Strong U.S. weekly soybean exports drove January soybeans up 1.25 percent but canola managed only a 0.02 percent gain on Friday.
The large size of the Canadian canola crop and the lack of booming exports limited canola gains.
January closed at $490.60, up 10 cents although at one point it had climbed as high as $495.40.
For the week January fell $2.10.
So far this crop year, canola exports are lagging behind the pace of the last two years by 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports are booming. Weekly export sales announced today were 1.77 million tonnes, combining old and new crop years. That topped expectations for 700,000 to 1.3 million tonnes.
Read Also
U.S. livestock: Cattle hit fresh highs, hogs inch upward
Chicago cattle futures hit fresh highs on Monday while hogs made small gains.
The USDA also said private exporters reported sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2014-15 delivery.
Chicago soymeal jumped up 1.4 percent, approaching a contract high set Wednesday.
A couple of major oilseed analysts have differing opinions about the trend of the oilseed market this year. We’ll cover that after touching on the rest of today’s grain trade.
Weekly U.S. corn and wheat export sales of one million tonnes and 562,200 tonnes, respectively, were in line with expectations, Reuters reported.
Corn slid again, but Chicago wheat edged higher on prospects for improved U.S. wheat exports. Minneapolis spring wheat did not rise.
On Thursday, Argentina’s agriculture minister pegged the wheat crop there at 8.5 million tonnes, well below the most recent USDA forecast of 11 million tonnes.
Reuters reported that China’s Xinhua News Agency reported that China returned a batch of U.S. corn that showed a genetically modified trait not allowed by its Ministry of Agriculture.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported members crushed 140,004 tonnes of canola in the week ended. That was down 1.2 percent from the week before and represented a capacity use of about 80 percent. So far this year about 2.11 million tonnes of canola have been processed, down from 2.34 million last year at the same time.
Two of the world’s major oilseed analysts — Thomas Mielke, the executive director of analytic firm Oil World, and Dorab Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries — have somewhat differing opinions about the trend in oilseed prices, although they agree that values could drop by next June.
Mielke was speaking at his company’s outlook conference in Germany while Mistry was at a palm oil industry conference in Indonesia.
Bloomberg reported Mielke thinks soybean prices will likely drop to $11.50 a bushel by June from about $13.36 today.
He sees world soybean production may climb 7.3 percent from last season to a record 286.5 million tonnes, if South America harvests what promises to be a record crop if weather co-operates.
South American farmers are just now seeding their soybean crops.
He cautioned that some areas of Brazil have experienced an infestation of caterpillars and are affected by soybean rust disease, Bloomberg reported. The outlook would turn more bullish if those problems become severe.
Mistry appeared a bit more upbeat. His focus was on palm oil, but its price influences soybean oil and canola.
He believes Palm oil could rally 13 percent from current prices by March of next year, sparked by rising demand for biodiesel in Southeast Asia and Brazil.
“If you ask me for the three most important factors for palm oil today, my answer will simply be: biodiesel, biodiesel and biodiesel,” Mistry said at an industry meeting in Indonesia, Reuters reported.
Global biofuel demand is expected to increase by at least 2.5 million tonnes in 2014, Mistry said, in the Reuters story.
The dominant palm oil producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, are both increasing the requirement for palm content in diesel fuel.
Brazil is contemplating an increase in soy oil in diesel, in a change that could result in up to 10 percent more of an expected record soybean crop getting crushed into meal and oil.
If all the biodiesel mandates are increased, then the target of 3,000 Malaysian ringgit ($930 US) could be reached.
A slight decline in palm production in Indonesia would also support palm prices, he said.
However, the bullishness likely ends by spring 2014 as Indonesian production recovers and South American soybeans hit the market.
But Mistry also noted that although the market expects a big South American crop, its is a long time before harvest and although weather is good now, there is always the possibility for dry weather later in the growing season.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 490.60 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Mar 2014 500.00 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola May 2014 507.50 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Jul 2014 513.40 +0.50 +0.10%
Canola Nov 2014 518.20 +0.10 +0.02%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 213.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 224.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat May 2014 234.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1336.5 +16.5 +1.25%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1317.75 +11.5 +0.88%
Soybeans May 2014 1297.75 +7.75 +0.60%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1288 +5.75 +0.45%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1259 +5.75 +0.46%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1196.5 +4.25 +0.36%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 456.6 +10.7 +2.40%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 436.6 +7 +1.63%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 424.5 +5 +1.19%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 40.22 +0.22 +0.55%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.46 +0.21 +0.52%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.86 +0.21 +0.52%
Corn Dec 2013 415.25 -2 -0.48%
Corn Mar 2014 424.5 -2 -0.47%
Corn May 2014 432.75 -2 -0.46%
Corn Jul 2014 440 -1.75 -0.40%
Corn Sep 2014 446.5 -1.75 -0.39%
Oats Dec 2013 365.25 +7.5 +2.10%
Oats Mar 2014 331.5 +2.25 +0.68%
Oats May 2014 316.75 -0.5 -0.16%
Oats Jul 2014 313.75 -1.75 -0.55%
Oats Sep 2014 320.25 -1.75 -0.54%
Wheat Dec 2013 655 +3.75 +0.58%
Wheat Mar 2014 668.75 +5.25 +0.79%
Wheat May 2014 673.75 +5.75 +0.86%
Wheat Jul 2014 670.75 +6.25 +0.94%
Wheat Sep 2014 678.5 +6.25 +0.93%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 686.75 -3.4 -0.51%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 707.5 +0.6 +0.11%
Spring Wheat May 2014 713.25 -0.6 -0.11%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 718.5 -1.4 -0.21%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 722 -1.0 -0.14%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 713.25 +0.25 +0.04%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 709.25 +2.75 +0.39%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 708.25 +2.75 +0.39%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 700.5 +4.25 +0.61%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 708 +3 +0.43%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 42 cents at $92.72 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 94.35 cents US, down from 94.40 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0599 Cdn.
Real gross domestic product grew by 2.7 percent, annualized, in the July-September period, fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, Statistics Canada reported today.
The increase was driven mainly by consumer spending, business inventory accumulation and signs of a rebound in business investment, Reuters reported.
The report followed a disappointing 1.6 percent GDP gain in the second quarter.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 24.57 points, or 0.18 percent, at 13,395.40. The benchmark is up about 7.5 percent this year.
U.S. markets operated on a shortened trading day as many participants take a four day holiday linked to U.S. Thanksgiving.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 10.92 points or 0.07 percent, to end at 16,086.41.
The S&P 500 slipped 1.42 points or 0.08 percent, to finish at 1,805.81.
But the Nasdaq Composite rose 15.14 points or 0.37 percent, to close at 4,059.89.
