Dryness in Argentina again captured headlines Tuesday propelling oilseed futures higher, with good economic news from China and Germany providing additional support.
March canola rose $6.10 to close at $521.10.
• Argentina is back in a heat wave with no rain forecast until the coming weekend and then amounts are not expected to be large.
• Monthly U.S. soybean crush data from December was stronger than expected, buoying soybean prices.
• Influential analyst Oil World cut its forecasts of the 2012 soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 3.8 million tonnes.
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It put Argentina’s 2012 soybean crop at 50 million tonnes down from 52 million it forecast in December.
Last year it produced 49.2 million tonnes.
USDA forecasts Argentine production at 50.5 million tonnes
Oil World pegged Brazil crop at 71 million tonnes from the 72.8 million it forecast in December. This would be down on the 75.3 million tonnes Brazil harvested in 2011.
USDA’s number is 74 million tonnes.
Oil World also said Paraguay’s crop would drop to six million tonnes from 8.37 million in 2011.
Oil World’s Thomas Mielke is at Brandon Ag Days this week. Look for a story on his presentation in the Jan. 26 Western Producer.
• China reported its economy grew 8.9 percent in the final quarter of last year, down from 9.1 per cent in the third quarter and the slowest in 2.5 years. That was better than the 8.7 percent the market expected. But some observers believe the slowing growth will cause Beijing to undertake some stimulous after a year when it tried to slow the economy to control inflation.
• The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today.
• A monthly survey of German investor confidence rose sharply in January giving hope that Europe’s top economy remains resilient to the eurozone debt crisis.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Mar 12 $521.10, up $6.10 (+1.18%)
Canola May 12 $524.10, up $5.00 (+0.96%)
Canola Jul 12 $524.70, up $3.00 (+0.58%)
Canola Jan 13 $507.10, up $0.40 (+0.08%)
The previous trading day’s best basis was $12.20 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg.
The January contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 52.
Western Barley Mar 12 $212.00 unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Mar 12 $11.835, up 25.25 cents (+2.18%)
Soybeans May 12 $11.925, up 24.75 (+2.12%)
Soybeans Jan 13 $11.985, up 19.75 (+1.68%)
Corn Mar 12 $6.04, up 4.5 (+0.75%)
Corn Dec 12 $5.575, up 2.25 (+0.41%)
Oats Mar 12 $2.8675, up 4.25 (+1.50%)
Oats Dec 12 $3.03, up 4.5 (+1.51%)
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.085, up 7.25 cents (+0.90%)
Spring Wheat May 12 $7.9225, up 6.5 (+0.83%)
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.72, up 0.5 (+0.06%)
Nearby light crude oil in New York rose $2.01 to settle at $100.71 a barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 98.70 cents US, up from 98.33 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0132 Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite unofficially ended down 25.77 points, or 0.21 percent, at 12,232.83. The Standard and Poor’s 500 was up 4.58 points, or 0.36 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,293.67.
