NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) – U.S. farmers will plant 11.26 million cotton acres in 2014, up 8 percent from the previous year, as cotton grows increasingly competitive against corn and soybeans, a survey of growers conducted by the National Cotton Council showed on Saturday.
That total would mark the end of a trend over the previous two seasons of lower acreage as farmers opted for more lucrative crops, including corn and soybeans.
It would also leave the U.S. crop of about 16.4 million bales in the 2014/15 crop year that begins on Aug. 1, up 24 percent from this season,
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After corn prices sank precipitously and soybean prices also eroded, cotton will recover some acres in key growing regions, said Gary Adams, NCC’s vice president of economics and policy analysis.
Cotton prices rose over 10 percent in 2013 after two years of losses, while grains markets dropped.
The NCC’s survey results are 2 percent higher than a Reuters survey published last month that pegged plantings at 11 million acres.
Farmers’ planting intentions have been moving in “lockstep” with pricing signals, Adams told a group of traders, growers, and millers on Saturday.
Total U.S. upland acres will rise to 11.04 million acres from 10.21 million in 2013, according to the council’s survey, which was conducted from Dec. 18 to Jan. 17. Extra-long staple cotton will gain acres, to 225,000 from 201,000 previously.
The greatest uncertainty over acreage remains California, farmers and traders gathered at the conference said.
Arizona’s upland acres are set to fall dramatically to 68,000 acres from 93,000 as farmers switch to extra-long staple cotton and as a severe drought plagues the state.
A GLOBAL OUTLOOK WITH ‘BEARISH UNDERTONES’
World farmers will slightly boost cotton acres to 62.1 million acres in 2014, up from about 61.4 million acres last year, the association said.
Further, U.S. exporters will face increased competition in the 2014/15 crop year as Beijing is expected to begin overhauling its stockpiling program which has led to voracious demand for foreign fiber.
NCC is expecting U.S. exports to decline to 9.98 million bales in the 2014/15 crop year, down from a projected 10.5 million bales this season.
How Beijing chooses to unwind the program and whittle down its stocks remains unclear, and stands to leave cotton prices down sharply.
The forecast has “bearish undertones,” Adams told Reuters. “But when there’s so much uncertainty (over China’s policy), it’s hard to say.”
