Canola rises on big Chinese corn imports

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Published: April 27, 2012

Canola and other crop futures jumped higher Friday on a huge weekly sale of U.S. corn, with China the likely major buyer.

Tight old crop stocks of canola also supported the oilseed.

May rose as high as $665.90 but closed well off the peak at $647.30 per tonne, up $2.30.

July canola closed at $638.80, up $7.20.

November closed at $579.80, up $2.10.

Strong U.S. soybean weekly exports lifted the price of that crop but the big news was in corn.

May corn gained 4.65 percent on the day

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The USDA reported the largest one-day sale of U.S. corn since 1991 totaling 1.56 million tonnes, with grain traders saying that most of it was going to China.

• For the week, May canola gained $27.70 per tonne reflecting the very tight old crop stocks.

November rose only $4.30, refecting expectations for a record new crop.

• It is raining in southern Alberta and the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border area today.

• Today Informa Economics slashed its estimate of the 2012 Argentine soybean crop to 40 million tonnes, down five million from its previous forecast. That is the lowest of current forecasts which are mostly around 42-43 million. USDA’s April forecast was 45 million. It  will likely reduce its forecast in its May report.

• French analysts Strategie Grains today pegged the European Union rapeseed crop at 17.6 million tonnes, a six-year low.

That estimate is lower than Oil World’s forecast of 18.48 million.

Last year the crop was about 19.1 million tonnes.

• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 149,089 tonnes of canola in the week ending April 25. That was up about five percent from the week before and  represented a capacity use of almost 90 percent.

So far this year, members have crushed about 5.04 million tonnes, up from 4.48 million last year at the same time.

• Frost in the northern Midwest could cause minor crop damage this weekend. Rain is expected in the Midwest next week.

Rain is also expected in the southern plains hard red wheat belt, improving the already good condition of that crop.

• Ukraine’s harvest is expected to fall to 45 to 50 million tonnes of grain in 2012 but its exports could remain robust at 20 to 25 million tonnes, said a Ukraine newspaper quoting farm minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk.

In the current year it produced 56.7 million tonnes and so far has exported 17 million tonnes.

There will be a larger than normal carry in of stocks to the new crop year, which will reduce the negative effect of the smaller crop.

 

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola May 12 $647.30, up $2.30       +0.36%

Canola Jul 12 $638.80, up $7.20       +1.14%

Canola Nov 12 $579.80, up $2.10       +0.36%

Canola Jan 13 $583.70, up $2.40       +0.41%

The previous trading day’s best basis in the par region saw a big shift to -$8.00 under the May contract, said ICE Futures Canada.

The 14-day relative strength index was unavailable.

Western Barley May 12 $242.00, unchanged

Western Barley Jul 12 $237.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 12 $252.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12 $257.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13 $267.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12 $277.50, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12 $282.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13 $288.60, unchanged

Barley Oct 12 $183.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12 $186.70, unchanged

Barley Mar 13 $188.20, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans May 12 $14.9675, up 15.5 cents +1.05%

Soybeans Jul 12 $14.935, up 13.25  +0.90%

Soybeans Nov 12 $13.62, up 3.25  +0.24%

Corn May 12 $6.53, up 29.0  +4.65%

Corn Jul 12 $6.255, up 18.0  +2.96%

Corn Dec 12 $5.3875, up 3.75  +0.70%

Oats May 12 $3.3575, down 2.0  -0.59%

Oats Jul 12        3.41.75, up 1.25  +0.37%

Oats Dec 12        3.495, up 2.5  +0.72%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat May 12 $774-0, up 6.25 cents +0.81%

Spring Wheat Jul 12 $778-6, up 5.75  +0.74%

Spring Wheat Sep 12 $778-4, up 8.25  +1.07%

Spring Wheat Dec 12 $780-6, up 7.0  +0.90%

The nearby New York light sweet crude contract rose 38 cents to $104.93 US.

The Canadian dollar noon rate is $1.197 US, up from $1.0162 the day before.

The U.S. dollar at noon was 98.07 Cdn.

Excellent corporate earnings drove  stock markets up this week despite weaker than expected economic news and worries about Eurozone debt.

U.S. commerce department said today American gross domestic product in the first quarter expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate, down from the fourth quarter’s three percent rate. Analysts expected a slightly better performance.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index  unofficially ended up 91.90 points, or 0.76 percent, at 12,237.75.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 23.69 points, or 0.18 percent, to 13,228.31.

The S&P 500 Index gained 3.38 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,403.36.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 18.59 points, or 0.61 percent, to 3,069.20.

For the week, the TSX rose 0.74 percent, the Dow rose 1.5 percent, the S&P gained 1.8 percent, and the Nasdaq added 2.3 percent.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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