Soybean meal fell Monday, taking soybean futures lower and pulling canola down too, but not as badly.
“It’s kind of been up one day, down the next. That’s been the pattern,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“I don’t think it necessarily means it’s the end of the meal market.”
Soybean meal futures have been an incredible market in recent weeks, surging well beyond almost all traders’ expectations.
While world vegetable oil crop stocks are high and the world is glutted with vegetable oil, protein meal in North America is extremely tight on old crop supplies.
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Soybean and soybean component markets have been surprised at how slowly U.S. crushers have been to catch up with bountiful new crop supplies.
But the slow flow of new crop U.S. soybeans to market has surprised virtually everyone, with October crushing about six or seven percent below expectations.
That’s left commercial people short the soybean meal market scrambling to find supplies to fulfill obligations, leading to a massive rally in soybean meal and soybeans.
Whether the recent stumbling of meal prices at present lofty levels represents the end of the rally remains to be seen. Ball said one thing is for sure: at some point soon prices will fall as the tight old crop situation finally disappears under a deluge of new crop supplies.
“It’s just a question of how back they’ll fall,” said Ball.
Canola was relatively strong Monday, falling less than soybeans and half as much as soybean meal, reflecting its oily price foundation.
That same foundation held canola back from partaking in much of the recent soybean rally.
Despite the hefty sell-off for soybeans and soybean meal, and the slight fall in corn prices, wheat contracts rose slightly Monday.
Better weather in Brazil also clouded soybean markets, with the recent dryness being alleviated in some areas.
And U.S. dollar strength helped discourage purchases by those operating in non-U.S. currency.
However, traders said U.S. wheat exports need to increase in order to keep wheat firm.
American stock markets took a breather from the recent rally, floating near their all-time highs on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 448.10 -4.80 -1.06%
Canola Jan 2015 432.90 -6.10 -1.39%
Canola May 2015 433.40 -7.40 -1.68%
Canola Jul 2015 434.30 -7.30 -1.65%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 225.00 +1.00 +0.45%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 231.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2015 235.00 +2.00 +0.86%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 1028.75 -17.75 -1.70%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1029.75 -19.5 -1.86%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1033.75 -19.5 -1.85%
Soybeans May 2015 1039 -19 -1.80%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1043 -19.75 -1.86%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1043.5 -19.25 -1.81%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 372.7 -16.3 -4.19%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 356.4 -10.3 -2.81%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 340.8 -5.4 -1.56%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 34.03 -0.77 -2.21%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 34.25 -0.77 -2.20%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 34.47 -0.77 -2.19%
Corn Dec 2014 373.5 -3.25 -0.86%
Corn Mar 2015 386 -3.25 -0.83%
Corn May 2015 394.75 -3.25 -0.82%
Corn Jul 2015 401 -3.25 -0.80%
Corn Sep 2015 406.75 -3.5 -0.85%
Oats Dec 2014 347.25 +11 +3.27%
Oats Mar 2015 341 +12 +3.65%
Oats May 2015 335 +9 +2.76%
Oats Jul 2015 327.5 +8.25 +2.58%
Oats Sep 2015 329 +6.75 +2.09%
Wheat Dec 2014 538.25 +5.75 +1.08%
Wheat Mar 2015 550.75 +5 +0.92%
Wheat May 2015 557.25 +4 +0.72%
Wheat Jul 2015 563.25 +3 +0.54%
Wheat Sep 2015 573.5 +3 +0.53%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 577 +2.75 +0.48%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 587.5 +3 +0.51%
Spring Wheat May 2015 596.25 +3.25 +0.55%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 605.5 +3.25 +0.54%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 614.25 +4 +0.66%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 597.5 +3.75 +0.63%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 602 +3 +0.50%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 603.75 +2.25 +0.37%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 599.25 +1.5 +0.25%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 609 +1.5 +0.25%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.76 at US$78.78 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.34 cents, down from 88.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1320.
