Tuesday was another bland August day in the crop markets, with most crop futures moving only a few cents.
Soybeans and canola did a switcheroo with wheat and corn, with the oilseeds slightly lower today compared to slightly higher yesterday, while wheat contracts were slightly higher today versus slightly lower yesterday.
But all crop futures are staying a levels near lows, revealing the market’s growing confidence that U.S. and other northern hemisphere growers will bring in a big crop within weeks.
“The bottom line is that everything is on course,” said Errol Anderson of Calgary’s Pro Market Communications.
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“The pressure of a massive U.S. crop is pressuring us.”
Crop ratings from official agencies and the present U.S. Pro Farmer tour of the Midwest aren’t challenging the idea that both corn and soybean stocks will be ample this fall, offering little relief to the relentless price declines of recent months.
December 2014 Chicago corn futures, which began May at over $5 per bushel, have been clinging to a possible support line around $3.70 per bu.
Soybean futures rose above $12.60 per bu. in May but now are having trouble keeping above $10.50. Spring wheat futures have managed to keep just above $6.20 per bu.
Anderson said he thinks canola futures, which have recently fallen beneath $430 per tonne from the $490s in May, could actually be oversold because demand is good and a bounce could be coming.
However, canola basis in Western Canada has gotten worse for September delivery as buyers get ready for what they assume will be a big crop.
Anderson said a bright spot for canola futures is the rise of the American dollar. As the Canadian dollar has weakened, the loonie-denominated canola contract has taken strength.
World stock markets had an up day, cheered by the failure of the world’s many geopolitical hot spots to get worse and the U.S. recording an unexpectedly good July home construction number.
Tuesday’s best stock markets headline, by far, was this:
“Swift, Bieber scents stink up Elizabeth Arden’s 4Q.”
The perfume company said it lost more money in its most recent quarter because celebrity scents, particularly its Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber odours, had sold poorly.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 426.90 -4.80 -1.11%
Canola Jan 2015 431.40 -5.00 -1.15%
Canola Mar 2015 434.30 -4.90 -1.12%
Canola May 2015 432.50 -4.90 -1.12%
Canola Jul 2015 429.30 -4.80 -1.11%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 203.00 +3.00
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 208.00 +2.00
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 216.00 +2.00
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 135.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 138.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2014 1120.25 +4.75 +0.43%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1052.75 -5 -0.47%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1060.5 -6 -0.56%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1068 -6.5 -0.60%
Soybeans May 2015 1073.75 -7 -0.65%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1078.25 -7.75 -0.71%
Soybean Meal Sep 2014 399.8 +7.7 +1.96%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014 359.1 -0.9 -0.25%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 352.7 -2.4 -0.68%
Soybean Oil Sep 2014 32.66 -0.3 -0.91%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014 32.75 -0.3 -0.91%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 33.01 -0.32 -0.96%
Corn Sep 2014 362.5 +1.75 +0.49%
Corn Dec 2014 372.25 +0.75 +0.20%
Corn Mar 2015 385.5 +0.5 +0.13%
Corn May 2015 393.5 +0.25 +0.06%
Corn Jul 2015 400.25 +0.25 +0.06%
Oats Sep 2014 370.25 -0.5 -0.13%
Oats Dec 2014 339.75 +0.75 +0.22%
Oats Mar 2015 323.25 +2 +0.62%
Oats May 2015 314.75 +2.75 +0.88%
Oats Jul 2015 312 +2.25 +0.73%
Wheat Sep 2014 546 +3.5 +0.65%
Wheat Dec 2014 558.5 +4.25 +0.77%
Wheat Mar 2015 577.25 +3.5 +0.61%
Wheat May 2015 587.5 +2.75 +0.47%
Wheat Jul 2015 596 +2.75 +0.46%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 616.75 +8.5 +1.40%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 625.25 +7.5 +1.21%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 637.25 +5.5 +0.87%
Spring Wheat May 2015 645.75 +4.75 +0.74%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 653.5 +4.75 +0.73%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014 624.5 +6.75 +1.09%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 637.5 +6 +0.95%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 646.25 +5.5 +0.86%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 650.75 +4.5 +0.70%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 641.75 +3.5 +0.55%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.93 at $94.48 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.50 cents US, down from 91.84 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0929 Cdn.
