Tighter U.S. soybean stocks trumped larger than expected canola acreage in Tuesday’s markets, sending November canola futures almost three percent higher.
November soybeans jumped 5.8 percent and new crop December corn soared 7.3 percent on bullish USDA acreage and stocks report this morning.
The report was not bullish for wheat, but still Minneapolis hard red spring contract was up more than three percent, supported by rising corn and worries about excess rain in the U.S. Midwest and dry weather in Canada and Europe.
Statistics Canada said farmers planted 19.8 million acres to canola, up two percent from its April forecast and topping the average of trade estimates of 19.5 million acres. That was, however, down from last year’s 20.3 million acres.
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The extremely dry weather in much of Alberta, Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba took precedence over the acreage number.
Extreme southeastern Saskatchewan is getting rain today.
In June the old crop July canola contract gained 14.8 percent, the biggest monthly advance in seven years.
As stated, the USDA released seeded acreage and stocks reports.
June 1 soybean stocks came in at 625 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 670 million. Analysts said the figure means that USDA forecasts for U.S. 2014-15 and 2015-16 soybean ending stocks will likely be revised down.
USDA estimated U.S. soybean plantings for 2015 at a record-high 85.1 million acres, in line with trade expectations. USDA said it would resurvey growers in Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas about soybean plantings and publish any necessary changes in its Aug. 12 crop production report.
July soybean futures surged five percent, the biggest single-day move since October 2010.
Soymeal futures rose with soybeans while soyoil futures trailed the gains in the other markets.
Soybeans, corn and soft wheat were also supported by wet conditions in the eastern Midwest that threaten U.S. yield prospects.
USDA on Monday rated 63 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as good to excellent, down from 65 percent the previous week.
Corn futures today surged nearly eight percent for their largest daily gain in five years.
Corn plantings were 88.897 million acres, down from 90.597 million acres last year and below the March forecast of 89.199 million. Corn acreage was the lowest since 2010.
USDA said that domestic corn stocks as of June 1 stood at 4.447 billion bu., the highest for that time of year since 1988 and the fifth highest on record. However, that was shy of expectations for 4.555 billion bu. The figure indicates that corn use in feed and ethanol was more than expected.
On Monday USDA rated 68 percent of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent, down from 71 percent the previous week. Excess rain in the Midwest is a problem.
USDA on Monday said the U.S. winter wheat harvest was 38 per percent complete, behind the five-year average of 46 percent.
Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 41 percent good to excellent. But Ohio soft red wheat suffered an 18-point decline at 46 percent rated good to excellent. Spring wheat was 72 percent good to excellent, up 1 point from last week.
Statistics Canada said Canadian farmers planted 24.142 million acres of wheat for 2015 harvest, down from its March forecast of 24.765 million but up from 23.835 million a year ago.
The European Union’s executive lowered its forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the bloc to 140.0 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from its previous outlook a month ago.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.14 to US$59.47 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.17 cents, down from 80.76 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2474.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 542.60 +19.60 +3.75%
Canola Nov 2015 536.10 +15.50 +2.98%
Canola Jan 2016 533.90 +15.40 +2.97%
Canola Mar 2016 530.70 +14.70 +2.85%
Canola May 2016 526.80 +14.30 +2.79%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 243.00 +7.00 +2.97%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 245.00 +7.00 +2.94%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 245.00 +7.00 +2.94%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 208.40 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 203.40 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 208.40 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 1056.25 +53.75 +5.36%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1049.5 +55 +5.53%
Soybeans Sep 2015 1041.5 +57 +5.79%
Soybeans Nov 2015 1037.25 +57.25 +5.84%
Soybeans Jan 2016 1042.25 +57.25 +5.81%
Soybeans Mar 2016 1033 +49.75 +5.06%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 359.5 +17.6 +5.15%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 351.9 +17.9 +5.36%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 348.3 +19.3 +5.87%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 33.56 +0.51 +1.54%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 33.65 +0.54 +1.63%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 33.74 +0.57 +1.72%
Corn Jul 2015 414 +30.75 +8.02%
Corn Sep 2015 422 +30 +7.65%
Corn Dec 2015 431.5 +29.25 +7.27%
Corn Mar 2016 440.75 +28.25 +6.85%
Corn May 2016 446.25 +27.75 +6.63%
Oats Jul 2015 253.25 +7.25 +2.95%
Oats Sep 2015 264 +7.25 +2.82%
Oats Dec 2015 277.75 +10.75 +4.03%
Oats Mar 2016 285.25 +13.5 +4.97%
Oats May 2016 289.5 +13.5 +4.89%
Wheat Jul 2015 614.75 +34.25 +5.90%
Wheat Sep 2015 615.75 +32.25 +5.53%
Wheat Dec 2015 622 +31.25 +5.29%
Wheat Mar 2016 628 +32.75 +5.50%
Wheat May 2016 631.25 +32.5 +5.43%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 622.25 +18.25 +3.02%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 637.25 +18.5 +2.99%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 651.5 +19.75 +3.13%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 662.25 +20.5 +3.19%
Spring Wheat May 2016 669 +20.5 +3.16%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 593.25 +21.75 +3.81%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 610.25 +28.75 +4.94%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 628 +27.75 +4.62%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 639.5 +27 +4.41%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 647.5 +27 +4.35%
