Profit taking hits grains, immediate worries about Black Sea grain fade

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Published: April 2, 2014

A wave of technical selling pressured crop futures lower.

Wheat futures dropped below some chart support lines sparking selling and profit taking after recent gains.

The political conflict between Ukraine and Russia had been supporting wheat, but that factor is fading as grain exports from the Black Sea region have not slowed.

Also, showers are expected this week in dry areas of the U.S. southern Plains.

The pull back in wheat spilled over into corn. Cash prices had hit $5 per bushel, sparking increased farmer selling which also started to put downward pressure on corn futures.

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Western Canadian spring wheat prices were mostly lower, while those for durum were relatively steady during the week ended Aug. 14, 2025.

Technical weakness also hit soybeans when they failed to top $15 per bushel in overnight trade.

Soy oil closed lower after failing to hold support above the 200-day moving average.

May canola closed at $454.00, down $2.20 or 0.48%.

The veg oil complex, including canola, was higher early in the day with spill over support from talk on Tuesday that the U.S. Senate planned to reinstate the biodiesel $1 fuel credit. But then the technical-triggered selling began.

Bloomberg reported that Analyst Oil World said the second crop in South America, the one seeded directly after the current soybean harvest, might see more soybeans on soybean stubble and less corn this year as farmers chase the stronger oilseed price. This could lead to as much as three million tonnes of soybeans becoming available in June and July

There was talk that a couple of shiploads of Brazilian soybeans will arrive in the U.S. later this week.

Oilworld said it believed soybeans and soy meal were currently over valued.

While canola futures dropped a little today, the basis has improved in some areas recently as the pace of rail movement improves.

Losses overall were limited by concerns about the late spring in the U.S. northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies. This could delay seeding.

Reuters reported Western banks involved in global commodity trade flows are tightening payment procedures for steel and grain deals with Russia, having already taken similar steps for Ukraine due to its political upheaval.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola May 2014       454.00       -2.20       -0.48%

Canola Jul 2014       464.00       -2.10       -0.45%

Canola Nov 2014       479.30       -2.40       -0.50%

Canola Jan 2015       486.60       -2.40       -0.49%

Canola Mar 2015       493.50       -2.50       -0.50%

 

Milling Wheat May 2014       215.00       -5.00       -2.27%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       212.00       -5.00       -2.30%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       215.00       -4.00       -1.83%

 

Durum Wheat May 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       252.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley May 2014       130.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2014       1462.25       -22.25       -1.50%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1441.25       -16       -1.10%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1364.25       -16       -1.16%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1251.75       -13.75       -1.09%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1198       -9.25       -0.77%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1202.75       -9.25       -0.76%

 

Soybean Meal May 2014       476.5       -6.2       -1.28%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       464.1       -5.3       -1.13%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       435.7       -4.5       -1.02%

 

Soybean Oil May 2014       40.85       -0.55       -1.33%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       41.06       -0.5       -1.20%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       40.86       -0.47       -1.14%

 

Corn May 2014       495.75       -11.75       -2.32%

Corn Jul 2014       501       -11.5       -2.24%

Corn Sep 2014       498.5       -10       -1.97%

Corn Dec 2014       497       -8.5       -1.68%

Corn Mar 2015       504.25       -8       -1.56%

 

Oats May 2014       408.5       -2.75       -0.67%

Oats Jul 2014       364       -2.25       -0.61%

Oats Sep 2014       355       +2       +0.57%

Oats Dec 2014       349.5       +2.25       +0.65%

Oats Mar 2015       347.25       +4.25       +1.24%

 

Wheat May 2014       669.25       -16       -2.33%

Wheat Jul 2014       675       -15       -2.17%

Wheat Sep 2014       683.25       -14.5       -2.08%

Wheat Dec 2014       695.5       -13.75       -1.94%

Wheat Mar 2015       705       -12.75       -1.78%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2014       722.25       -13       -1.77%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       720.75       -13.25       -1.81%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       724.25       -12.25       -1.66%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       734       -12.25       -1.64%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       739.5       -11.5       -1.53%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat May 2014       738.75       -14.75       -1.96%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       742.25       -13.75       -1.82%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       747.5       -13.25       -1.74%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       758       -12.75       -1.65%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       761.25       -12.25       -1.58%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 12 cents at $99.62 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.65 cents US, down from 90.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1031 Cdn.

In late afternoon trade, the TSX composite was up 79.02 points, up 0.55 percent at 14,459.57.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up less than 0.5 percent.

The Dow and S&P 500 looked to close at record highs. The TSX is trading around a six-year high, and is up about 5.8 percent this year, performing better than U.S. indexes.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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