Canola rises as temps drop

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Friday, boosted by Prairie weather concerns and speculative buying.

Lingering winter conditions across much of Western Canada have some analysts reconsidering acreage projections for the spring, with a later seeding start possibly shifting some intended canola acres into other crops, according to participants.

Bullish technical signals contributed to the gains in canola, as the canola remains in a well-established uptrend.

The trade dispute between China and the United States continued to overhang the grains and oilseeds, with the latest developments including a threat from U.S. President Donald Trump of an additional US$100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. While equity markets were down hard on the day, Chicago Board of Trade soybeans managed to recover from early losses to end narrowly mixed.

About 32,210 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 19,789 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,274 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures ended mixed on Friday, as the market reacted to the ongoing back-and-forth trade dispute between China and the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest sabre-rattling weighed on soybeans in early activity, but the market moved above unchanged as the day progressed.

Declining crop estimates out of Argentina provided some support, while the U.S. is also seeing good demand for its soybeans despite the trade dispute with China.

The USDA reported a 130,000 tonne sale of soybeans to Mexico this morning and an additional 458,000 tonnes to other “unknown destinations.”

The USDA’s next monthly supply/demand report will be released April 10, and positioning ahead of the report was a feature.

CORN futures held near unchanged, although the bias was to the downside as the trade uncertainty kept some caution in the futures.

The USDA reported private export sales of 100,000 tonnes of corn to Egypt, which provided some support.

WHEAT futures were higher, with the largest gains in Minneapolis spring wheat.

Persistent cold temperatures across much of the North American wheat growing regions were especially supportive for Minneapolis spring wheat, as seeding delays are likely due to the frozen soil.

Cold weather added to the stress on the winter wheat to the south, especially as many areas are already dealing with drought stress.

Roughly a quarter of Kansas is in a state of extreme drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor report, with 81 per cent of the major wheat growing state dealing with dryness.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.48 at US$62.06 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.22 cents, down from 78.41 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2784.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola May 18 531.80s +2.80 +0.53%

Canola Jul 18 537.30s +3.10 +0.58%

Canola Nov 18 522.30s +2.80 +0.54%

Canola Jan 19 525.20s +3.10 +0.59%

Canola Mar 19 526.30s +3.10 +0.59%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 18 1033-6s +2-4 +0.24%

Soybeans Jul 18 1044-6s +2-6 +0.26%

Soybeans Aug 18 1046-0s +2-4 +0.24%

Soybeans Sep 18 1038-2s +1-2 +0.12%

Soybeans Nov 18 1033-2s -0-6 -0.07%

 

Soybean Meal May 18 386.3s +2.7 +0.70%

Soybean Meal Jul 18 390.1s +3.1 +0.80%

Soybean Meal Aug 18 386.6s +3.5 +0.91%

 

Soybean Oil May 18 31.53s -0.25 -0.79%

Soybean Oil Jul 18 31.81s -0.24 -0.75%

Soybean Oil Aug 18 31.93s -0.24 -0.75%

 

Corn May 18 388-4s -1-0 -0.26%

Corn Jul 18 397-0s -1-2 -0.31%

Corn Sep 18 404-0s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn Dec 18 412-4s -0-6 -0.18%

Corn Mar 19 420-0s -0-4 -0.12%

 

Oats May 18 233-2s +0-4 +0.21%

Oats Jul 18 241-0s +0-4 +0.21%

Oats Sep 18 244-6s +0-2 +0.10%

Oats Dec 18 253-0s -0-6 -0.30%

Oats Mar 19 259-6s -0-6 -0.29%

 

Wheat May 18 472-2s +7-4 +1.61%

Wheat Jul 18 488-4s +7-2 +1.51%

Wheat Sep 18 505-4s +7-4 +1.51%

Wheat Dec 18 528-2s +8-0 +1.54%

Wheat Mar 19 546-2s +9-0 +1.68%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 18 607-2s +17-4 +2.97%

Spring Wheat Jul 18 617-0s +15-6 +2.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 623-4s +14-0 +2.30%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 634-6s +13-0 +2.09%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 644-4s +11-6 +1.86%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 18 506-6s +8-2 +1.65%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 525-4s +9-0 +1.74%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 544-2s +9-6 +1.82%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 567-0s +10-0 +1.80%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 580-6s +10-0 +1.75%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Apr 18 112.225s -2.075 -1.82%

Live Cattle Jun 18 102.325s -2.725 -2.59%

Live Cattle Aug 18 102.775s -2.100 -2.00%

 

Feeder Cattle Apr 18 135.325s -2.150 -1.56%

Feeder Cattle May 18 135.625s -2.425 -1.76%

Feeder Cattle Aug 18 141.450s -1.225 -0.86%

 

Lean Hogs Apr 18 52.125s -0.325 -0.62%

Lean Hogs May 18 64.475s -1.375 -2.09%

Lean Hogs Jun 18 73.275s -0.550 -0.75%

 

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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