Canola has weak close Friday but jumps 3.9 pct on week

Traders wrapped the week with profit taking in the canola market Friday, forcing it down at the close after being modestly higher earlier in the morning.

A sharp increase in the value of the Canadian dollar after a stronger than expected monthly jobs report also limited canola’s gains.

But the forecast for hot and mostly dry weather kept a strong floor under canola.

The weekend is expected to be exceptionally hot in southern Alberta with highs near 35 C.

Monday and Tuesday could see an unsettled period with the potential for thunderstorms popping up around the Prairies but no general rain.

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SPRING WHEAT

Spring wheat closed little changed after a sharp decline on Thursday.

Although September spring wheat peaked as high as $8.68 ½ per bushel at one point this week, it closed at $7.66 ¾, down five cents from the previous Friday.

WEATHER

The weather in the spring wheat belt of Canada and the United States generally continues stressful for developing crops.

That keeps a strong floor under the spring wheat price but a rally higher will need new bad news, such as a sharp drop in the weekly USDA crop condition report on Monday or a surprisingly low spring wheat production estimate from the USDA when it issues its first forecast of the spring crop on July 12.

Much will also depend on the heat and moisture situation in the corn belt as the crop pollinates.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THIS WEEK’S VIDEO CROP MARKET ANALYSIS

The seven-day outlook sees rain in Illinois and eastern Iowa but not much for western Iowa. Temperatures next week in Iowa are expected to hit highs of 33-35C and creep up to 35-37C the following week, which is hotter than normal and stressful in areas that don’t get rain.

CANOLA

November canola closed at $517.30 a tonne, down $1.10 on the day but up $19.30 or 3.9 percent on the week.

Canola has rallied on the hot and mostly dry weather in Western Canada and with support from soybeans.

November soybeans rallied 6.3 percent on the week.

Canola was held back as soy oil was almost unchanged on the week and the loonie rallied about a half cent on the week.

CANOLA CRUSH

Canadian crushers posted a strong week with 184,756 tonnes processed, up 6.5 percent from the week before.

That represented 86.4 percent of capacity, strong for this time of year.

The pace is on track to meet Agriculture Canada’s target of nine million tonnes for the crop year.

EXPORTS

Canola exports were 155,200 tonnes in week 48, ending July 2. That was up from 132,300 tonnes the week before.

The pace is on track to meet Agriculture Canada’s target of 10.5 million tonnes for the crop year.

Wheat exports were strong on the week with 387,100 tonnes moved.

The total for the year so far is 13.33 million tonnes and there is a good chance that performance will fall short of Agriculture Canada’s forecast of 15.6 million tonnes for the year.

Durum exports were also good on the week with 188,900 tonnes shipped, up from 62,700 the week before.

Durum exports are now on par with last year at this point. If they keep up a similar pace for the final four weeks of the crop year they should meet Agriculture Canada’s export target of 4.4 million tonnes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Canada and the USDA posted better than expected monthly jobs reports.

Canada’s economy created 45,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from May.

In the U.S., while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent from a 16-year low of 4.3 percent in May, that was because more people were looking for work, a sign of confidence in the labour market

Crude oil sank as June exports from OPEC countries topped expectations and U.S. is also increasing production.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.29 at US$44.23 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.64 cents, up from 77.07 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2880.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 50.84 points, or 0.34 percent, to 15,027.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 94.3 points, or 0.44 percent, to end at 21,414.34, the S&P 500 gained 15.43 points, or 0.64 percent, to 2,425.18 and the Nasdaq Composite added 63.62 points, or 1.04 percent, to 6,153.08.

For the week the TSX composite fell one percent, the Dow was up 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2017   517.30   -1.10   -0.21%

Canola Jan 2018   520.80   -1.50   -0.29%

Canola Mar 2018   524.20   -2.10   -0.40%

Canola May 2018   524.90   -3.10   -0.59%

Canola Jul 2018   526.00   -3.10   -0.59%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   297.00   -3.00   -1.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2017   300.00   -3.00   -0.99%

Milling Wheat Mar 2018   304.00   -2.00   -0.65%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   274.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2017   275.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2018   277.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2018   140.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017   996.00   +15.25   +1.55%

Soybeans Aug 2017   1001.00   +15.25   +1.55%

Soybeans Sep 2017   1006.25   +15.50   +1.56%

Soybeans Nov 2017   1015.50   +16.25   +1.63%

Soybeans Jan 2018   1023.25   +16.50   +1.64%

Soybeans Mar 2018   1018.75   +14.50   +1.44%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   328.50   +8.50   +2.66%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017   330.70   +8.70   +2.70%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017   332.70   +8.60   +2.65%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   32.78   -0.05   -0.15%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   32.85   -0.05   -0.15%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017   32.97   -0.06   -0.18%

 

Corn Jul 2017   382.25   +2.00   +0.53%

Corn Sep 2017   392.50   +2.00   +0.51%

Corn Dec 2017   404.75   +2.00   +0.50%

Corn Mar 2018   413.75   +1.50   +0.36%

Corn May 2018   418.25   +1.00   +0.24%

 

Oats Jul 2017   282.50   +9.75   +3.57%

Oats Sep 2017   282.75   +8.25   +3.01%

Oats Dec 2017   286.00   +9.75   +3.53%

Oats Mar 2018   284.75  +8.75   +3.17%

Oats May 2018   285.50   +8.25   +2.98%

 

Wheat Jul 2017   515.25   -3.75   -0.72%

Wheat Sep 2017   535.00   -4.00   -0.74%

Wheat Dec 2017   557.75   -3.50   -0.62%

Wheat Mar 2018   574.50   -3.50   -0.61%

Wheat May 2018   582.75   -4.00   -0.68%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   757.50   -5.75   -0.75%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   766.75   -2.25   -0.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   760.75   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018   749.25   +2.50   +0.33%

Spring Wheat May 2018   737.00   +2.00   +0.27%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   526.50   -4.00   -0.75%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   543.00   -3.50   -0.64%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   568.75   -3.50   -0.61%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   582.25   -3.00   -0.51%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018   591.00   -2.00  -0.34%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   114.78   -0.17   -0.15%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017   113.82   -0.06   -0.05%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017   114.60   +0.05   +0.04%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017   145.02   +0.40   +0.28%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017   145.02   +0.25   +0.17%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017   143.92   +0.09   +0.06%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017   91.72   +0.25   +0.27%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017   83.22   +0.57   +0.69%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017   70.98   +0.26   +0.37%