Market wrap: winter wheat falls three pct on USDA report; canola little changed

U.S. winter wheat futures tumbled more than three percent on Wednesday, their largest losses in two weeks, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly supply and demand report boosted its production forecast for the winter wheat crop.

Chicago corn futures fell about two percent, pressured by fall ing wheat, as well as plentiful U.S. and global grain supplies.

Canola futures edged only slightly lower and soybean futures also were a bit lower.

July canola closed at $489.90, down $1.60 or 0.33 percent.

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November closed at $488.90, down $1 or 0.20 percent.

January closed at $486.10, up 10 cents.

The loonie rose with stronger crude oil futures.

The U.S. Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maps for the weekend now show only southwestern Manitoba getting a significant rain of more than a ½ inch.

A cold front is expected to move across the Prairies on the weekend and that could trigger some thunderstorms but WPC sees almost no rain across most of Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Following the USDA report, most-active Chicago July soft wheat reversed from an earlier two-month high, notching an ‘outside day’ on the charts that could signal a near-term high.

Euronext milling wheat futures also fell sharply even as scouts on a crop tour in France predicted dry weather could reduce yields in the European Union’s top producer.

But Minneapolis spring wheat fell a little less than Chicago, dropping less than three precent, reflecting dry conditions in the western Prairies. Just across the border though, North Dakota and Montana have had good rain in recent weeks.

The USDA forecast winter wheat production at 1.505 billion bushels, up 33 million bu from the outlook it issued last month.

In Kansas, the largest production state for winter wheat, the average yield was raised by five bushels to 37 bu. per acre.

USDA pegged 2015-16 domestic end stocks for wheat at 814 million bu., up from 793 million in May.

However, the rain that helped boost production in the southern U.S. Plains also caused isolated flooding and crop damage. The harvest is just getting under way and overall quality of the crop will not be determined for weeks, analysts say.

Before today, prices for wheat jumped this week on prospects for more showers during the next 10 days that could further damage wheat fields.

“The wheat numbers were high, and we are seeing some of the buying come out of the market. There is some damage (of U.S. wheat) out there, but they (USDA) wouldn’t have had a chance to get that into the report,” said Price Futures Group analyst Jack Scoville.

USDA lowered its soybean supply outlook for the 2015-16 crop year due to increased domestic use and raised its view of corn supplies due to lower ethanol production.

The USDA on June 30 will issue its annual acreage report: how much corn, soybeans, spring wheat and other crops were seeded this spring. That release typically results in more volatile swings in futures prices than the more routine monthly supply reports.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.29 to US$61.43 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US81.52 cents, up from 81.19 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2267.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 71.33 points, or 0.48 percent, at 14,889.04.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 236.36 points, or 1.33 percent, to 18,000.4, the S&P 500 gained 25.05 points, or 1.2 percent, to 2,105.2 and the Nasdaq Composite added 62.82 points, or 1.25 percent, to 5,076.69.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2015 489.90 -1.60 -0.33%

Canola Nov 2015 488.90 -1.00 -0.20%

Canola Jan 2016 486.10 +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Mar 2016 483.20 +0.50 +0.10%

Canola May 2016 480.20 +0.50 +0.10%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 217.00 -6.00 -2.69%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015 222.00 -6.00 -2.63%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015 222.00 -6.00 -2.63%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 205.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2015 200.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2015 205.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2015 949.5 -2 -0.21%

Soybeans Aug 2015 934.75 -2.25 -0.24%

Soybeans Sep 2015 923.5 -2.75 -0.30%

Soybeans Nov 2015 921.75 -3.25 -0.35%

Soybeans Jan 2016 929 -2.75 -0.30%

Soybeans Mar 2016 933.5 -2.5 -0.27%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 314.4 -2.1 -0.66%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015 306.7 -1.7 -0.55%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015 302.3 -2.1 -0.69%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 33.87 -0.06 -0.18%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015 33.91 -0.05 -0.15%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015 33.96 -0.05 -0.15%

Corn Jul 2015 357.25 -7.75 -2.12%

Corn Sep 2015 364.25 -8.25 -2.21%

Corn Dec 2015 375.25 -7.75 -2.02%

Corn Mar 2016 386.5 -7.5 -1.90%

Corn May 2016 393.75 -7.5 -1.87%

Oats Jul 2015 255.75 -1.25 -0.49%

Oats Sep 2015 261.5 +2 +0.77%

Oats Dec 2015 267.5 +2 +0.75%

Oats Mar 2016 274.25 +2.5 +0.92%

Oats May 2016 281 +2.5 +0.90%

Wheat Jul 2015 513.5 -18.75 -3.52%

Wheat Sep 2015 521.25 -17.5 -3.25%

Wheat Dec 2015 535 -17 -3.08%

Wheat Mar 2016 547.75 -17 -3.01%

Wheat May 2016 556.5 -16.25 -2.84%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 567 -15.75 -2.70%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 577 -16 -2.70%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 589.5 -16.5 -2.72%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 602.75 -16.25 -2.63%

Spring Wheat May 2016 611.5 -16.25 -2.59%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 530.5 -17.75 -3.24%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 541 -18.75 -3.35%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 557.5 -20 -3.46%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 570.75 -20 -3.39%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 579.5 -20.25 -3.38%

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