BEIJING, Nov 13 (Reuters) – China, the world’s top producer of wheat, is likely to import 8 million tonnes of the grain in 2013/14, the highest in nearly two decades, after the domestic harvest was damaged by bad weather, said an official think-tank.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) has revised up its forecast for the year ending May 2014 from a previous estimate of 7.5 million tonnes.. It would be biggest import quantity since 12.5 million tonnes in 1995.
U.S. wheat futures climbed to their highest in nearly five months in October, largely driven by lower production in key grain consumers China and Brazil.
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China’s wheat crop suffered severely from bad weather in major growing areas, which left as much as 20 million tonnes of the wheat crop, or 16 percent, unfit for human consumption.
Wheat imports from the United States, China’s biggest supplier, were seen at 4.3 million tonnes in the current 2013/14 marketing year thanks to favourable prices of U.S. soft red winter wheat, it said.
Imports from Australia are expected to exceed 2 million tonnes, while any rise in imports from Canada will be limited due to higher prices, it said.
“Imports of high-quality wheat will expand this year after a lower harvest of domestic high-quality wheat,” it said.
China has already purchased a combined 4.5 million tonnes of wheat from the United States and Australia, it said.
RECORD RICE IMPORTS
The center also revised up its forecast for the country’s rice imports by 1 million tonnes to a record 5 million tonnes in the year to September 2014.
“Drought has hurt domestic middle and late-season rice. But the imports are largely driven by cheap global prices rather than lower production,” said one analyst with the center.
China has also signed deals with Thailand, promising to buy 1 million tonnes of Thai rice a year for the coming five years.
Beijing’s stockpiling programme, aiming to help rice farmers, has lifted domestic rice prices higher than in Southeast Asian countries, triggering cheap imports from Vietnam and Pakistan.
“China has problems with domestic supplies of rice. Just as in the case of wheat and corn, they have suffered a production setback in the rice crop,” said one trader based in Singapore.
“Chinese importers are also taking large volumes of rice from Myanmar in trucks. The border trade is very active these days.”
Rice output in China, the world’s top consumer and producer, was forecast to fall for the first time in a decade this year due to drought in major growing areas, according to the center.
China’s urbanization drive has led many farmers to abandon plantings because of lower returns from growing grains.
China’s rice output this year was estimated to fall 0.7 percent on year to 202.75 million tonnes, said the center.
