Canola futures fall on stronger loonie, good weather

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Published: June 3, 2016

Canola futures finished the week on a down note but over the week they posted modest gains.

Today’s loss was associated with a stronger Canadian dollar, commercial hedging of recently delivered crop and weaker soybeans.

July canola closed at $514.10 per tonne, down $6.50 or 1.25 percent.

New crop November closed at $520.40, down $5.90 or 1.12 percent.

On the week July rose only $1.30 or 0.25 percent and November climbed $2.10 or 0.4 percent.

The canola rally this week lagged behind soybeans, where the July contract jumped 4.2 percent and November rose 2.75 percent.

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File photo of a potato field in Alberta’s Lacombe County. (COrthner/iStock/Getty Images)

Alberta Crop Report: Rains in the south, dryness in the north

Rain fell onto the southern half of Alberta last week, while hot and dry conditions persisted in the northern half, according to the province’s crop report released on July 18.

Today, currency issues and profit taking dominated the crop market.

The U.S. dollar fell and the Canadian dollar rose after the U.S. Labor Department released the May job creation report, showing that the American economy created only 38,000 jobs, well short of the expectation for 162,000.

That lessened the expectation for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at its June 14-15 meeting.

The weaker U.S. dollar didn’t do much to lift U.S. crop futures.

Sold crop soybean futures fell on profit taking after hitting two year highs. November edged higher on a weekly export report that showed good new crop sales.

Wheat rose on concerns about heavy rain in western Europe damaging wheat crops.

France’s wheat crop was already deteriorating by Monday with the weekly report pegging soft wheat at 81 percent good to excellent, down two points from the week before and down eight points from last year at the same time.

Durum was 70 percent good to excellent, down eight points on the week and down three from last year.

Generally good weather across the Canadian Prairies is supporting crop growth. It should be mostly dry into early next week but Wednesday-Thursday could generate rain, with the largest accumulation in central Alberta.

Although the crush margins for Canadian canola are attractive, the week’s crush fell to 139,987 tonnes, down 22 percent from the week before. That was about 68 percent of industry capacity. The average for the year is 81.4 percent.

However, the export market bounced back from last week’s poor showing, with canola shipments totaling 211,800 tonnes, up from 78,600 tonnes the week before.

Exports are on track to hit the forecast of a record 10 million tonnes.

Australia Oilseeds Federation has forecast the canola harvest this year will hit 3.39m tonnes, up about 300,000 tonnes over last year.

Rain in May has helped the crop after a dry start earlier this year.

U.S. May job creation was less than forecast, lowering the expectation for a June U.S. interest rate increase. Reuters reported that all major Wall Street bank now expect the Fed will leave interest rates alone this month.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 89.79 points, or 0.64 percent, at 14,226.78. It gained 0.9 percent on the week, its fourth straight weekly advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 31.91 points, or 0.18 percent, to 17,806.65, the S&P 500 lost 6.15 points, or 0.29 percent, to 2,099.11 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 28.85 points, or 0.58 percent, to 4,942.52.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 55 cents to US$48.62 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.23 cents, up 0.78 cent from 76.45 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2948.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2016   514.10   -6.50   -1.25%

Canola Nov 2016   520.40   -5.90   -1.12%

Canola Jan 2017   523.40   -5.90   -1.11%

Canola Mar 2017   524.30   -6.30   -1.19%

Canola May 2017   525.30   -6.50   -1.22%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2016   243.00   +3.00   +1.25%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   240.00   +4.00   +1.69%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016   244.00   +3.00   +1.24%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2016   302.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   296.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016   298.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2016   171.50   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2016   171.50   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2016   171.50   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2016   1132   -12.25   -1.07%

Soybeans Aug 2016   1122   -8.75   -0.77%

Soybeans Sep 2016   1101.25   -1.25   -0.11%

Soybeans Nov 2016   1085.25   +3.5   +0.32%

Soybeans Jan 2017   1082.5   +4.75   +0.44%

Soybeans Mar 2017   1055.5   +8.75   +0.84%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2016   414.3   -4   -0.96%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016   397.7   -1.7   -0.43%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016   390   +1.2   +0.31%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2016   32.26   unch   0.00%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016   32.38   +0.01   +0.03%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016   32.51   +0.03   +0.09%

 

Corn Jul 2016   418.25   +3   +0.72%

Corn Sep 2016   419.75   +4   +0.96%

Corn Dec 2016   419.75   +3   +0.72%

Corn Mar 2017   426   +3.25   +0.77%

Corn May 2017   429.25   +3   +0.70%

 

Oats Jul 2016   188   -2.75   -1.44%

Oats Sep 2016   200.75   -2.75   -1.35%

Oats Dec 2016   213.25   -2   -0.93%

Oats Mar 2017   223.75   -0.5   -0.22%

Oats May 2017   223.75   -0.5   -0.22%

 

Wheat Jul 2016   497.25   +11.75   +2.42%

Wheat Sep 2016   506.75   +10.5   +2.12%

Wheat Dec 2016   523   +9   +1.75%

Wheat Mar 2017   540   +9   +1.69%

Wheat May 2017   551.25   +9   +1.66%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   539.5   +7.25   +1.36%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   547.75   +7   +1.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   560.5   +6.75   +1.22%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   572.5   +6.75   +1.19%

Spring Wheat May 2017   580.5   +6.75   +1.18%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   474   +9.5   +2.05%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   489.75   +9   +1.87%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   513   +8.25   +1.63%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   529.25   +8   +1.53%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   539.25   +8   +1.51%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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