A rising loonie, increased farmer deliveries and weaker soy oil futures took the wind out of canola’s sails on Thursday after a one-day rally.
Canola started out in positive territory, but commercial hedges as farmers priced crop and the rising loonie took their toll by late morning.
Good crusher buying limited losses. Crusher margins are much better than they were last year at this time.
November canola closed at $481.70, down $2.
The January contract is about $10 higher, reflecting the trend of plugged elevators and the lack of interest among buyers for immediate delivery.
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Soybeans rose a little on word of strong weekly U.S. exports of soy meal and talk of new U.S. soybean sales to China. Now that U.S. politicians have voted to reopen the government some USDA reports, including export inspections, are trickling out. However, the department today said it would not release the October crop supply and demand report. It will produce the November report, slated for Nov. 8.
Corn and wheat posted small gains on bargain buying and talk of China buying corn.
A Bloomberg story quoting Roy Huckabay of Linn Group said there was speculation that China bought more than 3 million tonnes of soybeans and up to 2.5 million tonnes of U.S. corn the past three weeks.
Wheat got a minor boost from talk that cold weather in Argentina might further trim the wheat crop there and heavy rain in Brazil is hampering its wheat harvest.
Oats futures retreated after their surprising rally of the past two days, which was triggered by congestion in the handling system.
There are a lot of anecdotal reports that American farmers are seeing better than expected yields. The late August dry heat might not have done as much damage as expected.
This yield increase could be officially recognized in the November USDA report, raising the potential for a market-shocking report. Instead of better yields being gradually reflected over two reports, it might all show up in one report.
The Canadian Grain Commission this week has some export figures from terminal elevators for this country. It also has a list of the ships that have taken delivery of Canadian grain over the course of the crop year so far.
The report says exports from terminal elevators in the crop year to Oct. 10 are in tonnes:
wheat 2.24 million (2.35 million last year)
Durum 595,600 (692,300 last year)
Canola 909,100 (1,084,200)
Peas 595,600 (430,900)
Lentils 131,600 (n/a)
It does not have figures for barley or oats.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 481.70 -2.00 -0.41%
Canola Jan 2014 491.80 -1.70 -0.34%
Canola Mar 2014 499.80 -1.50 -0.30%
Canola May 2014 506.70 -1.40 -0.28%
Canola Jul 2014 512.60 -1.20 -0.23%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 235.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 241.00 +1.00 +0.42%
Milling Wheat May 2014 247.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1293.25 +16.75 +1.31%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1289.5 +14.75 +1.16%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1273.25 +10 +0.79%
Soybeans May 2014 1257.75 +9 +0.72%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1254.5 +7.75 +0.62%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1243 +6.75 +0.55%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 413 +9.2 +2.28%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 408 +8.3 +2.08%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 397.9 +5.9 +1.51%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 41.12 -0.25 -0.60%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.43 -0.24 -0.58%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 41.83 -0.23 -0.55%
Corn Dec 2013 443 +0.25 +0.06%
Corn Mar 2014 455.5 +0.25 +0.05%
Corn May 2014 463.75 +0.25 +0.05%
Corn Jul 2014 470.75 +0.25 +0.05%
Corn Sep 2014 476 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2013 331.75 -4.25 -1.26%
Oats Mar 2014 307.75 -4.5 -1.44%
Oats May 2014 305.75 -2.25 -0.73%
Oats Jul 2014 302.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2014 301.75 unch 0.00%
Wheat Dec 2013 686 +4.5 +0.66%
Wheat Mar 2014 696 +5 +0.72%
Wheat May 2014 699.25 +4.75 +0.68%
Wheat Jul 2014 687.25 +3 +0.44%
Wheat Sep 2014 692.5 +3 +0.44%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 745 +2.5 +0.34%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 754.75 +3 +0.40%
Spring Wheat May 2014 759.75 +2.75 +0.36%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 760.5 +4 +0.53%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 758 +2 +0.26
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 749 +4.25 +0.57%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 748 +4.75 +0.64%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 747.5 +5.25 +0.71%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 732.75 +5.25 +0.72%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 739.25 +4.75 +0.65%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.08 at $102.29 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 97.23 cents US, up from 96.67 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0285 Cdn.
The end of the U.S. budget and debt ceiling standoff caused stock markets to rally.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 79.15 points, or 0.61 percent, to close at 13,036.36, the highest point since late July, 2011.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 3.98 points, or 0.03 percent, at 15,369.85.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved into new record high territory, climbing 11.36 points, or 0.66 percent, to close at 1,732.90.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 23.72 points, or 0.62 percent, at 3,863.15.
