Canola on Tuesday was caught in the downdraft of soybean’s decline, triggered when USDA announced cancellations of sales of U.S. soy to China and to an unknown destination.
One cancelation was for 300,000 tonnes of shipments to China and another 120,000 tonnes sold to unknown destinations. U.S. soybean exports have been running well ahead of expectations so far this crop year.
January soybeans fell more than two percent but January canola fell only about one percent.
January canola closed at $585.50, down $6.60.
• Another factor weighing on canola was a forecast by Oil World that European Union rapeseed production could rise to 20.50 million tonnes from 19.07 million due to expanded acreage and barring major winter freeze problems.
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Seeded area this fall expanded to 16.09 million acres from 15.20 million last year, despite problems with sowings in Britain and France, Oil World forecast.
There is a huge range of estimates for Argentina soybean crop, from 45 to 55 million tonnes, because of its problems of excess moisture.
If the rain stops it would be able to stage a major comeback from last year’s drought reduced crop of about 40.5 million tonnes, but if rain continues then another disaster is on the make.
Oil World today trimmed its forecasts to 53 million tonnes from 54 million last month. The government’s forecast is 55 million but private local forecasts have the crop as low as 47 million and even 45 million if rain continues.
Oil World retained its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop at 81 million tonnes, up from 66.8 million tonnes last crop year.
• Oil World’s forecast on EU production was backed up by Copa-Cogeca, a Brussels-based farm lobby.
It said production could rise to 20.96 million tonnes, up 8.8 percent from last crop year, with gains in Germany and Poland more than making up for declines in France and Britain.
• And there will be more immediate competition from Australia where its oilseed federation this week increased its estimate of the crop being harvested to 3.13 million, up from 2.7 million estimated in November and only slightly less than last year’s crop.
• Wheat edged higher on short covering after falling for several days. Winter storms over the next couple of weeks are expected to deliver snow to the dry hard red winter wheat region.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jan 13 $585.50, down $6.60 -1.11%
Canola Mar 13 $582.30, down $6.90 -1.17%
Canola May 13 $580.20, down $7.30 -1.24%
Canola Jul 13 $577.20, down $6.60 -1.13%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $290.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat May 13 $293.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat Jul 13 $295.50, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $312.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat May 13 $316.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat Jul 13 $319.40, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $248.00, unchanged
Barley May 13 $249.00, unchanged
Barley Jul 13 $249.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $14.66, down 30.25 cents -2.02%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $14.605, 27.75 -1.86%
Soybeans (P) May 13 $14.445, down 22.75 -1.55%
Soybeans (P) Jul 13 $14.325, down 19.25 -1.33%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $7.20, down 4.0 -0.55%
Corn (P) May 13 $7.2375, down 3.75 -0.52%
Corn (P) Jul 13 $7.2175, down 3.25 -0.45%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.805, down 8.75 -2.25%
Oats (P) May 13 $3.8625, down 8.5 -2.15%
Oats (P) Jul 13 $3.8675, down 8.0 -2.03%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.015, up 5.25 +0.59%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.1025, up 4.0 +0.44%
Spring Wheat Jul 13 $9.1625, up 1.0 +0.11%
Spring Wheat Sep 13 $9.1425, down 0.25 -0.03%
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0148 US, down from $1.0162 the day before.
The U.S. buck was 98.54 cents Cdn.
Nearby crude oil in New York rose 73 cents to $87.93 per barrel.
In the U.S. budget negotiations, both president Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner have made concessions that have raised hope that the fiscal cliff can be avoided.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 52.99 points, or 0.43 percent, at 12,334.34.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 108.19 points, or 0.82 percent, to 13,343.58.
The S&P 500 gained 14.40 points, or 1.01 percent, to 1,444.76.
The Nasdaq Composite added 41.24 points, or 1.37 percent, to 3,051.85.
