Canola falls, pressured by weaker soybeans, economic uncertainty

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Published: June 13, 2012

Canola fell Wednesday, pressured by falling soybeans.

July canola closed at $605.70, down $1.70.

November closed at $567.70, down $4.90, as commercial new crop hedge selling added pressure.

Concerns about wet weather in Western Canada limited the fall.

ICE Futures Canada will move back its daily close of trading and settlement time to 2 p.m. Central time from 1:15 p.m., falling in line with other North American futures exchanges, ICE said on Wednesday. The change takes effect on Monday, June 25.

It affects futures and options for ICE Canada’s canola contract, as well as its thinly traded contracts for barley, durum wheat, milling wheat and western barley, according to a notice posted on the exchange’s website.

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Alberta crop conditions improve: report

Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.

The opening of trading will remain 7 p.m.

• Soybeans and corn are down on new forecasts that call for more rain in the Midwest.

Grains and commodities in general are also under pressure from global economic woes, including the debt crisis in Europe and slowing growth in China.

• Wheat prices are up Wednesday after Australia lowered its estimate of its wheat crop.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences pegged the crop just seeded at 24.1 million tonnes, down from 29.5 million last year and down from the June USDA forecast of 26 million.

Here is what ABARES had to say:

“The area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to around 13.4 million hectares. Despite the expected fall, this forecast is still significantly above the five-year average to 2010–11.

“Total wheat production is forecast to decline by 18 per cent to around 24.1 million tonnes, reflecting the combined effect of a lower planted area and an assumed fall in yields.

“The area planted to barley in 2012–13 is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to around 3.9 million hectares. Total barley production is forecast to fall by 15 per cent to around 7.3 million tonnes.

“The area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 23 per cent in 2012–13 to around 2.1 million hectares. Most of this forecast increase is expected to be in New South Wales and Western Australia and reflects growers’ response to relatively favourable canola prices.

“Canola production is forecast to increase by four percent (of 120,000 tonnes) to around 2.9 million tonnes, which reflects the forecast increase in planted area more than offsetting an assumed fall in yields.”

• Greek voters again go to the polls this coming weekend. After the election last month no party had enough seats to form a majority and there was not enough common ground among parties to form a minority coalition government so a second election is being held.

The conservative party that wants to stick to the austerity policy needed to retain the EU bailout program and stay in the euro zone is running neck and neck with a leftist party that rejects the austerity program. If the leftists win they will try to renegotiate the bailout package but many analysts believe the country would be forced to leave the euro and return to its own currency, further adding to the financial and economic turmoil.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 12  $605.70, down $1.70       -0.28%

Canola Nov 12  $567.70, down $4.90       -0.86%

Canola Jan 13       $572.00, down $5.00       -0.87%

Canola Mar 13       $575.80, down $5.20       -0.90%

The best basis the previous day in the par region was $14 above the July contract, according to ICE Futures Canada.

The 14-day relative strength index for the July contract was 45.

Western Barley Jul 12  $237.00, unchanged

Western Barley Oct 12  $210.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 12  $252.70, unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12  $260.00, unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13       269.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12  $275.50, unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12  $280.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13       286.60, unchanged

Barley Oct 12  $182.30, unchanged

Barley Dec 12  $185.00, unchanged

Barley Mar 13       188.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Jul 12  $14.0825, down 26.75       -1.86%

Soybeans (P) Aug 12  $13.7775, down 23.5       -1.68%

Soybeans (P) Sep 12  $13.4325, down 20.75       -1.52%

Soybeans (P) Nov 12  $13.1975, down 17.25       -1.29%

Corn (P) Jul 12  $5.925, up 8-4       +1.46%

Corn (P) Sep 12  $5.15, down 11-4       -2.18%

Corn (P) Dec 12  $5.105, down 12.0       -2.30%

Oats (P) Jul 12  $3.0575, up 10.0       +3.38%

Oats (P) Sep 12  $2.99, up 8.75       +3.01%

Oats (P) Dec 12  $2.80, up 4.0       +1.45%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 12  $7.735, up 9.25 cents       +1.21%

Spring Wheat Sep 12  $7.45, down 1.5       -0.20%

Spring Wheat Dec 12  $7.5225, down 0.25       -0.03%

Nearby light crude oil in New York fell 70 cents to $82.62 per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the Canadian dollar was 97.37 cents US, little changed from 97.39 the day before.

The U.S. dollar was at $1.0270

In early tallies:

Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index was almost unchanged, rising 0.57 points to 11,497.87

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 78.63 points, or 0.63 percent, at 12,495.17.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 9.38 points, or 0.71 percent, at 1,314.80.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 24.46 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,818.61.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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