Canola futures drop; large stocks, China dispute

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were weaker on Monday, as the Canadian dollar gained strength, while soyoil and soymeal lost ground on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The July canola contract fell C$4.20 at C$455.30 per tonne. The November contract dropped C$4.80 at C$468.60 per tonne.

The Canada/China dispute and large canola stocks weighed on values.

While dry conditions have persisted across much of Western Canada, there was some rainfall over the weekend. The forecast has called for rain in the next seven to 10 days, and should there good amounts of precipitation, that would improve crops and put pressure on canola bids.

Until that happens, dry conditions and frost have provided a weather premium. The slow pace of planting in the U.S. provided support as well.

There were 19,019 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 18,181 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,754 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 455.30 dn 4.20
Nov 468.60 dn 4.80
Jan 474.30 dn 4.30
Mar 478.90 dn 3.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly stronger on Monday, due to technical maneuvering, according to a report.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases its crop progress report later this afternoon. The markets have estimated soybean planting to be 38 to 42 per cent complete, up from the USDA’s previous week’s estimate of 29.6 per cent. However, the pace would still be behind the five-year average of 79 per cent.

European Union (EU) soybean imports were up eight per cent year-over-year so far at nearly 13.689 million tonnes. However EU imports of soymeal were down six per cent and its palm oil imports slipped one per cent.

The EU is expected to produce its smallest canola crop since 2006, according to Strategie Grains. With reduced production in France and Germany, the EU is projected to harvest 17.803 million tonnes in 2019.

CORN futures were weaker on Monday on some anticipation planting may have significantly improved.

The markets believe corn planting will have reached 68 to 72 per cent completed, which would be an improvement over the USDA’s previous week’s estimate of 58 per cent, and well-back from the five-year average of 97 per cent.

China’s corn production was revised downward 1.2 per cent by the country’s government to 254.012 million tonnes, as corn acres had been switched to soybeans.
The EU’s corn imports have jumped 38 per cent year-over-year to 22.302 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Monday, on concerns of lower yields in the U.S. due wet conditions and reduced production out of the Black Sea region because of dry conditions.

Spring wheat planting in the U.S. is expected to be 90 to 92 per cent complete, only slightly behind the five-year average of 96 per cent.

The EU is slightly behind its pace on soft wheat exports at 19.127 million tonnes.

Iraq has purchased almost 220,450 tonnes of U.S. wheat with plans to acquire up to 500,700 tonnes more.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 25 cents at US$53.25 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.24 cents, up from 73.93 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3470.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 19 455.30s -4.20 -0.91%

Canola Nov 19 468.60s -4.80 -1.01%

Canola Jan 20 474.30s -4.30 -0.90%

Canola Mar 20 478.90s -3.70 -0.77%

Canola May 20 483.50s -3.10 -0.64%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19 879-0s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybean Aug 19 885-6s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybean Sep 19 893-0s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybean Nov 19 906-2s +1-4 +0.17%

Soybean Jan 20 918-0s +2-0 +0.22%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19 320.5s -0.8 -0.25%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 322.0s -0.7 -0.22%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 323.8s -0.4 -0.12%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19 27.34s -0.25 -0.91%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 27.48s -0.24 -0.87%

Soybean Oil Sep 19 27.62s -0.23 -0.83%

 

Corn Jul 19 424-2s -2-6 -0.64%

Corn Sep 19 433-6s -2-2 -0.52%

Corn Dec 19 441-6s -2-0 -0.45%

Corn Mar 20 450-6s -0-6 -0.17%

Corn May 20 453-4s +0-6 +0.17%

 

Oats Jul 19 305-2s -9-2 -2.94%

Oats Sep 19 293-0s -5-4 -1.84%

Oats Dec 19 280-2s -5-4 -1.92%

Oats Mar 20 281-0s -5-0 -1.75%

Oats May 20 278-4s -5-0 -1.76%

 

Wheat Jul 19 519-6s +16-6 +3.33%

Wheat Sep 19 526-0s +16-2 +3.19%

Wheat Dec 19 538-6s +15-4 +2.96%

Wheat Mar 20 551-2s +15-0 +2.80%

Wheat May 20 556-2s +14-6 +2.72%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19 563-4s +11-4 +2.08%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 572-6s +11-6 +2.09%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 584-2s +11-6 +2.05%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 596-4s +12-0 +2.05%

Spring Wheat May 20 603-0s +13-6 +2.33%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 486-6s +13-6 +2.91%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 498-6s +14-0 +2.89%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 518-4s +13-2 +2.62%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 537-0s +12-4 +2.38%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 546-0s +11-4 +2.15%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 106.775s -1.700 -1.57%

Live Cattle Aug 19 102.800s -0.275 -0.27%

Live Cattle Oct 19 103.525s -0.375 -0.36%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 133.500s +0.375 +0.28%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 134.125s +0.050 +0.04%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 134.525s unch unch

 

Lean Hogs Jun 19 81.575s -0.150 -0.18%

Lean Hogs Jul 19 84.525s -1.400 -1.63%

Lean Hogs Aug 19 84.525s -2.100 -2.42%

 

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