Canola futures posted another positive day riding the coattails of soy meal.
November canola closed at $452.90 per tonne, up $1.30 or 0.29 percent and most-traded January closed at $439, up $4.40, up 1.01 percent.
Over the week, November gained $41.90 or 10.2 percent and January climbed $27.60 or 6.7 percent.
The shortage of soybean meal in the cash market in the U.S. pushed the feed ingredient higher again, closing at $387.20 per short ton, up $7.20 or 1.89 percent from Thursday.
Shortly before the close meal was around $394 but it sold off sharply in the last moments of trade.
Over the month, front month soy meal rose 27 percent, soybeans gained 14 percent, canola 14.3 percent and soy oil rose 7.6 percent.
Canada’s agricultural markets videos will now be available on Thursday mornings.
Crops:
Livestock:
Analysts expect the soy meal price will remain strong for a few more weeks until crushers finally get the soybean supply they need to ramp up production to match the domestic and export demand.
At that point they expect this rally will stall out and reverse.
However some chart watchers believe a key technical reversal happened this week in corn and soybeans, indicating that the long crop price decline since the summer of 2012 has reached its end and crop prices will start to grind higher over time.
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Prairie wheat bids fall with U.S. futures
Hard red spring wheat bids in Western Canada dropped with the U.S. futures during the week ended July 17, as the advancing U.S. winter wheat harvest and a lack of major concerns for North American spring wheat weighed on values.
Today the rising U.S. dollar presented a strong headwind against crop futures price increases. The U.S. buck shot up against most major currencies after a surprise announcement from Japan’s central bank that it would increase its stimulus program to avoid deflation. Still struggling Japan and Europe are stoking stimulus while the U.S. is cutting back.
Corn followed soybeans higher today. On the week, corn rose 6.6 percent and in October it gained 17.3 percent.
The strength in corn however was not enough to lift wheat today. The stronger U.S. dollar and the desire to take profits after this month’s rally pressured wheat lower.
Chicago and Minneapolis wheat slipped a little less than one percent, but Kansas hard red winter fell 1.7 percent.
Over the month, Chicago soft wheat rose 11 percent, Kansas hard winter wheat rose six percent and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 7.5 percent.
Turning back to canola, the head of Louis Dreyfus Commodities Canada, Brant Randles today said the company’s Yorkton crushing plant, damaged by an explosion last week, might be able to resume taking canola deliveries in three to seven weeks.
The company is working with contractors and engineers to find a way to allow operations to resume.
The loss of the plant showed up in the weekly canola crush.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 132,987 tonnes of canola in the week ending Oct. 29, down almost 11 percent from the week before.
That represented about 75 percent of the crush capacity, down from an average of 82.5 percent so far this crop year.
Yesterday I reported that one Australian forecaster said the wheat crop there could fall to 22 million tonnes if hot, dry weather continues. Today the US agricultural attaché in Australia lowered his assessment to 24 million tonnes, the same as the International Grains Council.
The current official USDA forecast is 25 million.
Other forecasts range from 20 to 23 million tonnes.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 58 cents at US$80.54 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.69 cents, down from 89.34 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1275.
The news about Japan’s stimulus lifted North American stock indexes with the Dow and S&P 500 posting new record highs.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 154.63 points, or 1.07 percent, at 14,613.32.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 191.95 points, or 1.12 percent, to 17,387.37, the S&P 500 gained 23.03 points, or 1.15 percent, to 2,017.68 and the Nasdaq Composite added 64.60 points, or 1.41 percent, to 4,630.74, the highest close for the Nasdaq since March 2000.
For the week, the TSX gained only 0.5 percent, held back by weak gold and energy stocks.
Over the week the S&P rose 2.7 percent and the Nasdaq rose 3.3 percent. The Dow gained 3.4 percent in its biggest weekly advance since January 2013.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 452.90 +1.30 +0.29%
Canola Jan 2015 439.00 +4.40 +1.01%
Canola Mar 2015 439.80 +6.60 +1.52%
Canola May 2015 440.80 +6.40 +1.47%
Canola Jul 2015 441.60 +6.70 +1.54%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 224.00 -2.00 -0.88%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 230.00 -2.00 -0.86%
Milling Wheat May 2015 233.00 -3.00 -1.27%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 1046.5 +22.25 +2.17%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1049.25 +19.5 +1.89%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1053.25 +17.25 +1.67%
Soybeans May 2015 1058 +15.5 +1.49%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1062.75 +14.5 +1.38%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1062.75 +13.75 +1.31%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 389 +9 +2.37%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 366.7 +5.6 +1.55%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 346.2 +3.7 +1.08%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 34.8 +0.49 +1.43%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 35.02 +0.48 +1.39%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 35.24 +0.46 +1.32%
Corn Dec 2014 376.75 +2.75 +0.74%
Corn Mar 2015 389.25 +2.25 +0.58%
Corn May 2015 398 +2.25 +0.57%
Corn Jul 2015 404.25 +1.75 +0.43%
Corn Sep 2015 410.25 +1.75 +0.43%
Oats Dec 2014 336.25 -2.25 -0.66%
Oats Mar 2015 329 -2.25 -0.68%
Oats May 2015 326 unch 0.00%
Oats Jul 2015 319.25 +0.5 +0.16%
Oats Sep 2015 322.25 +1 +0.31%
Wheat Dec 2014 532.5 -3.5 -0.65%
Wheat Mar 2015 545.75 -3.25 -0.59%
Wheat May 2015 553.25 -3.75 -0.67%
Wheat Jul 2015 560.25 -4.5 -0.80%
Wheat Sep 2015 570.5 -4.75 -0.83%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 574.25 -3.5 -0.61%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 584.5 -4.25 -0.72%
Spring Wheat May 2015 593 -4.5 -0.75%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 602.25 -5 -0.82%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 610.25 -5.25 -0.85%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 593.75 -8.25 -1.37%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 599 -8.25 -1.36%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 601.5 -7.75 -1.27%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 597.75 -6 -0.99%
Hard Red Wheat Sept 2015 607.5 -5.5 -0.90%
