Canola falls back below $500, but posts $1.20 gain on week despite strong yields

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Published: September 13, 2013

Profit taking pressured oilseeds lower Friday after the run up Thursday triggered by the bullish soybean numbers in the USDA report.

Canola also continued under pressure from the advancing harvest and reports of strong yields.

A mostly dry weekend is expected across the Prairies with the warm sun continuing Monday and Tuesday but rain is forecast for Wednesday.

The U.S. Midwest is expecting cooler weather for the next few days with some showers, but the relief is not expected to improve soybean yields, only reduce the deterioration.

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Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.

Thursday’s USDA report was bearish for corn and wheat with the department increasing its forecast for U.S. average corn yield, production and U.S. year end stocks and its outlook for world wheat production and ending stocks.

November canola today closed at499.40, down $4.60.

For the week, the November contract managed a gain of $1.20 per tonne, an impressive feat given the outlook for a record canola crop.

The gains Thursday sparked increased farmer deliveries, but steady commercial demand limited the downward pressure.

Canola is attractively priced compared to high flying soybeans and that is stimulating demand.

Canada’s canola crushing sector is also pumping up after operating well under capacity in August.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 114,948 tonnes of canola in the week ending Sept. 11, up almost 29 percent from the week before, representing a capacity use of about 67 percent.

So far this crop year, the crush totals 514,715 tonnes, well behind the pace last year when almost 716,000 tonnes had been crushed.

 

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

 

Canola Nov 2013       499.40       -4.60       -0.91%

Canola Jan 2014       507.40       -4.00       -0.78%

Canola Mar 2014       514.20       -3.60       -0.70%

Canola May 2014       520.00       -2.60       -0.50%

Canola Jul 2014       524.60       -1.60       -0.30%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2013       235.00       -3.00       -1.26%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013       240.00       -2.00       -0.83%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014       245.00       -3.00       -1.21%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2013       259.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013       267.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014       273.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2013       164.60       -14.40       -8.04%

Barley Dec 2013       169.60       -14.40       -7.83%

Barley Mar 2014       169.60       -14.40       -7.83%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2013       1381.5       -14.5       -1.04%

Soybeans Jan 2014       1379.75       -13.75       -0.99%

Soybeans Mar 2014       1347.25       -18       -1.32%

Soybeans May 2014       1315       -16.75       -1.26%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1307       -15.5       -1.17%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1279       -19       -1.46%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 2013       444.6       -4.6       -1.02%

Soybean Meal Dec 2013       442.8       -4.4       -0.98%

Soybean Meal Jan 2014       440.2       -3.5       -0.79%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 2013       42.34       -0.44       -1.03%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013       42.56       -0.47       -1.09%

Soybean Oil Jan 2014       42.77       -0.45       -1.04%

 

Corn Dec 2013       459       -7.25       -1.55%

Corn Mar 2014       471.5       -7       -1.46%

Corn May 2014       479.5       -7.25       -1.49%

Corn Jul 2014       486.25       -7.5       -1.52%

Corn Sep 2014       490.75       -7.5       -1.51%

 

Oats Dec 2013       312.25       -6       -1.89%

Oats Mar 2014       315.25       -6       -1.87%

Oats May 2014       317       -7.25       -2.24%

Oats Jul 2014       310.25       -5       -1.59%

Oats Sep 2014       320.75       +10.5       +3.38%

 

Wheat Dec 2013       641.5       -11.5       -1.76%

Wheat Mar 2014       652.25       -12       -1.81%

Wheat May 2014       657.5       -13.25       -1.98%

Wheat Jul 2014       656.5       -11.25       -1.68%

Wheat Sep 2014       662.75       -10.75       -1.60%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2013       705.75       -9       -1.26%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       718       -7       -0.97%

Spring Wheat May 2014       726.25       -6.5       -0.89%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       733.25       -7.25       -0.98%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       737.25       -7.25       -0.97%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013       692       -9.75       -1.39%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       698.75       -9.25       -1.31%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014       701.75       -10       -1.40%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014       691.25       -11.25       -1.60%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014       702.25       -11.75       -1.65%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 39 cents at $108.21 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 96.70 cents US, down from 96.90 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0341 Cdn.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s index of American consumer sentiment fell 5.3 points to 76.8 in early September, the lowest since April. Economists pointed to worries over high interest rates and a possible U.S. military strike on Syria, Reuters reported.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 percent last month but that we a little less than what analysts expected.

Market participants were nervous ahead of next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve when the bank will decide whether to taper its stimulus program.

In early unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 22.35 points, or 0.18 percent, at 12,723.40.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.26 points, or 0.49 percent, closing at 15,375.90.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 4.56 points, or 0.27 percent, at 1,687.98.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 6.22 points, or 0.17 percent, at 3,722.18.

For the week, the TSX declined 0.76 percent, the Dow rose three percent, the S&P rose two percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.7 percent.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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