Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture report pegged U.S. wheat production a little higher than expected, but the trade continued to put more focus on the hot, dry weather affecting a large part of the North American grain belt.
Canola futures drifted a little lower as needed rain began creeping into the Prairie forecast.
USDA REPORT
The trade had thought USDA would trim its U.S. wheat production forecast because of the weather challenges that have faced the winter crop.
Instead, USDA slightly increased its forecast for winter wheat production.
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Lentil prices on the Canadian Prairies eased back during the week ended July 28, said Levon Sargsyan, broker with Johnston’s Grain. Sargsyan noted that’s due to the recent rains that brought relief to some of the dry areas of the region.
The change was not big. Overall it sees U.S. wheat production at 49.64 million tonnes, up from 49.54 the month before. That is still well down from last year’s bumper production of 62.86 million tonnes.
The USDA’s forecast for global wheat production rose to 739.5 million tonnes up 1.7 million from May due mostly to a two million tonne increase in the forecast for Russia’s crop.
Even with the adjustments, the Minneapolis spring wheat contract still closed the day higher, but Chicago and Kansas wheat were down a few cents per bushel.
The report left its U.S. corn production outlook unchanged. Corn futures have rallied about 5.4 percent since the start of May.
The USDA raised its estimate of Brazil’s recently harvest soybean crop to 114 million tonnes from 111.6 million in May.
ALBERTA CROP REPORT
Planting weather in Alberta was favourable in past week, bumping up overall completion to 91 percent.
The Peace region is farthest behind at only 70.6 percent complete. The northeast and northwest were both at about 90 percent.
The south and central regions are almost complete.
Weekly demand for canola bounced back
CRUSH
Processors crushed 159,372 tonnes of canola in the week ending June 7, said the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
That was an increase of about 15 percent from the week before.
It represented capacity use of 74.6 percent, behind the average to date of 88.5 percent.
For the year, 7.83 million tonnes of canola have been crushed, up from 6.97 million last year at the same point.
The pace of crush remains on track to hit the full year forecast of nine million tonnes.
EXPORTS
Weekly exports also picked up, rising to 205,900 tonnes, up from only 158,700 tonnes the week before.
For the year canola exports stand at 9.476 million tonnes, up from 8.698 million last year.
To match the forecast of 10.5 million tonnes of annual exports, the weekly export number for the eight remaining weeks of the crop year will have to be only about 125,000.
Export activity at the West Coast has slowed in recent weeks but it looks like it might be picking up again.
The number of ships in the lineup at Vancouver rose to 25 ships from 19 ships the week before.
Prince Rupert had five vessels in the lineup, up one from the week before.
WEATHER
Manitoba and northcentral Alberta are getting showers today. A system is moving from Alberta into Saskatchewan, raising the potential for thunderstorms.
However, widespread large accumulations are not expected.
The chance for significant accumulations increases by next Tuesday. Temperatures are also expected to be cooler.
North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota are also expected to get rain over the next five days but South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois remain fairly dry.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Thursday’s election in Britain went badly for the governing Conservative Party. It is now in a minority situation and will have to form a coalition.
Employers added 54,500 jobs last month, Statistics Canada said on Friday. It was he biggest increase since September and far exceeded forecasts for a gain of 11,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.6 percent, as expected, as more people looked for work.
Analysts said the strong showing and other signs of the Canadian economy gaining momentum raise the potential for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than later.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 19 cents to US$45.85 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.28 cents, up from 74.04 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.346.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 50.12 points, or 0.32 percent, at 15,473.21.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89.44 points, or 0.42 percent, to 21,271.97, while the S&P 500 lost 2.02 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,431.77.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 113.85 points, or 1.8 percent, to end at 6,207.92.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2017 514.60 +1.40 +0.27%
Canola Nov 2017 494.90 -0.60 -0.12%
Canola Jan 2018 500.70 -0.50 -0.10%
Canola Mar 2018 506.10 -0.60 -0.12%
Canola May 2018 508.30 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 261.00 -1.00 -0.38%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 257.00 -1.00 -0.39%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 260.00 -1.00 -0.38%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 279.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 269.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 269.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2017 941.50 +3.50 +0.37%
Soybeans Aug 2017 945.00 +3.25 +0.35%
Soybeans Sep 2017 945.50 +3.75 +0.40%
Soybeans Nov 2017 948.25 +4.50 +0.48%
Soybeans Jan 2018 955.50 +4.25 +0.45%
Soybeans Mar 2018 958.75 +4.50 +0.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 305.90 -0.20 -0.07%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 307.50 -0.20 -0.06%
Soybean Meal Sep 2017 308.70 unch 0.00%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.29 +0.44 +1.38%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.41 +0.45 +1.41%
Soybean Oil Sep 2017 32.53 +0.44 +1.37%
Corn Jul 2017 387.75 +2.00 +0.52%
Corn Sep 2017 395.75 +2.25 +0.57%
Corn Dec 2017 406.00 +2.25 +0.56%
Corn Mar 2018 414.75 +3.00 +0.73%
Corn May 2018 420.00 +3.25 +0.78%
Oats Jul 2017 252.25 +7.25 +2.96%
Oats Sep 2017 244.25 +7.25 +3.06%
Oats Dec 2017 239.25 +6.25 +2.68%
Oats Mar 2018 233.50 +6.00 +2.64%
Oats May 2018 234.00 +6.00 +2.63%
Wheat Jul 2017 445.75 -3.50 -0.78%
Wheat Sep 2017 460.00 -3.25 -0.70%
Wheat Dec 2017 481.25 -3.25 -0.67%
Wheat Mar 2018 498.00 -3.50 -0.70%
Wheat May 2018 509.75 -3.50 -0.68%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 606.50 +2.25 +0.37%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 611.00 +2.50 +0.41%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 608.50 +2.25 +0.37%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 609.75 +2.25 +0.37%
Spring Wheat May 2018 609.25 +1.00 +0.16%
Kansas
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 451.50 -2.25 -0.50%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 469.25 -1.50 -0.32%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 494.25 -1.25 -0.25%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 507.75 -1.50 -0.29%
Hard Red Wheat May 2018 518.75 -1.25 -0.24%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 131.25 -0.13 -0.10%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 123.85 -0.18 -0.15%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 119.88 -0.52 -0.43%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 154.18 +0.23 +0.15%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 153.62 +0.37 +0.24%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 152.28 +0.53 +0.35%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 82.48 +0.45 +0.55%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 82.70 +0.50 +0.61%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 82.05 +0.38 +0.47%
