Canola futures rise $5.30 on week, frost challenges seedlings

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Published: May 13, 2016

Weakness in the Canadian dollar helped canola futures gained back ground on Friday even though the soybean complex fell.

July canola closed at $515.80 per tonne, up $9.30.

November closed at $512.90 per tonne, up $6.90.

Over the week, July rose $5.30 a tonne or one percent while November climbed $6.40 or 1.3 percent.

Canola had a rollercoaster ride this week, soaring higher following the USDA report on Tuesday that was bullish soybeans.

But then those gains were rolled back in the following days as several technical indicators showed the oilseed was in overbought territory.

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Also, a soaking rain system in much of Saskatchewan eliminated dryness concerns for most of the province, although much of Alberta and north east Saskatchewan remained dry.

Longer term forecasts are starting to show a good chance of rain for a lot of Prairies around the May long weekend, with the largest accumulations south of the TransCanada Highway.

Frost last night and this morning could have caused damage to newly emerging canola, lentils as well as winter wheat crops.

Agronomists recommend waiting three days following frost to determine if the canola growing point has been damaged.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said the weekly canola crush was 139,108 tonnes, up six percent from the week before.

However that was only 67.3 percent of industry capacity, down from the year’s average of 81.3 percent.

The crush total to date is 6.317 million tonnes, up from 5.622 million at the same point last year.

The Canadian Grain Commission’s report for week 40 to May 8 said that canola exports fell to 133,800 tonnes, down from the very strong 292,300 tonnes the week before. Canola exports have been erratic in recent weeks.

Wheat exports in week 40 were strong with 498,500 tonnes moving, up from 290,100 the week before

Soybeans edged lower today and have been giving back some the big gains made following the USDA monthly supply and demand report on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, July soybeans still managed to post a 2.9 percent gain on the week

The market thinks that the USDA report and the rally will cause American farmers to shift one to two million acres or more from corn into soybeans. The Midwest has been getting rain. Although generally seeding in the region is ahead of normal, any rain delays could increase the chance of farmers seeding shorter season soybeans instead of corn.

Wheat rose for a second day on short covering. Gains were limited by expectations for large U.S. carryout and generally good production prospects for the U.S. winter wheat crop and winter wheat crops in Europe and the Black Sea region.

Rain next week in the US plains hard red winter wheat region will support growth but also raise the potential for crop disease.

For the week, Chicago soft July wheat rose 11 cents or 2.4 percent. Kansas City hard red winter wheat July wheat rose 2.5 cents or 0.6 percent and Minneapolis hard red spring wheat July contract rose just 0.5 cent.

Corn rose a penny or two per bushel on technical support and ideas that corn area might wind up less than early forecasts.

For the week, July corn rose 13.25 cents or 3.5 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 49 cents to US$46.21 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.28 cents, down from 77.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2940.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 39.22 points, or 0.28 percent, at 13,748.58.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 1.05 percent to end at 17,535.32 and the S&P 500 lost 0.85 percent to 2,046.61.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.41 percent to 4,717.68.

The major American indexes had a rough week as traditional department store companies reported weaker than expected quarterly reports. However, data released today on April U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected.

For the week, the TSX composite gained 0.3 percent, the Dow fell 1.2 percent, the S&P dipped 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.4 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2016 515.80 +9.30 +1.84%

Canola Nov 2016 512.90 +6.90 +1.36%

Canola Jan 2017 516.90 +6.60 +1.29%

Canola Mar 2017 517.00 +4.90 +0.96%

Canola May 2017 515.90 +4.70 +0.92%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 236.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 233.00 +1.00 +0.43%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016 237.00 +1.00 +0.42%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 297.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 291.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016 293.00 unch 0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2016 1065 -7 -0.65%

Soybeans Aug 2016 1067 -7 -0.65%

Soybeans Sep 2016 1059.5 -7 -0.66%

Soybeans Nov 2016 1054.5 -6.75 -0.64%

Soybeans Jan 2017 1051.75 -6.5 -0.61%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1030 -5.5 -0.53%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 363 -1.4 -0.38%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 361 -1.6 -0.44%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016 359.7 -2 -0.55%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 32.5 -0.07 -0.21%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 32.61 -0.07 -0.21%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016 32.72 -0.07 -0.21%

 

Corn Jul 2016 390.75 +1.75 +0.45%

Corn Sep 2016 393.25 +1.5 +0.38%

Corn Dec 2016 398.25 +2 +0.50%

Corn Mar 2017 406 +2 +0.50%

Corn May 2017 410.25 +2 +0.49%

 

Oats Jul 2016 195.25 +3.5 +1.83%

Oats Sep 2016 206.75 +3.25 +1.60%

Oats Dec 2016 218.75 +2 +0.92%

Oats Mar 2017 227.75 +2.25 +1.00%

Oats May 2017 227.75 +2.25 +1.00%

 

Wheat Jul 2016 474.75 +6.75 +1.44%

Wheat Sep 2016 484 +6.25 +1.31%

Wheat Dec 2016 499.25 +5 +1.01%

Wheat Mar 2017 513.25 +4 +0.79%

Wheat May 2017 521.5 +2.5 +0.48%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 535.5 +5.5 +1.04%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 542.25 +5 +0.93%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 554.25 +4.5 +0.82%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 563 +3.25 +0.58%

Spring Wheat May 2017 568.5 +2.75 +0.49%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 456 +6.25 +1.39%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 472.75 +6.25 +1.34%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 497 +6.25 +1.27%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 513 +6 +1.18%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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