Once again, we saw the details during the later half of the forecast period fall apart a little bit, but the weather models were close on the big picture with cool air moving in and bringing unsettled conditions.
This forecast period starts with a broad, cool area of high pressure stretching across the Prairie provinces. The cool air combined with strong mid-summer sunshine is leading to partly cloudy skies along with the odd shower or thundershower.
This high is forecasted to slowly slide to the east, which will allow for a couple of things to happen. First, the general flow across the Prairies will become more southerly. This will help temperatures to moderate towards more seasonal values. Secondly, it will allow a broad and disorganized area of low pressure to take shape across the western Prairies.
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This area of low pressure will bring what looks to be an extended period of unsettled weather for that region. The unsettled conditions should spread eastward late in the forecast period. Should this pattern pan out, there will be a good chance at another shot of cool air moving in later next week. Longer range models are showing a return to warmer conditions during the last week of July.
Alberta
Expect a mix of sun and clouds from Wednesday to Friday with the chance of some afternoon showers or thundershowers. The best chance for these looks to be over the southwestern part of the province. Daytime highs will be on the cool side with most regions seeing afternoon temperatures in the 18 to 22 C range. Temperatures should warm into the 22 to 25 C range by Friday.
The weather models are showing a broad area of low pressure developing across the region over the weekend. This will bring increasing clouds to southern regions on Saturday with increasing chances of showers and thundershowers. This instability will spread northwards on Sunday and Monday, which will bring clouds and showers to central and then northern regions.
The main area of low pressure looks to pull off to the east late on Monday. This will allow for clearing over northern regions. A lingering trough of low pressure across the southern half of the province looks to keep that region in at least another day or two of clouds and showers. With all the clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be on the cool side with daytime highs in the 16 to 20 C range. Areas that see sunshine will be a little warmer.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Cool high pressure looks to dominate the weather picture across these two provinces from Wednesday to Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and seasonably cool temperatures. Expect daytime highs start off around 20 C on Wednesday and slowly warm into the mid twenties by the weekend as the controlling high slowly drifts eastwards to allow for a milder southerly flow to develop.
Over the weekend, a trough low pressure develop over Alberta with the main parent low taking shape over Montana. This low and accompanying trough will begin to lift northeastwards on Sunday, which will bring clouds, showers, and thundershowers to southern Saskatchewan.
The main low and trough look to be rather unorganized. The weather models show it taking until Tuesday to finally push off to the east. Expect more clouds than sun on Monday and Tuesday across both provinces with plenty of showers and thundershowers. With all the clouds and shower activity, expect daytime highs to only be in the 18 to 22 C range with those regions seeing more sunshine being a couple of degrees warmer.
Cool air looks to stick around until at least the following weekend, but as usual, that is a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.
