Commodity rally lifts canola, wheat on Tuesday

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Published: February 3, 2015

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Canola rose Tuesday supported by a general commodity rise, sparked by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger oil prices.

The Canadian dollar rose, limiting canola’s gain.

The trade awaited Wednesday’s Statistics Canada report. Canola stocks on Dec. 31 were an estimated 10.7 million tonnes, down 14 percent from last year, and the second-most ample on record, according to a Reuters trade survey.

West Texas crude oil has rallied more than $8 a barrel or about 19 percent in the last four days to close today at $53.05. There is a large strike in the U.S. oil refining industry affecting 10 percent of refinery capacity and that supported oil. Also, oil and other commodities were due for a correction after a long period of decline.

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Oil’s rise weakened the U.S. dollar and lifted the loonie.

Soybeans rallied 2.9 percent on the commodity rally but it did not break though to the psychological resistance at $10 a bushel.

Brazilian analysts have been trimming their soybean production estimates by about a million tonnes, but today Informa Economics raised its forecast of Argentina’s crop by 1.5 million to 57 million. It also increased its outlook for the corn crop.

The commodity rally helped corn and wheat more than the oilseeds.

Kansas and Chicago wheat rallies more than four percent while Minneapolis spring wheat was up almost four percent.

Several new global tenders for wheat supply from Egypt, Iraq and Turkey also supported wheat. The recent drop in wheat prices has caused importers to issue the tenders.

The monthly review of the condition of the winter wheat crop also lent support.

Kansas showed a slight deterioration at three percent very poor (two percent last month), 10 poor (seven percent), 41 fair (42 percent), 42 good (45 percent), and 4 excellent (four percent).

Oklahoma was two percent very poor (two percent lasts month), 11 percent poor (10 percent), 46 fair (34 percent), 39 good (48 percent) and two percent excellent (six percent)

However, a large part of the Plains and Midwest got snow and rain over the weekend and that should help to improve crop conditions.

India looks likely to harvest a bumper wheat crop this year, its eighth in a row to exceed demand, possibly encouraging the government to allow exports from overflowing grain bins, Reuters reported.

Corn also rallied more than four percent, supported by the commodity rally. But higher corn weighed on the Chicago feeder futures price.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $3.48 to US$53.05 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.28 cents, up from US79.50 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2456.

The rise in oil lifted energy company shares. Also automakers were buoyed by stronger than expected vehicle sales in January.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 162.41 points or 1.09 percent to 15,062.88.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 304.98 points, or 1.76 percent, to 17,666.02, the S&P 500 gained 29.09 points, or 1.44 percent, to 2,049.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 51.05 points, or 1.09 percent, to 4,727.74.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015       457.30       +5.90       +1.31%

Canola May 2015       453.30       +6.00       +1.34%

Canola Jul 2015       450.50       +5.70       +1.28%

Canola Nov 2015       438.70       +5.60       +1.29%

Canola Jan 2016       440.30       +5.60       +1.29%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       226.00       +7.00       +3.20%

Milling Wheat May 2015       237.00       +7.00       +3.04%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       240.00       +7.00       +3.00%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       349.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       339.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       329.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2015       195.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2015       197.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       199.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015       987       +27.5       +2.87%

Soybeans May 2015       993       +26.75       +2.77%

Soybeans Jul 2015       998       +26.25       +2.70%

Soybeans Aug 2015       996.75       +25.5       +2.63%

Soybeans Sep 2015       979       +22.75       +2.38%

Soybeans Nov 2015       966.25       +21       +2.22%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       340.6       +12.7       +3.87%

Soybean Meal May 2015       332.3       +10.7       +3.33%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       329.4       +10.2       +3.20%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       30.8       +0.39       +1.28%

Soybean Oil May 2015       31.03       +0.38       +1.24%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       31.25       +0.38       +1.23%

 

Corn Mar 2015       385.75       +16       +4.33%

Corn May 2015       393.75       +16       +4.24%

Corn Jul 2015       401       +15.5       +4.02%

Corn Sep 2015       407.75       +15.25       +3.89%

Corn Dec 2015       416.25       +15.25       +3.80%

 

Oats Mar 2015       280       +10.75       +3.99%

Oats May 2015       280.5       +6.5       +2.37%

Oats Jul 2015       281.25       +4.25       +1.53%

Oats Sep 2015       287       +4       +1.41%

Oats Dec 2015       286.25       +2.25       +0.79%

 

Wheat Mar 2015       513.75       +21       +4.26%

Wheat May 2015       517.75       +20.5       +4.12%

Wheat Jul 2015       522.25       +20.5       +4.09%

Wheat Sep 2015       531       +20.5       +4.02%

Wheat Dec 2015       543.75       +20.5       +3.92%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       576       +22       +3.97%

Spring Wheat May 2015       579.5       +21.25       +3.81%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       586.5       +20.5       +3.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       594.25       +19.75       +3.44%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       605       +20       +3.42%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       559       +24.5       +4.58%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       561.5       +25.25       +4.71%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       563.75       +23.75       +4.40%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       575.75       +23.5       +4.26%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       590.25       +22.75       +4.01%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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