Corn rose the 40-cent limit in Chicago on Friday after the USDA reported that Sept. 1 stocks are only 988 million bushels, down 12 percent from 1.128 billion a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Reuters had, on average, expected stocks of 1.113 billion bu.
It appears feed use in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, leading to more corn around than expected.
Wheat futures also rose strongly after inventories in the report fell to 2.1 billion bu., seven percent smaller than traders expected and a four-year low.
While corn futures rose more than 5.5 percent and wheat was up more than four percent, oilseeds trailed behind with soybeans up about two percent and canola up about one percent.
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Chicago Board of Trade corn futures extended slight gains on Tuesday as short covering and bargain buying continued to support a rebound from contract lows reached during the previous session.
November canola closed at $597.70, up $5.80.
Compared to the previous Friday, November canola was down $14.30. However, several buyers have narrowed their basis and so the cash price did not fall as much.
The canola harvest in many areas is done or entering its final few days.
FarmLink Marketing Solutions released its updated forecast of Canadian crop production today.
It pegs the canola crop at 14.714 million tonnes, down from the August Statistics Canada estimate of 15.41 million.
FarmLink’s other forecasts are close to the StatsCan August numbers, except for durum, which it pegs at 4.665 million tonnes, up from StatsCan’s 4.273 million.
StatsCan releases its next production estimate on Oct. 4.
• The Canadian Oilseed Processor’s Association said members crushed 147,244 tonnes of canola in the week ending Sept. 26, down about two percent from the week before.
That represents a crush capacity of 88.5 percent.
So far this crop year, COPA crush is about 100,000 tonnes ahead of last year at the same time.
• Today’s USDA report was actually negative for soybean prices, however the momentum from the grains side flowed through to the beans. Soybean stocks were pegged at 169 million bu., up from the pre-report average estimate of 131 million.
• The big moves in corn today are the exact opposite of what happened last year at this time when USDA surprised the market with a corn stocks number that was well above analysts’ expectations.
• Corn was also supported by a report from the International Grains Council that cut its forecast for global corn and wheat production.
The monthly report cut the corn forecast by 5.1 million tonnes to 833 million tonnes, largely reflecting a 4.9 million cut to the EU-27 crop to 55 million.
Global wheat crop fell 4.5 million tonnes to 657 million.
It cut the EU-27 crop by 1.7 million tonnes to 131.4 million. And Russia’s wheat crop was pegged at 39 million tonnes, down two million from last month’s report.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 12 $597.70, up $5.80 +0.98%
Canola Jan 13 $601.80, up $6.20 +1.04%
Canola Mar 13 $601.40, up $5.80 +0.97%
Canola May 13 $593.00, up $5.70 +0.97%
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $300.50, up $9.80 +3.37%
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $305.70, up $9.80 +3.31%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $315.20, up $9.80 +3.21%
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $311.90, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $316.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $323.00, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $250.30, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $255.30, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $258.30, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $16.01, up 30.25 cents +1.93%
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $16.0275, up 31.5 +2.00%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $15.6425, up 40.25 +2.64%
Soybeans (P) May 13 $15.215, up 42.5 +2.87%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $7.5625, up 40.0 +5.58%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $7.59-4, up 40.0 +5.56%
Corn (P) May 13 $7.57-0, up 40.0 +5.58%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.72-0, up 3.75 +1.02%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.70, up 1.75 (not official)
Oats (P) May 13 $3.77, up 3.25 (not official)
Minneapolis (per tonne)
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.58-4, up 44.25 +4.84%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.66-6, up 44.75 +4.85%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.72-2, up 44.25 +4.77%
Spring Wheat Jul 13 $9.68-2, up 41.5 +4.48%
Nearby crude oil in New York rose 34 cents to close at $92.19 per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0166 US, down from $1.0190 the day before.
The U.S. buck was 98.37 cents Cdn.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index fell 21.39 points, or 0.17 percent, at 12,317.46.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 48.84 points, or 0.36 percent, to end at 13,437.13.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 6.48 points, or 0.45 percent, to finish at 1,440.67.
The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 20.37 points, or 0.65 percent, to close at 3,116.23.
For the third quarter, TSX rained more than six percent, the S&P 500 gained 5.8 percent, while the Dow rose 4.3 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 6.2 percent.
For the week the Dow fell 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq fell two percent.
