Canola futures quiet; mustard market outlook bullish

Canola futures were little changed on Thursday but wheat fell as the trade realized that even though the U.S. has seeded less winter wheat, global wheat stocks remain ample.

March canola closed at $485.50, up 50 cents or 0.10 percent.

Canola was supported by the weak loonie and the slightly stronger soy complex as weekly US soybean export sales hit 1.3 million tonnes, the largest volume in three weeks, with most of it going to China.

But prospects for a record large South American soyban crop limit gains.

Also commercial hedging limited gains as elevator companies offset risk from larger farmer deliveries.

Corn was little changed.

On Tuesday the USDA said winter wheat acreage was the second lowest since 1913. However, USDA also said Russia this year will overtake the United States as the world’s top wheat exporter for the first time in the agency’s records going back to 1960.

• Canadian pulse crop sales to India have been booming because of disappointing harvests in India. They have had additional help recently as the Indian rupee has appreciated against the Canadian dollar.

The rupee has gained close to six percent since the beginning of December, making Canadian lentil imports less costly.

Stat Communications reports lentil prices as follows:

No. 1 Laird are about 71 cents a pound.
No.1 Richlea 68.50 cents/lb.

No. 1 Eston 60 cents/lb.
No. 1 Red 57 cents/lb.
No. 1 French 45 cents/lb.

India’s winter crop now in the fields is stressed by lack of rain.

MUSTARD

Chuck Penner of Leftfield Commodity Research gave a bullish market outlook to the Saskatchewan Mustard Development Commission meeting at Crop Production Week in Saskatoon today.

He expects seeded area will recover this spring by about 38 percent to around 475,000 acres but with average yields that will not overwhelm the market, considering that the carry in will be small leading to a total supply only slightly more than the current crop year.

He thinks yellow and oriental varieties will see the biggest increases while browns will be steady to lower, reflecting the trend of prices this year.

Mustard prices are attractive this year because of smaller supply from the 2015 Canadian crop, solid demand and the weaker Canadian dollar.

The Canadian supply this year is similar to 2008-09 which also produced a small crop.

The difference is that in 2008-09 Russia and other Black Sea region exporters had an even more disastrous crop, leaving Canada as the only supplier to the world market.

This year, the Black Sea region had a good crop and it has captured much of the European brown mustard market. That is why brown mustard prices are trailing yellow and oriental.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 72 cents to US$31.20 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US69.57cents, down from 69.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.4373.

The modest rally in crude oil caused stock traders to look more favourably on energy company shares. This helped to spark a strong recovery in North American exchanges.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 165.62 points, or 1.36 percent, at 12,336.03.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 227.64 points, or 1.41 percent, to 16,379.05, the S&P 500 gained 31.56 points, or 1.67 percent, to 1,921.84 and the Nasdaq Composite ended up 88.94 points, or 1.97 percent, to 4,615.00.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2016 485.50 +0.50 +0.10%

Canola May 2016 492.70 +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Jul 2016 495.70 -0.70 -0.14%

Canola Nov 2016 492.10 -1.10 -0.22%

Canola Jan 2017 494.60 -1.40 -0.28%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 240.00 -3.00 -1.23%

Milling Wheat May 2016 243.00 -3.00 -1.22%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 247.00 -3.00 -1.20%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 327.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016 335.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 335.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2016 182.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 188.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 190.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2016 882.25 +2.25 +0.26%

Soybeans May 2016 883 +1.25 +0.14%

Soybeans Jul 2016 888.25 +0.75 +0.08%

Soybeans Aug 2016 889.75 +0.75 +0.08%

Soybeans Sep 2016 888.5 +0.75 +0.08%

Soybeans Nov 2016 890.25 +1 +0.11%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016 274.2 -1.3 -0.47%

Soybean Meal May 2016 277 -0.9 -0.32%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 279.8 -0.6 -0.21%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016 29.75 +0.21 +0.71%

Soybean Oil May 2016 29.96 +0.21 +0.71%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 30.21 +0.21 +0.70%

Corn Mar 2016 358 unch 0.00%

Corn May 2016 362.75 -0.25 -0.07%

Corn Jul 2016 368.25 -0.75 -0.20%

Corn Sep 2016 374 -1 -0.27%

Corn Dec 2016 382 -1 -0.26%

Oats Mar 2016 200.25 -4.75 -2.32%

Oats May 2016 200.5 -3.5 -1.72%

Oats Jul 2016 206.25 -2 -0.96%

Oats Sep 2016 211.75 -2 -0.94%

Oats Dec 2016 208.25 -2 -0.95%

Wheat Mar 2016 468.75 -9.25 -1.94%

Wheat May 2016 474.25 -8.5 -1.76%

Wheat Jul 2016 480.5 -8.5 -1.74%

Wheat Sep 2016 489.25 -7.75 -1.56%

Wheat Dec 2016 502.75 -7.25 -1.42%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 492.5 -7.5 -1.50%

Spring Wheat May 2016 499.5 -7.25 -1.43%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 507.5 -7 -1.36%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 518.25 -6.75 -1.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 533.5 -6.75 -1.25%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 468.5 -7.5 -1.58%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 478.75 -7.75 -1.59%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 488.25 -8 -1.61%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 501.5 -8 -1.57%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 520.75 -7.75 -1.47%

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