Canola futures rose along with most crops on Friday, supported by good news on the U.S. jobs front and weather problems in Europe and South America.
Also, Statistics Canada reported that canola stocks on Dec. 31 were down percent from last year at the same time, despite a larger crop.
March canola closed at $525.50 per tonne, up $2.80. Over the week the contract rose $1.10.
November closed at $512.90, up 90 cents. For the week, it rose $3.50.
Exports and domestic use are up over last crop year, providing a solid foundation for canola prices.
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Stronger soybeans also supported canola. Soy gained on an Informa forecast update that cut South American soybean production.
• Stock markets rose on news that U.S. job creation in January blasted past expectations and the unemployment rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.3 percent.
Analysts had expected about 130,000 new jobs but the Department of Labor said employers added 243,000 jobs.
U.S. unemployment rate has been falling for five consecutive months but the economy still needs to add about 5.6 million jobs to get back to the same level as 2008.
• Influential crop analysts Informa today updated its crop forecasts for South America, dropping the total for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans by 6.5 million tonnes.
It cut its Argentine soybean forecast to 46.5 million tonnes, down from last month’s 51 million. It shaved its corn outlook to 22.5 million tonnes from 24 million.
It pegged Brazilian soybean production at 70 million tonnes, down from 72 million last month. It expects Brazil will produce 61 million tonnes of corn, unchanged from last month.
• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported members crushed 129,316 tonnes of canola in the week ending Feb. 1. That was down one half a percent from the previous week. That represents a crush capacity use of about 88 percent.
So far this crop year crushers are operating on average at 88 percent capacity compared to 83 percent at the same point last year.
• A potential boost to wheat prices fizzled today when Russia announced it was raising its grain export forecast to 27 million tonnes from 24 million previously.
Deputy prime minister Viktor Zubkov said there would be no restrictions on exports in April because crop supplies are adequate.
Russia has exported close to 20 million tonnes this year and there was speculation that it might start to apply duties soon to prevent it from exceeding its export goals, but a reassessment of its grain supply has calmed the government’s fears and, at least for now, there will be no limits on exports.
• Analysts are uncertain about how much crop damage will come from the European deep freeze. It is supposed to be cold again next week. So far it appears the damage in western Europe is not severe, but reports out of Ukraine are more negative. With a good part of the crop there already in poor shape because of a dry fall, this cold could cause a further set back. A government weather spokesperson suggested the winter crop could be about half of last year’s production.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Mar 12 $525.50, up $2.80, +0.54%
Canola May 12 $529.40, up $2.00, +0.38%
Canola Jul 12 $532.80, up $1.60, +0.30%
Canola Nov 12 $512.90, up $0.90, +0.18%
The previous trading day’s best basis was $7.27 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg.
The 14-day relative strength index was 54.
Western Barley Mar 12 $212.00, unchanged
Western Barley May 12 $216.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $264.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $269.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $276.00, unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $270.00, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $274.50, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $279.50, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $180.50, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $184.00, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $185.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Mar 12 $12.325, up 15.5 cents, +1.27%
Soybeans May 12 $12.4075, up 15.25. +1.24%
Soybeans Nov 12 $12.3725, up 13.5, +1.10%
Corn Mar 12 $6.445, up 1.5, +0.23%
Corn May 12 $6.5075, up 1.25, +0.19%
Corn Dec 12 $5.815, up 2.5, +0.43%
Oats Mar 12 $3.1425, up 6.25, +2.03%
Oats May 12 $3.08, up 5.75, +1.90%
Oats Dec 12 $3.16, up 0.25, +0.08%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.385, up 2.5 cents, +0.30%
Spring Wheat May 12 $8.2625, up 3.25, +0.39%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.9425, up 1.75, +0.22%
Nearby light crude oil in New York rose $1.48 to settle at $97.84 a barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0055 US, up from $1.0015 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 99.45 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite unofficially ended up 23.80 points, or 0.2 percent at 12,577.28. It was the TSX’s highest close since Oct. 8
Unofficially the Dow Jones industrial average was up 153.49 points, or 1.21 percent, at 12,858.90. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 19.12 points, or 1.44 percent, at 1,344.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 45.66 points, or 1.60 percent, at 2,905.34.
For the week, the TSX was up 0.9 percent, the Dow rose 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq was up 3.2 percent.
