It was a “risk off” day in the markets but crop futures did better than other markets as corn edged higher on heat worries in the Midwest.
Canola rose, with new crop November posting the strongest gains as the loonie fell 0.82 cent.
Soybeans fell and the U.S. dollar rose with both caught up in the general market unease as traders’ anxieties again mounted over the euro zone debt crisis and China’s slowing economic growth.
July canola closed at $615, up 10 cents.
November closed at $575.40, up $3.70, perhaps influenced by the prospect of a cool, wet weekend.
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Forecasts call for rain to begin today in Alberta and spread across the Prairies over the weekend. That could end seeding hopes for some areas already suffering from excess moisture but generally canola looks good across the Prairies.
For the week, July canola rose $5.30 and November climbed $11.70.
• Weighing on canola is a much slower crush pace. Processors last week used only 45 percent of their capacity.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported members crushed 75,219 tonnes of canola in the week ending June 6, down 26 percent from the week before.
• Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to reach into the 90s F with little rain. That will stress plants and it supported corn prices. However large speculators reversed their net long position in Chicago Board of Trade corn futures and options for the first time in nearly two years, regulatory data released on Friday showed. That means that after two years of the big funds betting that corn will rise, the weight has now shifted to an expectation of lower prices.
• The same weather in the southern plains will speed the winter wheat harvest and that weighed on wheat values.
• Lanworth, a company that uses satellite monitoring to forecast crops today pegged U.S. corn production at 13.645 billion bushels, surprisingly lower than the USDA’s forecast last month of 14.790 billion bu., trade sources said.
U.S. soybean production was estimated at 3.019 billion bushels, below USDA’s forecast of 3.205 million bu.
If that proves true, it would be very bullish for prices. Last year in July Lanworth shocked the market with a forecast that was much lower than the USDA forecast. In the end, the crop proved even smaller than the Lanworth number.
• Crop conditions for soft wheat and corn in France rose over the past week, but durum condition were a little lower.
• Dry regions of Western Australia received rain this week.
• Crude oil in New York is trading down about $1.45 at $83.37
• Spain is reported to be set to ask for European aid for its banks this weekend to forestall worsening market turmoil. It would be the fourth and largest country to seek assistance since the euro zone debt crisis began.
Euro zone officials are meeting my phone Saturday to discuss responses to the crisis.
• The support to markets from China’s interest rate cut Thursday was short lived. Traders now fear China might have acted in advance of potentially grim economic indicators due this weekend, when it will release inflation, industrial output and trade data.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jul 12 $615.00, up $0.10 +0.02%
Canola Nov 12 $575.40, up $3.70 +0.65%
Canola Jan 13 $580.40, up $3.10 +0.54%
Canola Mar 13 $584.90, up $2.90 +0.50%
The best basis the previous day in the par region was $14 above the July contract, according to ICE Futures Canada.
The 14-day relative strength index for the July contract was 53.
Western Barley Jul 12 $237.00, unchanged
Western Barley Oct 12 $210.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $252.70, unchanged
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $260.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $269.00, unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $275.50, down $0.10 -0.04%
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $280.00, down $0.10 -0.04%
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $286.60, down $0.10 -0.03%
Barley Oct 12 $180.00, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $183.50, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $186.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Jul 12 $14.2625, down 1.75 cents -0.12%
Soybeans (P) Aug 12 $14.005, down 5.75 -0.41%
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $13.62, down 8.25 -0.60%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $13.325, down 8.75 -0.65%
Corn (P) Jul 12 $5.9954 +5.5 +0.93%
Corn (P) Sep 12 $5.51, up 8.0 +1.47%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $5.4375 +7.25 +1.35%
Oats (P) Jul 12 $3.0325, up 3.25 +1.08%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.0275, up 6.5 +2.19%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $2.9725, up 9.75 +3.39%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Jul 12 $7.6925, up 2.5 cents +0.33%
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $7.605, down 1.25 -0.16%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.6675, down 1.5 -0.20%
Nearby light crude oil in New York fell to $84.10, down 72 cents.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the Canadian dollar was 96.79 cents US, down from 97.62 the day before.
The U.S. dollar was $1.0332 Cdn.
In early tallies:
Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index closed down 91.49 points, or 0.79 percent, at 11,500.63
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 54.11 points, or 0.43 percent, to 12,515.07.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.96 points, or 0.45 percent, to 1,320.95.
The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 19.48 points, or 0.69 percent, to 2,850.50.
For the week, the TSX climbed 1.2 percent.
In New York the Dow rose 3.6 percent, the Nasdaq climbed four percent and the S&P 500 gained 3.7 percent for its best weekly gain of the year after big losses in May.
