Canola futures fell Tuesday but spring wheat rallied again as the U.S. hopes to pick up business Canada is failing to serve.
Corn edged lower again despite the mildly bullish year end stocks forecast in Monday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
The market appears to feel that the modest recovery in corn futures since the low, a 40-cents per bushel rise from the low set Jan. 10, already reflects the good U.S. exports and reduced year end stocks forecast. Also, recent U.S. farmer selling has addressed any immediate needs from ethanol plants and corn processors.
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The momentum in spring wheat continued with Minneapolis wheat March futures closing at $6.60, up 8.5 cents
The contract has now gained 54 cents since the close on Jan. 31.
Of course Canadian cash prices face a wide basis of about $2 a bushel, knocking the cash price down to about $4.50.
Soybean futures closed a little higher on continuing good export demand for soybeans and soy meal, but worries about the potential for China to switch buying to South America continue to hang over the market.
USDA Monday increased its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 90 million tonnes, up one million, but that might not have reflected the recent dry, hot weather.
Reuters today reported Conab, Brazil’s government crop supply agency, cut its forecast for the first time this crop year but said the country’s harvest would still be a record 90.01 million tonnes, down from 90.33 million in its last report.
It also cut its forecast for Brazilian corn production to 75.5 million tonnes from 79 million previously.
Light showers are expected in dry regions of southern Brazil on Thursday but more substantial rain is expected Sunday and early next week.
Soy oil futures rose. Because of the close connection between soy oil and canola the recent soy oil rally would normally lift canola, but that is not the case this year because of the huge crop and the transportation issues. This graph shows percentage change in soy oil and canola prices. The black line is soy oil and the green line is canola.
March canola lost $5.10 to $416.40 per tonne, falling for a third straight session.
There appears to be a slight improvement in canola basis.
Some wider fiscal uncertainty was laid to rest Tuesday when U.S. House Republicans agreed to allow a one-year extension on the debt ceiling to pass when it comes to a vote, expected this evening. It means there will be no repeat of the government shut down that roiled markets last fall.
The news helped U.S. stock markets to rise more than one percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 416.40 -5.10 -1.21%
Canola May 2014 426.20 -5.60 -1.30%
Canola Jul 2014 435.20 -6.00 -1.36%
Canola Nov 2014 451.70 -5.10 -1.12%
Canola Jan 2015 458.30 -4.90 -1.06%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 192.00 +4.00 +2.13%
Milling Wheat May 2014 190.00 +3.00 +1.60%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 +2.00 +1.06%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1334.75 +9.25 +0.70%
Soybeans May 2014 1320.5 +8.25 +0.63%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1301.75 +6.25 +0.48%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1254 +4.5 +0.36%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1176 +6 +0.51%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1123.5 +7.25 +0.65%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 449.2 +5.2 +1.17%
Soybean Meal May 2014 431.2 +4.3 +1.01%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 418.6 +2.5 +0.60%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 38.85 +0.12 +0.31%
Soybean Oil May 2014 39.14 +0.1 +0.26%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 39.47 +0.12 +0.30%
Corn Mar 2014 441.5 -1.5 -0.34%
Corn May 2014 447.25 -1.5 -0.33%
Corn Jul 2014 452.5 -2.25 -0.49%
Corn Sep 2014 453.75 -2.25 -0.49%
Corn Dec 2014 455.75 -2.5 -0.55%
Oats Mar 2014 437.25 +15.25 +3.61%
Oats May 2014 384 +20 +5.49%
Oats Jul 2014 343.25 +14 +4.25%
Oats Sep 2014 329.25 +14 +4.44%
Oats Dec 2014 307.75 unch 0.00%
Wheat Mar 2014 590.25 +5.5 +0.94%
Wheat May 2014 589 +4 +0.68%
Wheat Jul 2014 593.25 +3.5 +0.59%
Wheat Sep 2014 601.75 +3.5 +0.59%
Wheat Dec 2014 614.5 +3.5 +0.57%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 661.25 +9.75 +1.50%
Spring Wheat May 2014 638 +9.25 +1.47%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 637.25 +8 +1.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 644 +8.75 +1.38%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 655 +7.75 +1.20%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 665.5 +2.75 +0.41%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 657 +7.75 +1.19%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 647.5 +9.25 +1.45%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 654.5 +9 +1.39%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 664.5 +9 +1.37%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 12 cents at $99.94 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.70 cents US, up from 90.51 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1025 Cdn.
In the late afternoon trade the TSX composite was trading at 13,887.53, up 93.35 points or 0.69 percent. The Dow and the S&P 500 were up about 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq was up about 1.1 percent.
