Harvest progress, soy weaken canola futures

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished weaker on Thursday, due to pressure from Chicago soyoil and the continuing Prairie harvest.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, soyoil lost almost a quarter of a cent, which helped to pull down canola values.

The Prairie harvest has continued despite difficult conditions. In Manitoba, the overall harvest reached 85 percent complete, with canola at 90 percent finished. In Saskatchewan, farmers hit 90 percent done province-wide, with canola 88 percent in the bin. Alberta releases its weekly crop progress report on Friday.

There were 28,224 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 26,565 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,612 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 446.40 dn 3.50
Jan 457.40 dn 2.20
Mar 466.80 dn 2.20
May 475.60 dn 1.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were steady to higher on Thursday, on improvements in export sales.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its weekly export sales report Thursday morning for the week ended Oct. 24. Soybeans for the 2019/20 marketing year came in at 943,600 tonnes. That’s a 99 percent jump from last week, but a 39 percent drop the four-week average. Trade expectations had been 500,000 to 1.1 million tonnes.

Shipments headed abroad amounted to 1.723 million tonnes, which was a gain of 25 percent over the previous week and 63 points above the four-week average. Again China led the way with 536,000 tonnes.

Soymeal and cake export sales of 2019/20 came to 179,100 tonnes with 400 tonnes of 2020/21. Market predictions expected 100,000 to 250,000 tonnes. Meal/cake export shipments were 147,900 tonnes.

Soyoil export sales were 29,900 tonnes of 2019/20 and 200 tonnes of 2020/2021. Expectations were for zero to 24,000 tonnes. Soyoil exports were 9,700 tonnes.

The USDA reported the September crush amounted to 161.8 million bushels of soybeans. That’s down from the 177.5 million bushels in August, and under the 169.6 million in September 2018. Soyoil stocks slipped from 1.806 billion pounds in August to 1.792 billion for September.

Despite the Chilean president cancelling the APEC Summit that was to be in the capital of Santiago next month, the U.S. and China said they are pressing ahead with the signing of their partial trade deal. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump were to sign the trade pact at the summit. Massive anti-poverty demonstrations, which included violent clashes between police and demonstrators, led to the summit’s cancellation.

Also, on U.S./China trade, the latter will reportedly remove extra tariffs on imported U.S. farm products to help with the purchase of US$50 billion of such goods. The move would allow Chinese buyers to make purchases based on market conditions.

CORN futures were steady to lower on Thursday as export sales continue to lag well behind pace.

The USDA said export sales were 549,100 tonnes, which was a 12 percent gain from last week and 29 percent above the four-week average. Nevertheless, they stand at 65.5 percent of this time last year. Export shipments amounted to 494,300 tonnes, for a small gain of one per cent and unchanged when compared to the four-week average.

Zimbabwe reported it requires 850,000 tonnes of corn following a severe drought. Approximately half of the country’s population is said to be in need of food aid.

WHEAT futures trade either side of steady on Thursday, with Chicago slightly lower and Kansas City and Minneapolis slightly higher.

The USDA reported wheat export sales of 493,800 tonnes, which was an 88 per cent increase from the previous week and 31 points higher than the four-week average. Also, the amount was near the top of market expectations. Export shipments tallied 422,500 tonnes, for a 15 per cent decrease from the previous week and 18 below the average.

Rain in Argentina proved to be too late to help with the country’s 2019/20 wheat crop. Agritrend reduced its projections from 21.0 million tonnes to a range of 19.0 million to 19.5 million, based on yields dropping by approximately 12.5 per cent.

Egypt, the world’s largest importers of wheat, indicated it has enough strategic reserves to last almost five months.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 88 cents at US$54.18 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.99 cents, down from 76.03 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3160.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19 446.40s -3.50 -0.78%

Canola Jan 20 457.40s -2.20 -0.48%

Canola Mar 20 466.80s -2.20 -0.47%

Canola May 20 475.60s -1.90 -0.40%

Canola Jul 20 482.80s -1.70 -0.35%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Nov 19 916-6s +0-6 +0.08%

Soybean Jan 20 932-2s +1-6 +0.19%

Soybean Mar 20 945-2s +1-6 +0.19%

Soybean May 20 957-0s +2-0 +0.21%

Soybean Jul 20 967-2s +2-0 +0.21%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 19 304.4s +2.2 +0.73%

Soybean Meal Jan 20 306.9s +2.1 +0.69%

Soybean Meal Mar 20 310.5s +2.0 +0.65%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 19 30.75s -0.23 -0.74%

Soybean Oil Jan 20 30.97s -0.23 -0.74%

Soybean Oil Mar 20 31.25s -0.23 -0.73%

 

Corn Dec 19 390-0s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn Mar 20 398-6s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn May 20 404-6s -0-4 -0.12%

Corn Jul 20 410-0s -0-4 -0.12%

Corn Sep 20 402-0s -1-0 -0.25%

 

Oats Dec 19 297-2s +0-4 +0.17%

Oats Mar 20 293-4s unch unch

Oats May 20 293-4s +1-2 +0.43%

Oats Jul 20 291-6s +1-4 +0.52%

Oats Sep 20 283-0s +1-2 +0.44%

 

Wheat Dec 19 508-6s -0-4 -0.10%

Wheat Mar 20 514-6s -0-2 -0.05%

Wheat May 20 519-2s -0-4 -0.10%

Wheat Jul 20 523-2s -1-2 -0.24%

Wheat Sep 20 530-0s -2-0 -0.38%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 19 524-0s +0-4 +0.10%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 540-4s +1-6 +0.32%

Spring Wheat May 20 551-0s +2-2 +0.41%

Spring Wheat Jul 20 559-6s +3-0 +0.54%

Spring Wheat Sep 20 567-2s +2-6 +0.49%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 419-6s +1-4 +0.36%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 432-2s +1-6 +0.41%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 440-6s +1-4 +0.34%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 449-0s +1-2 +0.28%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 20 458-4s +0-6 +0.16%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 19 111.675s -1.700 -1.50%

Live Cattle Dec 19 117.225s -1.075 -0.91%

Live Cattle Feb 20 122.350s -0.750 -0.61%

 

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 145.950s -0.075 -0.05%

Feeder Cattle Nov 19 147.600s -0.275 -0.19%

Feeder Cattle Jan 20 144.675s -0.125 -0.09%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 19 66.000s +0.225 +0.34%

Lean Hogs Feb 20 73.325s +0.050 +0.07%

Lean Hogs Apr 20 79.850s +0.275 +0.35%

 

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