Canola rises; July at premium to November

Slow farmer selling and short covering lifted canola futures Tuesday.

Canola also enjoyed support from rising soybean complex, fueled by the tight supply of U.S. beans.

The July canola contract now has a $4 premium to new crop November, indicating that grain companies might be having trouble getting the supply they need because farmers are tied up with seeding.

Commercial and speculative buying added to canola’s strength. Canola is still under priced relative to other oil seeds.

In corn, the price declines Friday and Monday led to bargain buying today. USDA today confirmed an export sale of old crop corn to South Korea.

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U.S. grains: Soybeans rise on China demand hopes; corn and wheat rebound

Chicago Board of Trade soybean, corn and wheat futures rose on Monday on signs of progress towards the end of a record-long U.S. government shutdown, along with expectations of a revival of U.S. soybean exports to China, analysts said.

The rise in soybeans also provided support for corn. However, U.S. corn will struggle in coming weeks, as ample South American corn is also available.

USDA said farmers made huge progress with seeding last week. As of May 11 59 percent of the corn crop had been seeded, one percentage point higher than the five-year average.

Twenty percent of soybeans had been seeded, one percentage point below the five-year average.

Chicago and Kansas wheat fell on Tuesday but new crop Minneapolis spring wheat edged higher.

USDA winter wheat condition ratings out Monday showed the condition of the hard red crop in the southern Plains continued to deteriorate. But traders believe U.S. prices are getting too far ahead of competing wheat sources.

USDA said 34 percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, below the five-year average of 53 percent. That was likely the reason for the spring wheat rally today.

Seeding is also delayed in the Canadian Prairies.

There is a chance of showers in many parts of the Prairies Friday and again early next week.

Crop conditions are improving in Europe. The EU’s crop monitor on Monday edged up its yield forecast for this year’s wheat crop, saying recent rain had improved conditions in western countries.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister today say 86 percent of the country’s corn crop had been seeded. The official forecast is for 5.136 million hectares, up from 4.8 million last year.

Most analysts think the turmoil in Ukraine will lower corn production. The recent USDA report pegged Ukraine’s corn crop at 26 million tonnes, down from 30.9 million last year.

Recent weather in Ukraine is conducive to good crop development.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2014 511.20 +12.60 +2.53%

Canola Jul 2014 497.20 +12.60 +2.60%

Canola Nov 2014 492.70 +6.40 +1.32%

Canola Jan 2015 495.80 +5.10 +1.04%

Canola Mar 2015 498.70 +3.90 +0.79%

Milling Wheat May 2014 241.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 246.00 +1.00 +0.41%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 247.00 +1.00 +0.41%

Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 252.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2014 139.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 141.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 141.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2014 1502.25 +18.5 +1.25%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1483.75 +18.5 +1.26%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1415.5 +10.75 +0.77%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1276.75 +6.75 +0.53%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1219 +6.75 +0.56%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1225.5 +6.75 +0.55%

Soybean Meal May 2014 497.7 +8.2 +1.68%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 484.7 +6.5 +1.36%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 458.9 +3.7 +0.81%

Soybean Oil May 2014 41 +0.22 +0.54%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 41.21 +0.23 +0.56%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 41.14 +0.24 +0.59%

Corn May 2014 503.25 +5.75 +1.16%

Corn Jul 2014 502.75 +3.25 +0.65%

Corn Sep 2014 496.5 +2.5 +0.51%

Corn Dec 2014 495 +3 +0.61%

Corn Mar 2015 503 +2.5 +0.50%

Oats May 2014 408.5 -1.5 -0.37%

Oats Jul 2014 355.5 -1.5 -0.42%

Oats Sep 2014 338.25 -5 -1.46%

Oats Dec 2014 333 -0.25 -0.08%

Oats Mar 2015 329 unch 0.00%

Wheat May 2014 700 -5.5 -0.78%

Wheat Jul 2014 709.25 -5.75 -0.80%

Wheat Sep 2014 718 -6 -0.83%

Wheat Dec 2014 733.25 -6 -0.81%

Wheat Mar 2015 747.25 -5 -0.66%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2014 790 -2 -0.25%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 794.75 +4 +0.51%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 801.25 +3.5 +0.44%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 811.5 +3 +0.37%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 817.75 +2.5 +0.31%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat May 2014 824.25 +0.25 +0.03%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 824.75 +0.25 +0.03%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 829 -1.5 -0.18%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 840.25 -1.5 -0.18%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 843.5 -1.75 -0.21%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.11 at $101.70 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.81 cents US, down from 91.85 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0892 Cdn.

Markets largely brushed off negative economic news.

U.S. retail sales rose only a little in April and a gauge of consumer spending slipped.

In China, figures showed a widespread slowing of economic activity in April, with data from output to investment and consumption all missing market expectations, increasing calls for government policies to support growth, Reuters reported.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 20.06 points, or 0.14 percent, at 14,675. It has gained about 7.7 percent this year.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 19.97 points, or 0.12 percent, to end at 16,715.44, a new record high.

The S&P 500 gained just 0.8 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to finish at 1,897.45, also a record.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.69 points, or 0.33 percent, to close at 4,130.165.