New soy export demand and worry Midwest rain won’t help stressed crops lifted soybeans a little, but canola edged lower on farmer selling, profit taking and early harvest work in canola fields.
The Canadian dollar is creeping higher after recent lows.
Recent warm weather is helping to increase the amount of canola swathing. Long-term weather forecasts indicate lower temperatures around Sept. 10-11, however, the Weather Network does not forecast frost for the Prairies in its long-range outlook on those dates.
Basis levels on canola have widened this week in response to the higher futures price.
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Prairie wheat bids fall with U.S. futures
Hard red spring wheat bids in Western Canada dropped with the U.S. futures during the week ended July 17, as the advancing U.S. winter wheat harvest and a lack of major concerns for North American spring wheat weighed on values.
Soybeans got support from a reported sale to China. Also, there were worries that light rains next week will not be enough to help stressed crops.
Old crop corn edged higher on tight stocks, but new crop dipped as the price dropped through a technical support point. Most corn has matured to the point where the dry heat in the Midwest will do less damage than it will to the soybean crop, which is setting pods.
Chicago soft wheat was lower but Minneapolis edged higher on expectation that high protein wheat will see good export demand.
Crop forecaster Lanworth cut its estimate of U.S. corn and soybean crops because of dry weather, Reuters reported.
Lanworth said the midpoint of the range of its soybean production forecast was 3.140 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 40.8 bu. per acre, down two percent from its previous outlook.
That is below the current U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 3.255 billion bu., and a yield of 42.6 bu. per ac.
Lanworth lowered its U.S. corn harvest forecast by four percent to 13.406 billion bu., with average yields pegged at 152.4 bu. per acre, Reuters reported.
USDA’s forecast is 13.763 billion bu. and 154.4 bu. per acre.
“Field observations are indicating rapidly declining yield potential in major production states,” Lanworth said in a report.
A Chinese crop forecaster said corn production there might be less than expected because rain and flooding in the northeast damaged crops.
Production may fall about 2.7 percent from an Aug. 14 estimate to 179 million tonnes, said Dalian-based grain advisory company Yigu Information Consulting, Bloomberg reported.
The company also said last year’s harvest was only 181 million tonnes, lower than China’s official figure of 205.6 million, Bloomberg reported.
China has been increasing its corn imports in recent years and has been working with Argentina and Ukraine to develop an import relationship so that it does not totally rely on U.S. supplies.
Frost in Brazil in July hurt its wheat crop. Brazil is a major importer of wheat and the frost has already caused it to increase imports. Usually most of its imports come from Argentina, but restrictions on Argentina shipment caused Brazil to turn to Canadian and American wheat.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 527.40 -2.30 -0.43%
Canola Jan 2014 533.60 -2.30 -0.43%
Canola Mar 2014 539.10 -2.60 -0.48%
Canola May 2014 543.40 -1.60 -0.29%
Canola Jul 2014 546.40 -0.10 -0.02%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 258.00 +1.00 +0.39%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 263.00 +1.00 +0.38%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 268.00 +1.00 +0.37%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 284.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 286.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 293.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2013 1433 +19 +1.34%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1372.75 +2.25 +0.16%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1368.5 +3 +0.22%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1346 +10.25 +0.77%
Soybeans May 2014 1319.5 +11.75 +0.90%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1310.25 +7.5 +0.58%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 463.3 +7.4 +1.62%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 432.2 -0.6 -0.14%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 429.3 -1.1 -0.26%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 44.31 +0.25 +0.57%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 44.45 +0.24 +0.54%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 44.78 +0.26 +0.58%
Corn Sep 2013 504.25 +4.5 +0.90%
Corn Dec 2013 480.75 -5.5 -1.13%
Corn Mar 2014 493.5 -5.25 -1.05%
Corn May 2014 501 -5.25 -1.04%
Corn Jul 2014 506.75 -4.75 -0.93%
Oats Sep 2013 375.75 +12 +3.30%
Oats Dec 2013 348.5 -1.25 -0.36%
Oats Mar 2014 353 -1 -0.28%
Oats May 2014 355.75 -1.5 -0.42%
Oats Jul 2014 346.75 -2 -0.57%
Wheat Sep 2013 646.5 -4.25 -0.65%
Wheat Dec 2013 659.5 -4.25 -0.64%
Wheat Mar 2014 671.5 -4 -0.59%
Wheat May 2014 678.75 -4 -0.59%
Wheat Jul 2014 672.5 -4.5 -0.66%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 734.25 +4.75 +0.65%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 740.5 +3.5 +0.47%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 751.25 +2.5 +0.33%
Spring Wheat May 2014 757.5 +0.75 +0.10%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 764.5 +3.5 +0.46%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 706.25 -1 -0.14%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 710.25 -0.75 -0.11%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 717.75 -0.75 -0.10%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 722.5 -0.75 -0.10%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 713.25 unch 0.00%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.09 at $110.10 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.33 cents US, up from 95.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0490 Cdn.
International tension continued over the crisis in Syria with the United States and allies weighing the options of missile strikes in response to the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons in the civil war there.
Crude oil rose on the tension in the Middle East as did gold ad stock markets were generally higher after falling sharply on Tuesday.
The stronger oil and gold prices helped lift the TSX composite as did strong bank quarterly profit reports.
In unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 16.01 points, or 0.13 percent, at 12,607.22.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 60.79 points, or 0.41 percent, at 14,836.92.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 5.93 points, or 0.36 percent, at 1,636.41.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 16.82 points, or 0.47 percent, at 3,595.35.
