Canola futures prices rose Thursday on disappointing early yields while soybeans fell and wheat posted solid gains on worries about how much Black Sea producers will be able to export.
It was a “risk on” day generally in all markets with stocks, crude oil, gold and copper up on hopes that Europe and China will take measures to stimulate their economies.
November canola closed at $610.80, up $2.80, but off the day’s high.
Frost might have touched some southern Saskatchewan crops early this morning but generally it appears temperatures were well above the freezing point. Perhaps Regina was the coldest. The Weather Network says the temperature in Regina fell to 4 C early this morning.
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• Canola is getting support from reports that early harvested canola is producing lower than expected yields.
The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report today says four percent of the overall crop is harvested and another seven percent is in swath. The most harvest progress is in winter crops and pulses. Eleven percent of canola has been swathed.
There are indications that sclerotinia, aster yellows, bertha armyworms and flea beetles will reduce canola yield in some regions. Indeed there are mentions in several regions that canola yields might not be as good as initially expected due to disease and insects. This mirrors reports from Manitoba.
• Soybeans today edged back on weaker cash demand after gaining earlier in the week when exporters improved basis to pry soybean supplies from farmers to meet immediate sale orders.
Last week, export sales for this soybean crop, which ends Aug. 31 in the U.S., and the new crop combined topped analysts’ expectation and were the largest since June, according to USDA figures.
• Weather forecasts for the Midwest show improving opportunity for significant rain next week.
• Wheat is the best performer today as traders assess news from SovEcon of tight Aug. 1 grain stocks in Russia, the lowest since 2006. Wheat stocks are the lowest since 2003. The new crop will not help replenish stocks. The Russian harvest is about half complete and so far wheat yields are down about 30 percent from last year.
The situation has revived trader speculation that Russia might yet restrict wheat exports. Russian officials said last week that they do not plan restrictions at least until the end of December. SovEcon noted that if the current pace of Russian exports continues, it would run out of its exportable surplus by November.
There is market speculation that if Russia imposes export restrictions, Ukraine will follow.
• Wheat is also supported by declining projections for the coming year’s wheat crop in Argentina. The government there forecasts wheat area will fall to 9.14 million acres, down from 9.44 million projected last month. That would be down 20 percent from last year. Farmers there are nearing the end of their wheat seeding season.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 12 $610.80, up $2.80 +0.46%
Canola Jan 13 $615.20, up $2.50 +0.41%
Canola Mar 13 $617.30, up $2.80 +0.46%
Canola May 13 $610.30, down $0.20 -0.03%
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $292.40 unchanged
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $298.00 unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $308.00 unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $299.20 unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $303.70 unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $310.30 unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $264.50 unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $269.50 unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $272.50 unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $16.5625, down 3.5 -0.21%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $16.235 -11.0 -0.67%
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $16.1475, down 10.75 -0.66%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $15.3425, down 6.75 -0.44%
Corn (P) Sep 12 $7.9775, up 3.75 +0.47%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $8.07 +3.0 +0.37%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $8.07 +2.75 +0.34%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.835, up 7.25 +1.93%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.8325, up 7.0 +1.86%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.85, up 7.0 +1.85%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.215, up 8.0 cents +0.88%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.32, up 8.5 +0.92%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.4025, up 8.25 +0.89%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.47, up 10.75 +1.15%
Nearby crude oil in New York rose $1.27 to $95.60 per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie is $1.012 US, up from $1.011 the day before.
The U.S. buck is 98.81 cents Cdn.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 127.14 points, or 1.1 percent, to close at 12,032.58. It last closed above 12,000 on May 3.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 85.33 points, or 0.65 percent, to 13,250.11.
The S&P 500 Index gained 9.99 points, or 0.71 percent, to 1,415.52.
The Nasdaq Composite added 31.46 points, or 1.04 percent, to 3,062.39.
