Canola prices closed Friday slightly higher than they opened, limping out of an ugly week that saw continued damage to overall crop prices as the market continued to digest the unpleasant corn demand numbers from the March U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
Winnipeg canola was weak but not as weak as U.S. soybeans, which fell on Thursday and for much of Friday as news of more bird flu in Asia caused many to cut their estimates for soybean meal demand.
And bad economic data in a Friday report, with new jobs created in the U.S. less than half what analysts expected and beneath the most bearish prediction, knocked equity markets off record stock market levels hit mid-week.
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Canola prices were helped somewhat by the cold, late spring that is gripping the Prairies, increasing the chances of late seeding and therefore likely lower yields and more frost damage.
Canola prices still show the pronounced backwardation that has governed them since the Midwest drought, with May canola closing Friday at $611.20, July at $597.90 and November at $548.70. November to January is essentially flat, with March, May and June 2014 slightly inverted. This suggests canola buyers are still anxious about physical supplies all the way to mid-2014.
Meat was the biggest loser Friday, with both beef and pork seeing significant losses as investors moved into defensive commodities such as precious metals.
Crop market weakness continued throughout the week, with bearishness taking control of many analysts’ minds. Oats were hammered down with limit losses along with big losses in corn early in the week as the knock-on effects of the USDA report continued on the other side of the long Easter weekend.
Generally, analysts think signs of weakening demand remove considerable anxiety about old crop supplies of corn, and that means less demand for wheat as a substitute.
Oats’ drag-down was partly a product of its tight linkage to corn prices, but mostly due to investment funds liquidating long positions. With funds controlling about 25 percent of open interest when the USDA report was released, any shock to corn was bound to release a flood of fund sell orders.
Across markets there is an unusual mix of bullish and bearish sentiment, with the two camps moving in opposite directions. Bears see all the signs of an incipient recession, while bulls see bounding economic and stock market gains, at least for the U.S.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 98.13 cents US, down from 98.63 on Thursday. The U.S. buck was 1.0191.
Crude oil in New York fell 56 cents to $92.70 per barrel.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada in dollars per tonne.
Canola May 13 611.2 +0.40 +0.07%
Canola Jul 13 597.9 +0.70 +0.12%
Canola Nov 13 548.7 -0.40 -0.07%
Canola Jan 14 549.3 -0.20 -0.04%
Milling Wheat May 13 292 unch unch
Milling Wheat Jul 13 294 unch unch
Milling Wheat Oct 13 294 unch unch
Milling Wheat Dec 13 294 unch unch
Durum Wheat May 13 311 unch unch
Durum Wheat Jul 13 314 unch unch
Durum Wheat Oct 13 299.3 unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 13 301 unch unch
Barley May 13 243.5 unch unch
Barley Jul 13 244 unch unch
Barley Oct 13 244 unch unch
Barley Dec 13 244 unch unch
U.S. crops in cents per bushel
Chicago
Soybeans (P) May 13 1361.75 -10-0 -0.73%
Soybeans (P) Jul 13 1343.75 -9-2 -0.68%
Soybeans (P) Aug 13 1317.25 -4-4 -0.34%
Soybeans (P) Sep 13 1265 -3-0 -0.24%
Soybeans (P) Nov 13 1228 -5-0 -0.41%
Soybeans (P) Jan 14 1234 -4-6 -0.38%
Corn (P) May 13 629 -0-2 -0.04%
Corn (P) Jul 13 617.75 -0-2 -0.04%
Corn (P) Sep 13 552 -3-0 -0.54%
Corn (P) Dec 13 535 -5-0 -0.93%
Corn (P) Mar 14 546 -4-4 -0.82%
Oats (P) May 13 359.5 +0-4 +0.14%
Oats (P) Jul 13 352 +1-4 +0.43%
Oats (P) Sep 13 349.25 +2-4 +0.72%
Oats (P) Dec 13 345 +3-4 +1.02%
Oats (P) Mar 14 343.75 -6-2 -1.79%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 13 787.5 +1-0 +0.13%
Spring Wheat Jul 13 786.5 +2-0 +0.25%
Spring Wheat Sep 13 787 +4-0 +0.51%
Spring Wheat Dec 13 797.5 +3-2 +0.41%
Spring Wheat Mar 14 810.75 +2-4 +0.31%
