Lower soy a drag on canola futures

WINNIPEG (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were weaker Friday, due to downward pressure from the Chicago soy complex.

The complex dropped as United States President Donald Trump said China must do more than buy more U.S. farm goods to get a trade deal. He also stated an interim trade deal is now off the table for next month’s top-level negotiations.

The Prairie canola harvest has continued at slow pace. According to this week’s crop reports, Manitoba farmers were 40 percent complete, while Alberta and Saskatchewan growers were at six percent. A turn of good weather for next week should result in great improvements.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported that 32,000 tonnes of canola was exported for the week ended Sept. 15. That was a 70 percent drop from the previous week’s exports.

The Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon Friday at 75.32 U.S. cents after closing yesterday at 75.42.

There were 16,987 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 26,716 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,914 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 447.40 dn 3.50
Jan 455.80 dn 3.80
Mar 464.00 dn 4.30
May 471.70 dn 4.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Friday, due to developments in the United States/China trade war.

Trade talks between deputy negotiators from the U.S. and China continued with most of the discussions devoted to agriculture. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated China needs to do more than buy U.S. farm goods to get a trade deal. Furthermore, Trump has ruled out an interim agreement for October’s top-level negotiations and said he doesn’t need a deal prior to the 2020 U.S. elections. In turn, the Chinese trade delegation cut short its tour of farms in the Midwest.

A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that farm debt has climbed to nearly US$416 billion, for the highest levels since the early 1980s.

Precipitation from Tropical Storm Imelda has been forecast to dump heavy rain on the U.S. Midwest, while the eastern Corn Belt is expected to remain dry.

There have been reports that estimated the 2020 U.S. soybean crop to be 85.0 million acres, up from this year’s 80.0 million.

CORN futures were lower on Friday on spillover from soybeans.

Reports estimated the 2020 U.S. corn crop to be 95.0 million acres, up from this year’s 91.7 million.

A Taiwan trade delegation signed an agreement with the U.S. to purchase 5 million tonnes of corn and 500,000 tonnes of dried distillers grains over the next two years.

Corn yields in Ukraine were reported to be 95.0 bushels per acre, up eight per cent from last year.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Friday, with losses for Chicago and Kansas City and gains for Minneapolis.

With the wet conditions across the Northern Plains, the U.S. spring wheat harvest has been delayed, which has created concerns the crop could lose its quality.

Cocreal increased its estimate of the European Union wheat crop to 143.3 million tonnes for a gain of 3.0 million.

IKAR has maintained its estimate of Russia’s wheat production at 75.0 million tonnes. The most recent report from the USDA put Russian wheat at 72.5 million tonnes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down four cents at US$58.09 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.42 cents, down from 75.33 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3275.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19 447.40s -3.50 -0.78%

Canola Jan 20 455.80s -3.80 -0.83%

Canola Mar 20 464.00s -4.30 -0.92%

Canola May 20 471.70s -4.50 -0.94%

Canola Jul 20 477.90s -4.60 -0.95%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Nov 19 882-6s -10-2 -1.15%

Soybean Jan 20 896-4s -9-4 -1.05%

Soybean Mar 20 908-6s -9-4 -1.03%

Soybean May 20 919-2s -9-4 -1.02%

Soybean Jul 20 928-6s -8-6 -0.93%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 19 291.1s -1.1 -0.38%

Soybean Meal Dec 19 295.0s -1.1 -0.37%

Soybean Meal Jan 20 296.7s -1.0 -0.34%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 19 29.28s -0.53 -1.78%

Soybean Oil Dec 19 29.40s -0.57 -1.90%

Soybean Oil Jan 20 29.64s -0.56 -1.85%

 

Corn Dec 19 370-6s -2-0 -0.54%

Corn Mar 20 381-6s -2-2 -0.59%

Corn May 20 389-4s -2-2 -0.57%

Corn Jul 20 395-2s -2-2 -0.57%

Corn Sep 20 396-6s -3-0 -0.75%

 

Oats Dec 19 275-6s -1-0 -0.36%

Oats Mar 20 280-6s -0-4 -0.18%

Oats May 20 280-0s -0-4 -0.18%

Oats Jul 20 280-4s -0-2 -0.09%

Oats Sep 20 279-6s +0-2 +0.09%

 

Wheat Dec 19 484-2s -3-6 -0.77%

Wheat Mar 20 491-0s -3-2 -0.66%

Wheat May 20 495-6s -3-0 -0.60%

Wheat Jul 20 499-6s -2-4 -0.50%

Wheat Sep 20 507-2s -2-4 -0.49%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 19 524-2s +4-0 +0.77%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 537-4s +3-6 +0.70%

Spring Wheat May 20 548-4s +4-0 +0.73%

Spring Wheat Jul 20 557-4s +3-2 +0.59%

Spring Wheat Sep 20 566-6s +3-0 +0.53%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 407-4s -2-0 -0.49%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 421-0s -2-2 -0.53%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 430-6s -2-2 -0.52%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 440-2s -2-0 -0.45%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 20 451-6s -2-0 -0.44%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 19 99.350s -0.450 -0.45%

Live Cattle Dec 19 105.150s -0.675 -0.64%

Live Cattle Feb 20 112.075s -0.450 -0.40%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 140.325s +0.375 +0.27%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 139.200s +0.275 +0.20%

Feeder Cattle Nov 19 137.025s -0.225 -0.16%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 19 60.350s -1.050 -1.71%

Lean Hogs Dec 19 66.250s -1.700 -2.50%

Lean Hogs Feb 20 73.900s -1.150 -1.53%

 

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