The U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly report Tuesday was negative for wheat prices, neutral for soybeans and slightly bullish for corn, however all major U.S. grain futures closed lower.
Canola took it on the chin again, falling more than $11 or 2.4 percent as speculative sell stops were triggered on the way down. Canola is now in oversold territory based on the 14-day Relative Strength Index and there isn’t much in the way of technical support with the price now the lowest since September 2010.
The Canadian dollar gained slightly, today adding to canola’s woes. Also soy oil was down. USDA forecast global year end soy oil stocks at 3.51 million tonnes, up from 3.44 million in November, but still down a little from 2012-13’s 3.53 million.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures jump on hopes for US export demand
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures jumped on hopes for U.S. export demand on Wednesday, while corn futures rose for a third day to extend a recovery from contract lows, analysts said.
The three day price drop has spooked farmers and sparked increased farm sales which also added to the downward pressure as grain company’s hedged the grain they bought.
The new, low canola price should improve crush profit margins and start sparking increased canola demand. Can the rail/handling systems push through more exports though?
The USDA report was most negative for wheat with the department taking into account the huge Canadian wheat crop and a big crop in Australia.
The year-end stocks forecast for U.S. and world were bearish.
USDA pegged global ending stocks at 182.78 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 178.48 million and topping trade expectations for 179.11 million.
It said U.S. year-end stocks would be 575 million bushels, up 10 million from November and topping analysts’ average estimate of 540 million bu.
The data caused wheat futures to fall and that weighed on corn. Immediately following the USDA report corn futures rose but were unable to break through the 50-day moving average. It then fell on wheat’s effect and on profit taking.
USDA pegged domestic corn ending stocks 1.792 billion bu. The trade expected 1.871 billion. USDA increased its forecasts for U.S. corn exports and use in ethanol production by 50 million bu. each.
Global corn ending stocks were 162.46 million tonnes. The trade expected 163.30 million.
The USDA report as almost neutral for soybeans but still futures closed lower, partly on new crop size data from Brazil.
Soybeans US 2013-14 ending stocks were forecast at 0.150 billion bu. Trade expected 0.153 billion bu.
Soybean global ending stocks were 70.62 million tonnes. The trade expected 71.64 million
USDA kept its forecast for Brazilian soybean production at 88 million tonnes but Brazil’s government today pegged output at 90.03 million tonnes, near the top of its previous forecast of 87.9 million to 90.2 million tonne.
USDA raised its soybean forecast for Argentina one million tonnes to 54.50 million.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 454.90 -11.40 -2.44%
Canola Mar 2014 465.10 -11.20 -2.35%
Canola May 2014 473.90 -11.30 -2.33%
Canola Jul 2014 481.40 -11.40 -2.31%
Canola Nov 2014 492.10 -11.20 -2.23%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 195.00 -7.00
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 208.00 -6.00
Milling Wheat May 2014 219.00 -8.00
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 251.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 255.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1338.25 -5.5 -0.41%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1322 -4.75 -0.36%
Soybeans May 2014 1304.5 -7.25 -0.55%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1291.25 -8.5 -0.65%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1259.75 -6.25 -0.49%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1204 -6.25 -0.52%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 464.1 +2.5 +0.54%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 438.3 -0.4 -0.09%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 426.6 -1.9 -0.44%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 39.91 -0.14 -0.35%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.11 -0.11 -0.27%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.5 -0.11 -0.27%
Corn Dec 2013 427.5 -1 -0.23%
Corn Mar 2014 436 -2 -0.46%
Corn May 2014 444.5 -2 -0.45%
Corn Jul 2014 451.75 -1.75 -0.39%
Corn Sep 2014 458 -1.75 -0.38%
Oats Dec 2013 376 +4.25 +1.14%
Oats Mar 2014 336 +3.75 +1.13%
Oats May 2014 322 +2.5 +0.78%
Oats Jul 2014 320.25 +2.75 +0.87%
Oats Sep 2014 320.5 -3.5 -1.08%
Wheat Dec 2013 629.5 -9.5 -1.49%
Wheat Mar 2014 638.75 -11.75 -1.81%
Wheat May 2014 644.25 -11.25 -1.72%
Wheat Jul 2014 642.25 -10.75 -1.65%
Wheat Sep 2014 651.5 -10.25 -1.55%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 658.75 -9.25 -1.38%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 668 -8.75 -1.29%
Spring Wheat May 2014 679 -7.75 -1.13%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 688.5 -6.25 -0.90%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 697 -6.25 -0.89%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 694.5 -9 -1.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 684.25 -11.75 -1.69%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 686.25 -10.75 -1.54%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 680.5 -8.5 -1.23%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 691.25 -6.75 -0.97%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.17 at $98.51 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 94.14 cents US, up from 93.98 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0623 Cdn.
U.S. stock markets took a bit of a breather today after the S&P 500 posted new record high on Monday. In Canada, stronger gold mining stocks helped lift the TSX composite.
