Crop futures give back Thursday gains, but canola up on week

The geopolitical concerns that supported grain prices Thursday could not lift markets on Friday.

Crop prices, including canola, fell Friday, mostly on the outlook for good growing weather in the U.S. Midwest, but also on the rain that fell last night in parts of the Prairies.

Thunderstorms that crossed Alberta and Saskatchewan benefited many who were looking for rain, but also hail fell in some places. And the rain added to the woes of those who already had too much moisture.

The rain was mainly in the northern and central grain belt.

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November canola fell $7.30 to $443.30 on the day.

However, on the week the contract gained $3.40 or 0.8 percent as the trade adjusted the price to reflect worries about the condition of the canola crop.

Still, funds are in a net short position in the November canola contract, now seen at around 22,000 contracts, Reuters reported.

Canola gained some support from the current strong pace of canola crush.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 158,000 tonnes of canola in the week ending July 16, up 1.8 percent over the week before.

That represented an 88.6 percent capacity use, one of the best this crop year.

So far this year, COPA members have crushed 6.636 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent over last year.

Nearly ideal weather conditions are forecast for the U.S. Midwest with moderate temperatures and frequent rain.

That knocked December corn down 2.53 percent today. Over the week, December corn fell 6.25 cents or 1.6 percent. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline and put the price down to a level not seen since mid 2010.

The good weather also weighed on new crop soybeans today, but over the week November rose about one percent. Rising export demand for new crop soybeans, as the price fell to attractive levels, kept a floor under November.

The nearby contract fell about nine percent on the week as concerns fade about running out of supply before the new crop is harvested.

August soy oil fell about one percent this week.

Wheat lost the gains posted on Thursday. The downing of the Malaysian airliner in Ukraine initially caused a spike in wheat futures but that eroded away as trade returned to the fact that the four month conflict in Ukraine has not yet restricted wheat exports from the Black Sea region.

Winter wheat harvest in the U.S. and Europe kept pressure on wheat futures.

When all was said and done, the Minneapolis December spring wheat contract was flat on the week, closing at $6.40 per bushel, exactly the same as the previous Friday.

There is some talk in the grain market that prices are falling so low that they don’t account for any weather risk. Although U.S. conditions look excellent now, it is not impossible that a sudden turn to dry weather or a heat wave could stress the crop and downgrade its condition.

But forecasts for record yields still seem to have the upper hand over those urging caution.

The monsoon in India finally covered the whole country and rain during the week was heavy in some places.

The monsoon rains were only 15 percent below average in the past week, against 41 percent below average in the previous week, the weather office data showed.

Rain is expected to be good for the rest of July.

The slow development of the monsoon has delayed crop seeding. Pulse seeding totals of 2.16 million hectares are only half of the normal pace but activity should increase now that the rain has arrived.

In livestock markets, live and feeder cattle futures rose while nearby hog futures fell over the week.

The cool summer has stalled the usual hot weather switch to lighter meals. Consumer demand is still good for barbecue meats.

That kept U.S. Choice and Select wholesale prices strong.

Reuters reported cash cattle in Texas and Kansas fetched mostly $155 per cwt, down $1 from last week, Reuters reported. Cash cattle in Nebraska moved at $156 to $157, steady to $1 higher than a week ago.

Packers had been waiting for the usual summer pick up in market ready supplies, but numbers are not increasing as much as expected.

August lean hog futures dipped 1.1 percent, but the cash market was mostly steady at about $97-$98 per hundredweight at plant in the key Iowa-southern Minnesota market. Packer processing margins fell into the red and traders expect they will trim the slaughter pace next week to try to drive pork prices higher and hog prices lower.

February lean hogs gained a little on the week.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 443.30 -7.30 -1.62%

Canola Jan 2015 446.80 -6.60 -1.46%

Canola Mar 2015 446.40 -7.40 -1.63%

Canola May 2015 442.40 -7.80 -1.73%

Canola Jul 2015 439.10 -8.10 -1.81%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 188.00 -3.00 -1.57%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 193.00 -3.00 -1.53%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 204.00 -3.00 -1.45%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 137.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 139.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 140.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2014 1176.75 +2 +0.17%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1104.25 -6.25 -0.56%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1085.25 -8.75 -0.80%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1093.5 -8.25 -0.75%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1101.5 -8 -0.72%

Soybeans May 2015 1109.25 -7.75 -0.69%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 380.3 -0.2 -0.05%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 363.2 -2 -0.55%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 354.3 -4.6 -1.28%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 36.57 +0.2 +0.55%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 36.66 +0.2 +0.55%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 36.63 +0.24 +0.66%

Corn Sep 2014 371.25 -8.25 -2.17%

Corn Dec 2014 378.5 -8.75 -2.26%

Corn Mar 2015 390.5 -8.5 -2.13%

Corn May 2015 399 -8.5 -2.09%

Corn Jul 2015 406.5 -8.75 -2.11%

Oats Sep 2014 331.5 -5.75 -1.70%

Oats Dec 2014 325.25 -7 -2.11%

Oats Mar 2015 319 -5.75 -1.77%

Oats May 2015 311.25 -5.75 -1.81%

Oats Jul 2015 314.5 -5.75 -1.80%

Wheat Sep 2014 532.25 -18.5 -3.36%

Wheat Dec 2014 556.25 -17.25 -3.01%

Wheat Mar 2015 577.75 -17 -2.86%

Wheat May 2015 592.75 -16.25 -2.67%

Wheat Jul 2015 605 -15.25 -2.46%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 630.25 -6.75 -1.06%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 640 -8 -1.23%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 652.75 -8.25 -1.25%

Spring Wheat May 2015 661 -9 -1.34%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 669.25 -9 -1.33%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 633.75 -15.25 -2.35%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 645.75 -14.25 -2.16%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 652.5 -14.75 -2.21%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 657.5 -14.25 -2.12%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2015 643.75 -15.25 -2.31%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 6 cents at $103.13 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.14 cents US, up from 93 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0737 Cdn.

Wall street bounced back after Thursday’s declines sparked by the crisis in Ukraine. Companies are reporting their quarterly earnings and many of them are posting healthy revenue and profits. Google’s shares were up more than four percent after posting revenue of 12.7 billion, topping expectations for $12.3 billion.

Inflation in Canada rose to 2.4 percent on an annual basis, surpassing the forecast for 2.3 percent.

It was the highest rate in 28 months.

Canadian wholesale sales in May were also surprisingly strong, helping to push up the Canadian dollar

In unofficial tallies —

The TSX composite rose 62.09 points, or 0.49 percent to 15,266.57

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 123.37 points or 0.73 percent, to end at 17,100.18.

The S&P 500 gained 20.10 points or 1.03 percent, to finish at 1,978.22.

The Nasdaq Composite added 68.70 points or 1.57 percent, to close at 4,432.15.

For the week, the TSX composite was up 0.9 percent, the Dow climbed 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.4 percent.