The devastating typhoon in the Philippines has added support to vegetable oil prices.
The storm killed thousands and left tens of thousands homeless.
It also destroyed many coconut trees and the Philippines is a major coconut oil producer.
The expectation is that coconut oil users will have turn to other vegetable oils and that helped lift palm oil, soybeans and canola today.
January canola topped the psychologically important $500 per tonne level, but failed to stay there.
The contract closed at $498.40, up $2.70. March closed at $506.00, up $1.90.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures jump on hopes for US export demand
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures jumped on hopes for U.S. export demand on Wednesday, while corn futures rose for a third day to extend a recovery from contract lows, analysts said.
News that China was buying more U.S. soybeans also supported oilseeds.
U.S. soybean export sale commitments stand at 33.25 million tonnes or 84 percent of what the U.S. Department of Agriculture thinks will be sold in the whole year.
Offsetting the gains in oilseeds was news of more rain in dry areas of Argentina, lessening the worry that drought would limit soybean production there.
Seeding conditions there are now nearly perfect, Reuters reported.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs today forecast 2014 U.S. soybean area would rise 8.5 percent or 6.5 million acres to a record 83 million.
It sees next year’s corn area at 92.5 million acres, down from 95.3 million in 2013.
The bank said new-crop corn and soybean prices could fall another 10 to 15 percent by spring given the size of expected stocks and the large decline in input costs, especially fertilizers.
Canola exports and crush are running behind the pace set last year. Not much moved early in the crop year because stocks were exceptionally tight and harvest started late.
However, the pace of domestic and export use will have to pick up to avoid an even larger carry over than is projected now.
The Canadian Grain Commission has re-established its weekly grain export data.
In the 13 weeks of the crop year to Nov. 3, farmers had delivered 3.078 million tonnes of canola and exports totaled 1.711 million tonnes.
At the same point last year farmers had delivered 4.1145 million tonnes and exports stood at 2.064 million tonnes.
The 13th week marks the first quarter of the crop year. Agriculture Canada last month forecast Canadian canola exports at eight million tonnes. One quarter of that is two million, so exports to date are not keeping up with the pace needed to match Agriculture Canada’s forecast.
The canola crush is also running behind last year’s pace.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members had crushed 1.677 million tonnes as of Nov. 6, down from 1.921 million at the same time last year.
Corn settled lower, pressured by U.S. farmer deliveries. Dry weather this week is expected to allow farmers to finish off the last of the record large U.S. harvest. The weakness in corn spilled over into wheat.
An Associated Press story today is highly critical of U.S. ethanol policy, saying it pressed millions of acres of environmentally sensitive land into crop production. Also, runoff of fertilizer used to produce corn for ethanol polluted water.
The U.S. National Corn Growers Association responded with a news release saying the story showed a misunderstanding of modern farming and the Conservation Reserved Program.
It is a critical time for ethanol policy in the U.S. The requirement for next year is 14.4 billion gallons of ethanol mixed into fuel. But gasoline use has fallen in the U.S. and at the approved 10 percent blend ethanol use won’t be high enough to meet the requirement. The Environmental Protection Agency is considering reducing the ethanol mandate. The ethanol industry has been lobbying to increase the blend rate to allow 15 percent blends.
The EPA’s deadline to finalize the 2014 mandate is Nov. 30.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 490.80 +2.70 +0.55%
Canola Jan 2014 498.40 +2.70 +0.54%
Canola Mar 2014 506.00 +1.90 +0.38%
Canola May 2014 512.90 +2.00 +0.39%
Canola Jul 2014 518.20 +1.70 +0.33%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 218.00 -1.00 -0.46%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 229.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2014 237.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1319.25 +11.25 +0.86%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1314.5 +13.5 +1.04%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1296.5 +14.75 +1.15%
Soybeans May 2014 1277 +14.5 +1.15%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1271.5 +13.75 +1.09%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1251.75 +13.75 +1.11%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 427.7 +5.6 +1.33%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 421.4 +5.6 +1.35%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 409.6 +6 +1.49%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 40.75 +0.33 +0.82%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.05 +0.3 +0.74%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 41.45 +0.29 +0.70%
Corn Dec 2013 432.25 -2.5 -0.58%
Corn Mar 2014 444 -2.5 -0.56%
Corn May 2014 453 -2.5 -0.55%
Corn Jul 2014 459.75 -2 -0.43%
Corn Sep 2014 465.25 -2 -0.43%
Oats Dec 2013 336.5 -3.75 -1.10%
Oats Mar 2014 319.25 -0.75 -0.23%
Oats May 2014 311.75 -1 -0.32%
Oats Jul 2014 310.75 -0.75 -0.24%
Oats Sep 2014 310.75 -0.75 -0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013 645.25 -1 -0.15%
Wheat Mar 2014 655.75 -1.5 -0.23%
Wheat May 2014 661 -1.75 -0.26%
Wheat Jul 2014 661.5 -3.25 -0.49%
Wheat Sep 2014 670.75 -3.5 -0.52%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 701.25 -3.25 -0.46%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 712.5 -2.75 -0.38%
Spring Wheat May 2014 719.5 -3.5 -0.48%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 726.5 -3 -0.41%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 730.25 -1.75 -0.24%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 703.25 -3 -0.42%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 704 -3.75 -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 703.25 -4.5 -0.64%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 698 -5 -0.71%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 707 -5.5 -0.77%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $2.10 at $93.04 US per barrel. Good job creation last month has market watchers guessing that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease up on its stimulus and that weighed on oil and other commodities.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.22 cents US, down from 95.36 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0502 Cdn.
In late trade the TSX composite was down about 0.17 percent. U.S. stock markets were also slightly lower.
