Tuesday was a good day for soybean oil, and canola followed right along, rising half a percent in value, or about $2.20 per tonne on the November futures contract.
But it was a generally flat and dull day, marked by slight weakness as the inexorable flow of new crop to elevators off the combine restrains the ability of crops to hold their value.
Indeed, farmer and grain company hedging is likely the reason canola prices stumbled in the morning before staging a moderate rise into the close of trading.
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“I think the early morning weakness was actually harvest selling,” said Errol Anderson, broker and editor of the Pro Market Wire report.
The rebound of canola values was a good sign for people with long crop, such as farmers, but November futures continue to shuffle along beneath $400 per tonne. Breaking above $400 would cheer longs and even make some bullish, Anderson said. There’s nothing magical about $400, but it’s the kind of round number trigger that makes some sell when it moves beneath and buy when it pops above.
“That’s a very significant ceiling,” said Anderson.
“The trading window just changed when it fell through that.”
Anderson also thinks canola could independently rally, reversing the recent weakness.
“We’re oversold. We’re due for a bounce. But by the same breath I’m not sure we’re at the bottom yet,” said Anderson.
That’s because soybeans keep filling U.S. farmers’ bins, with reports of big, big yields adding pressure to prices, with buyers backing away from bidding because nothing suggests soybeans will be harder to obtain tomorrow than today.
“November beans have a shot of moving down towards nine bucks a bushel,” said Anderson.
If that happens, Anderson expects canola to subside to $365 to $370.
Corn was the weakest crop Tuesday, dropping 1.5 percent and dragging oats down with it.
Wheat too was soft and uninspiring.
Commodities overall were flat on the day, with meats and metals the strongest and grains the weakest of the complex.
Stock markets had another bad day, with the Dow 30 giving back another 90 points by mid-afternoon and the Standard and Poors 500 falling and staying beneath 2,000.
The U.S. co-ordinated air attacks on ISIS in Iraq and Syria overnight, but they didn’t cause more than a tremor in world markets.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 396.80 +2.20 +0.56%
Canola Jan 2015 403.30 +2.00 +0.50%
Canola May 2015 416.30 +2.30 +0.56%
Canola Jul 2015 421.70 +2.60 +0.62%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 186.00 -1.00 -0.53%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 190.00 -1.00 -0.52%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 199.00 -1.00 -0.50%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 303.20 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 309.70 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 310.70 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 123.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 125.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 126.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 936.25 -2 -0.21%
Soybeans Jan 2015 943.75 -2 -0.21%
Soybeans Mar 2015 951 -1.25 -0.13%
Soybeans May 2015 958 -0.75 -0.08%
Soybeans Jul 2015 963.5 -0.75 -0.08%
Soybeans Aug 2015 966 -0.75 -0.08%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014 317.1 -2.3 -0.72%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 308.9 -1.6 -0.52%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 306.3 -1.1 -0.36%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014 32.23 +0.23 +0.72%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 32.32 +0.2 +0.62%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 32.59 +0.2 +0.62%
Corn Dec 2014 325.5 -4.75 -1.44%
Corn Mar 2015 338.25 -4.5 -1.31%
Corn May 2015 346.75 -4.5 -1.28%
Corn Jul 2015 354 -4.25 -1.19%
Corn Sep 2015 361.5 -4 -1.09%
Oats Dec 2014 332.75 -3.75 -1.11%
Oats Mar 2015 320.25 -3 -0.93%
Oats May 2015 314.25 -1.5 -0.48%
Oats Jul 2015 311.25 +0.25 +0.08%
Oats Sep 2015 315.5 unch 0.00%
Wheat Dec 2014 476 -0.75 -0.16%
Wheat Mar 2015 488.25 -1.25 -0.26%
Wheat May 2015 496.75 -2.25 -0.45%
Wheat Jul 2015 504.75 -3.75 -0.74%
Wheat Sep 2015 517.5 -4.75 -0.91%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 534.5 -2.25 -0.42%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 549.75 -1.75 -0.32%
Spring Wheat May 2015 560.25 -2 -0.36%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 571.25 -1.25 -0.22%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 582.5 -1.75 -0.30%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 562 +1.75 +0.31%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 566.25 +1 +0.18%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 562.25 +0.25 +0.04%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 574.25 +0.75 +0.13%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 69 cents at $91.56 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.42 cents US, down from 90.84 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1060 Cdn.
