Canola prices made a valiant effort to rise above $400 per tonne Friday, but couldn’t hold all the ground gained during the session and closed only modestly higher at $398.30.
It was a markedly different day to Thursday and Wednesday, days that saw large losses in canola. More than $20 was lost between the beginning of trading Wednesday and the close on Thursday.
Friday saw a general recovery, with March peaking briefly above $404, but closing shy of the psychologically important $400 mark.
May futures crawled back $4.10 per tonne to $408.90.
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Traders said the slump on Wednesday and Thursday was a manifestation of underlying problems with prairie canola values rather than anything caused by a change in supply and demand fundamentals or unusual market activity.
Because of the transportation problems, canola prices can’t drive higher even when other crops are rising as they were on Thursday.
“There’s lots of demand in the world, but we can’t move it,” said John Duvenaud, editor of Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory.
“We are $1.60 (per bushel) undervalued … compared with the normal relationship with soy oil. What can change that? Probably nothing this winter.”
Grain companies can’t get enough canola to port to export it overseas. Flow to the U.S. is similarly bogged down. Crushers are having trouble moving oil and meal, reducing their appetite.
Oat futures continued to reflect logistical problems between prairie supplies and futures contract delivery locations, with an 11-cent rise Friday taking the March contract to $4.21 per bushel. May futures are discounted relative to March, with Friday’s five-cent rise taking them to $3.88.
Spring wheat futures for March and May are also inverted, reflecting the logistics problems.
Soybeans dipped on Friday reflecting a slightly weaker cash market in the U.S. On the week, nearby soybeans rose 0.5 percent
Corn edged higher. On the week, the nearby contract inched up 0.3 percent.
Wheat again climbed, supported by dry soils on the southern U.S. plains.
On the week, Chicago March wheat rose 3.6 percent while Minneapolis wheat climbed 4.6 percent.
Generally, most commodity markets were higher, as were U.S. stock markets.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 398.20 +4.20 +1.07%
Canola May 2014 408.80 +4.10 +1.01%
Canola Jul 2014 418.40 +4.20 +1.01%
Canola Nov 2014 436.40 +4.10 +0.95%
Canola Jan 2015 443.60 +3.80 +0.86%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 194.00 +2.00 +1.04%
Milling Wheat May 2014 194.00 +1.00 +0.52%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 194.00 +1.00 +0.52%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1337.5 -6.75 -0.50%
Soybeans May 2014 1325 -5.5 -0.41%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1307.5 -4.5 -0.34%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1258.75 -4 -0.32%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1179.75 -2.5 -0.21%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1130.5 -3.25 -0.29%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 450 -2.8 -0.62%
Soybean Meal May 2014 432.3 -0.4 -0.09%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 420.5 +0.5 +0.12%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 39.15 -0.39 -0.99%
Soybean Oil May 2014 39.47 -0.4 -1.00%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 39.76 -0.41 -1.02%
Corn Mar 2014 445.25 +4.75 +1.08%
Corn May 2014 450.75 +4.25 +0.95%
Corn Jul 2014 455 +4 +0.89%
Corn Sep 2014 456.25 +4 +0.88%
Corn Dec 2014 459.75 +3.5 +0.77%
Oats Mar 2014 421.75 +11 +2.68%
Oats May 2014 388.75 +5.5 +1.44%
Oats Jul 2014 349.5 +5.75 +1.67%
Oats Sep 2014 328 +4.75 +1.47%
Oats Dec 2014 309 +0.5 +0.16%
Wheat Mar 2014 598.5 +3 +0.50%
Wheat May 2014 596.25 +2.25 +0.38%
Wheat Jul 2014 600.5 +3 +0.50%
Wheat Sep 2014 608.75 +2.5 +0.41%
Wheat Dec 2014 621 +2.25 +0.36%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 666.5 +4.25 +0.64%
Spring Wheat May 2014 647 +1.5 +0.23%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 648 +1.75 +0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 654.75 +2 +0.31%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 666.5 +3 +0.45%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 674.5 +1.75 +0.26%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 666 +1.25 +0.19%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 657 +1.75 +0.27%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 664 +1.5 +0.23%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 674.25 +0.75 +0.11%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 5 cents at $100.30 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.07 cents US, unchanged from the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0981 Cdn.
Stock market investors turned positive during the week, chalking up weak U.S. economic data for January as a temporary problem associated with bitter cold and snowstorms.
For the week, the TSX composite index closed up 1.9 percent. The Dow and S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent while the Nasdaq added 2.9 percent.
