Crop market wrap - canola falls $5.20 on week

March canola climbed back to close above $490 per tonne as crop and stock markets closed the week on a more solid footing than they had displayed for most of the week.

Wheat futures rallied the most on Friday, propelled by big funds that decided to reduce their risk exposure from a large net short position.

Chicago wheat and corn hit contract lows early this week and funds lost their appetite for driving prices lower ahead of the host of U.S. Department of Agriculture reports due Tuesday that could always hold surprises.

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U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn fall on harvest pressure

U.S. corn and soybean futures were lower on Monday in choppy trade, pressured by the expanding Midwest harvest of both crops, but uncertainty about quarterly government stocks data due on Tuesday kept a floor under prices, analysts said.

Gains in wheat though were limited by ample global supplies and slow U.S. exports.

March canola closed at $481.30 a tonne, up $3.30.

But for the week it fell $5.20.

Weekly canola crush slipped a little but remained robust.

The crush to Jan. 6 was 156,109 tonnes, down 5.5 percent from the week before. It represented 75.6 percent of capacity, which was less than the average this year.

But the year to date total was 3.48 million tonnes, up almost 13 percent from the same time last year.

Canola exports to Jan. 3 were 4.09 million tonnes, up almost 12 percent over last year at the same point.

Chicago Board of Trade March wheat ended up 10 cents, or 2.1 percent, at a 2 ½ week high on the short-covering rally. For the week, the contract gained 1.8 percent, its fourth straight weekly rise.

March corn gained 4 cents to close at $3.57 a bushel, up 1.1 percent on the day but down 0.5 percent on the week, the contract’s fifth straight weekly loss.

March soybeans added ¾ cent to settle at $8.65 ¼ a bushel, up a penny for the week. It was, however, the first weekly increase for soybeans in three weeks.

Argentine farmers were expected to cut corn seeding this year by about 16 percent, but with the more liberal farm policies of new president Mauricio Macri, growers are now expected to seed about the same area as last year, 8.4 million acres.

Reuters polls of traders show the average estimate for Dec. 1 corn stocks at 11.237 billion bushels. That would be the highest-ever Dec. 1 stocks, reflecting a large 2015 harvest and sluggish export demand.

For soybeans, the average estimate of 2.720 billion bu. would also be the most on record for Dec. 1.

For wheat, the average estimate of 1.698 billion bu. would be the highest since 2010.

USDA will also release its first estimate of winter wheat acreage. The average of the estimates is 39.32 million acres, down 0.4 percent.

India has imported huge amounts of Canadian pulses this year, helping push prices up to the top of historical ranges.

The weak monsoon limited India’s summer crop and now a drier than normal dry season and warm weather in December threaten to limit the winter crop. The next few weeks will be critical to the health of the winter crop and that will have implications on whether India continues to import large volumes of Canadian pulses.

A storm is forecast to bring 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) of snow to the U.S. Midwest this weekend, helping to insulate the region’s soft red winter wheat crop from a cold spell early next week, a Commodity Weather Group forecaster told Reuters.

Moisture levels in the southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is growing are better than they have been for years.

Some of the driest areas of Brazil’s soy growing regions got rain this week. Unlike Western Canada with its short growing season, Brazil has a very long season.

A few early seeded soybean fields are already being harvested but with the recent rain some farmers in northern growing areas might still opt to reseed soybean fields that are doing poorly.

Harvest of the main crop will likely begin in earnest late this month and early in February.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 11 cents to US$33.16 per barrel. Oil fell 10 percent on the week.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US70.67 cents, down from 71.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.4151.

Canada added 22,800 jobs in December, more than expected, partly making up for heavy losses the previous month. The unemployment rate held at 7.1 percent. The gains were mostly in part time and self-employed sectors.

Worries about China’s plunging stocks lessened a little at the end of the week as Beijing took several actions to calm its turmoil-wracked market.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed 2.76 points lower, down 0.02 percent, at 12,445.45.

For the week it was down 4.3 percent.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 167.65 points, or 1.02 percent, to 16,346.45, the S&P 500 lost 21.06 points, or 1.08 percent, to 1,922.03 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 45.80 points, or 0.98 percent, to 4,643.63.

For the week the S&P fell six percent and the Dow fell 6.2 percent, the largest for any week going back to September 2011.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jan 2016 473.20 +3.30 +0.70%

Canola Mar 2016 481.30 +3.30 +0.69%

Canola May 2016 488.60 +3.50 +0.72%

Canola Jul 2016 493.20 +4.40 +0.90%

Canola Nov 2016 490.20 +5.20 +1.07%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 239.00 +2.00 +0.84%

Milling Wheat May 2016 242.00 +2.00 +0.83%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 246.00 +2.00 +0.82%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 322.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 330.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2016 182.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 188.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2016 879.5 +2.5 +0.29%

Soybeans Mar 2016 865.25 +0.75 +0.09%

Soybeans May 2016 868 +0.75 +0.09%

Soybeans Jul 2016 874.75 +1 +0.11%

Soybeans Aug 2016 877 +1 +0.11%

Soybeans Sep 2016 876.25 +1 +0.11%

Soybean Meal Jan 2016 267.9 +1.7 +0.64%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016 268.7 +1.3 +0.49%

Soybean Meal May 2016 271.2 +1.2 +0.44%

Soybean Oil Jan 2016 29.45 +0.01 +0.03%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016 29.64 +0.02 +0.07%

Soybean Oil May 2016 29.88 +0.03 +0.10%

Corn Mar 2016 357 +4 +1.13%

Corn May 2016 362.75 +4.25 +1.19%

Corn Jul 2016 369 +4.5 +1.23%

Corn Sep 2016 374.75 +4.5 +1.22%

Corn Dec 2016 383 +4.25 +1.12%

Oats Mar 2016 210.75 +2 +0.96%

Oats May 2016 211.75 +4 +1.93%

Oats Jul 2016 216.25 +3.5 +1.65%

Oats Sep 2016 221.75 +3.5 +1.60%

Oats Dec 2016 221 +3.25 +1.49%

Wheat Mar 2016 478.5 +10 +2.13%

Wheat May 2016 483.75 +10.5 +2.22%

Wheat Jul 2016 490.25 +9.75 +2.03%

Wheat Sep 2016 499.75 +9.75 +1.99%

Wheat Dec 2016 513.5 +9 +1.78%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 501 +6.25 +1.26%

Spring Wheat May 2016 508 +6.5 +1.30%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 516.75 +6.25 +1.22%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 527.75 +5.75 +1.10%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 543.25 +5.25 +0.98%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 472.75 +10 +2.16%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 482.5 +10 +2.12%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 492.25 +10 +2.07%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 505.75 +9.75 +1.97%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 525.5 +9.75 +1.89%

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