Currency moves weaken wheat, support canola

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Published: May 26, 2015

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A stronger U.S. dollar overshadowed the torrential rain in the U.S. southern Plains, causing winter wheat futures to plunge more than four percent and spring wheat to drop more than two percent.
As the U.S. buck rose, the loonie fell, providing support for canola futures, with July closing up about one percent.
Additional support for canola came from soybean oil, which was the only Chicago crop agriculture commodity to rise today, largely on technical factors such as the unwinding of long soymeal-short soyoil spreads.

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The stronger soy oil market helped spark a rally in Malaysian palm oil, which was also buoyed by reports of strong palm export demand.
The dry weather affecting the western Prairies also supported canola, as did expectations for tight year-end stocks.
July canola closed at $468.70, up $4.90 or 1.06 percent.
Cash canola prices as reported at the PDQinfo.ca website, range from a low of $413.91 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to a high of $451.76 in Manitoba.
The strong U.S. dollar, propelled by increasing signs that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year, hit wheat the hardest.
Wheat had already rallied last week on expectations of heavy rain in the southern Plains so there was an element of “buy the rumour, sell the fact” in today’s market.
Also it is not clear how much damage the rain is causing. Rainfall amounts in Kansas have been less drastic and could help the crop there.
Today’s USDA weekly winter wheat condition report showed the condition of the national crop was unchanged from the previous week at 45 percent good to excellent.
By state, Kansas and Texas conditions improved slightly while Oklahoma deteriorated a little, with the good to excellent rating in the latter falling to 36 percent from 39 the previous week.
That report was as of Sunday. Even if production is reduced, a stronger dollar makes it harder to make export sales when there is strong competition from Europe and the Black Sea.
The weakness in wheat spilled over into corn, which fell about 1.5 percent.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.69 to US$58.03 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.45 cents, down from 81.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2430.
Ideas that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to manage the heat up of the U.S. economy pressured Wall Street lower.
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at about 15,050.81, down 136.59 points or 0.90 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 188.95 points, or 1.04 percent, to 18,043.07, the S&P 500 lost 21.79 points, or 1.02 percent, to 2,104.27 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.61 points, or 1.11 percent, to 5,032.75.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 468.70 +4.90 +1.06%
Canola Nov 2015 457.90 +3.80 +0.84%
Canola Jan 2016 456.50 +2.80 +0.62%
Canola Mar 2016 455.50 +2.80 +0.62%
Canola May 2016 454.50 +2.80 +0.62%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 213.00 -6.00 -2.74%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 215.00 -6.00 -2.71%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 215.00 -6.00 -2.71%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 191.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 177.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 922.5 -1.75 -0.19%
Soybeans Aug 2015 913.25 -3 -0.33%
Soybeans Sep 2015 905 -2.5 -0.28%
Soybeans Nov 2015 904.75 -2.25 -0.25%
Soybeans Jan 2016 912.25 -2.5 -0.27%
Soybeans Mar 2016 917 -3.75 -0.41%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 301.9 -2.3 -0.76%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 297.3 -2.6 -0.87%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 294.8 -2.3 -0.77%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.14 +0.5 +1.58%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 32.2 +0.51 +1.61%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 32.25 +0.52 +1.64%

Corn Jul 2015 355 -5 -1.39%
Corn Sep 2015 362 -4.75 -1.30%
Corn Dec 2015 373.25 -4.5 -1.19%
Corn Mar 2016 384.25 -4 -1.03%
Corn May 2016 391.5 -3.75 -0.95%

Oats Jul 2015 238.5 -4 -1.65%
Oats Sep 2015 244.5 -3.75 -1.51%
Oats Dec 2015 253.5 -3.5 -1.36%
Oats Mar 2016 259.75 -3.25 -1.24%
Oats May 2016 266.5 -3.25 -1.20%

Wheat Jul 2015 493.5 -21.75 -4.22%
Wheat Sep 2015 501 -22 -4.21%
Wheat Dec 2015 515.75 -21.25 -3.96%
Wheat Mar 2016 531.5 -20 -3.63%
Wheat May 2016 540.75 -19.5 -3.48%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 553.25 -15.5 -2.73%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 564.25 -15.75 -2.72%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 577 -16.25 -2.74%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 589.5 -16.25 -2.68%
Spring Wheat May 2016 598.5 -15.75 -2.56%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 524.5 -22 -4.03%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 534.25 -22.75 -4.08%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 552.75 -20.75 -3.62%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 565.5 -20.75 -3.54%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 574.25 -19.75 -3.32%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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