Oversold conditions, dry Kansas weather lift crop futures

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Published: May 15, 2012

The market appears to believe the recent selloff in crop prices was excessive and prices bounced back Tuesday.

Also, dry hot weather in Kansas supported wheat, which in turn lifted corn.

July canola at the close was $602.60, up $8.20.

November closed at $562.40, up $7.60.

• The Canola Council of Canada on Monday said frost hit fields in southern Alberta last weekend with temperatures as low as -8 C likely causing some damage. Strong winds in southern Manitoba on Monday and overnight might have damaged seedlings.

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Photo: JHVEPhoto/Getty Images Plus

U.S. grains: Soy futures top one-week high, US crop outlook limits gains

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit their highest level in more than a week on Thursday as technical buying helped the market recover from a three-month low reached on Monday, analysts said.

• There is a bit of support from this week’s Oil World report. It trimmed its European Union canola production forecast again, this time by 100,000 tonnes, to 18.1 million tonnes, down from 19.12 million last year. Oil World said the recent decline in oilseed prices was premature.

• There were rumours that China might be buying old crop U.S. soybeans.

• The strongest gains today were in wheat. Hot, dry weather expected this week in Kansas could hurt the winter wheat crop here.

On Monday the USDA lowered its ratings of the winter wheat crop. The good to excellent condition slipped three percentage points to 60 percent, although that rating is nearly double the readings of a year ago.

• In Kansas, the biggest producer of hard red winter wheat, the crop was rated 52 percent good to excellent, down eight percentage points from a week earlier.

• Reuters quoted a leading Russian grain analyst that spring drought conditions in parts of Russia’s key southern grain export regions have already inflicted irreversible damage on some of the crop. Rain is in the forecast but some damage will not bounce back.

• Last ditch efforts to convince parties in Greece to form a coalition government failed and so another election will be held in June.

• Spring wheat futures were supported by a rumour, later denied, that a large CHS elevator in Superior, Wisconsin on Lake Superior had shut down. If it had  been true farmers in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin would have fewer places to deliver their grain.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 12  $602.60, up $8.20       +1.38%

Canola Nov 12  $562.40, up $7.60       +1.37%

Canola Jan 13  $565.60, up $7.50       +1.34%

Canola Mar 13  $568.90, up $7.40       +1.32%

The best basis the previous day in the par region was $9 over the July contract, said  ICE Futures Canada.

Western Barley Jul 12  $237.00, unchanged

Western Barley Oct 12  $216.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 12  $242.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12  $247.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13  $256.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12  $275.60, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12  $280.10, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13  $286.70, unchanged

Barley Oct 12  $184.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12  $189.00, unchanged

Barley Mar 13  $192.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Jul 12  $14.13, up 26.0 cents       +1.87%

Soybeans Aug 12  $13.9375, up 21.0       +1.53%

Soybeans Sep 12  $13.40, up 13.25  +1.00%

Corn Jul 12  $5.9725, up 14.25  +2.44%

Corn Sep 12  $5.23, up 8.5       +1.65%

Corn Dec 12  $5.145, up 9.0       +1.78%

Oats Jul 12  $3.3025, up 1.75       +0.53%

Oats Sep 12  $3.3525, up 2.25  +0.68%

Oats Dec 12  $3.4125, up 3.75       +1.11%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 12  $7.505, up 24.75 cents       +3.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 12  $7.45, up 18.5       +2.55%

Spring Wheat Dec 12  $7.5425, up 20.0       +2.72%

Spring Wheat Mar 13  $7.605, up 17.5       +2.36%

The nearby light crude oil price in New York fell 80 cents to $93.98 per barrel.

The Bank of Canada’s noon hour rate put the loonie below par at 99.71 cents US, down from 99.81 the previous trading day.

The U.S. dollar was $1.0029 Cdn.

In early, unofficial tallies:

Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index fell 145.40 points, or 1.27 percent, to 11,343.13.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 125.25 points, or 0.98 percent, to close at 12,695.35.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 15.04 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,338.35.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 31.24 points, or 1.06 percent, to 2,902.58.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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