By D’Arce McMillan
Markets editor
Twitter @ darcemcmillan
After a volatile trading day when canola futures were up and down, the market closed with the oilseed hanging on to a gain.
November closed at $451.60, up $7.20 and most active January was $434.60, up $3.10. It was the fourth straight day of gains
Soy oil closed a little higher, providing support to canola but most U.S. crop futures closed lower as traders took profits on the recent rally.
Overnight, palm oil had risen 0.8 percent on the momentum from Wednesday’s gains in soy oil and on thoughts that dry weather earlier this year would start to be seen in palm yields in the coming months.
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Soy meal, the engine of this recent crop price rally, fell 4.4 percent today, as profits were taken following Wednesday’s spectacular six percent increase.
Soy meal gained about 30 percent in October As the end of the month approaches funds are readjusting their portfolios.
Soybeans, corn and wheat were all a little lower today on profit taking.
The canola best basis in the par region, reported by ICE Futures Canada, has widened out again. It was reported at -$18.90 on the November contract.
The ICE Futures report said the price for No. 1 canola trackside in Vancouver was $482.60, or +$48 over the January contract. My understanding of the track price is that generally it is reflective of the international price, but it can also be inflated by a specific situation such as a terminal needing a few carloads of grain to fulfill a shipment. An inflated price might be paid just to get the grain rather than, say, pay extra demurrage.
Market reports say canola futures have enjoyed some support from lack of producer deliveries. While that deliveries might in some situations be less than what exporters or domestic crushers want, overall, producer deliveries so far this crop year are similar to 2011 and 2012. At 3.796 million tonnes, the deliveries however are up more than a million tonnes from last year at this time.
Producer deliveries to primary and processing elevators of all major grains are running ahead of recent yeas. The Canadian Grain Commission says that to Oct. 19 farmers had delivered 11.74 million tonnes. In 2013 the total at this time was 10.18 million tonnes, in 2012 it was 10.96 million and in 2011 it was 10.18 million.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports weekly export sales on Thursday:Wheat – 444,900 tonnes for 2014-15, above trade estimates for 300,000 to 375,000 tonnes. Corn – 489,800 tonnes, below expectations for 700,000 to 900,000 tonnes.
Soybeans – 1.326 million tonnes, in line with market forecasts.
Soy meal – 147,800 tonnes, below the forecast range of 150,000 to 300,000 tonnes.
Australia’s Farm Weekly reports that modeling used by the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre suggests that the country’s wheat crop could fall to 22 million tonnes. The International Grains Council this week trimmed its outlook for Australia to 24 million tonnes. USDA’s forecast is 25 million tonnes.
Crop conditions in Australia’s New South Wales are deteriorating due to hot, dry weather, says a story by ABC, the Australian broadcaster. NSW is the second biggest wheat producing state in Australia after Western Australia.
The Australia government forecaster in September pegged the NSW wheat crop at just over seven million tonnes, up six percent from the year before, but private forecasters now see the crop as significantly less than last year. There are also dry weather problems in South Australia.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.08 at US$81.12 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US89.34 cents, down from 89.80 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1193.
Weakness in the gold sector drove the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index down 68.88 points, or 0.47 percent, to close at 14,458.69.
Strong corporate quarterly profit reports drove American stock indexes higher. Support also came from a report showing U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, beating expectations.
Dow Jones industrial average rose 221.11 points, or 1.3 percent, to 17,195.42, the S&P 500 gained 12.35 points, or 0.62 percent, to 1,994.65 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.91 points, or 0.37 percent, to 4,566.14.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 451.60 +7.20 +1.62%
Canola Jan 2015 434.60 +3.10 +0.72%
Canola Mar 2015 433.20 +1.70 +0.39%
Canola May 2015 434.40 +0.80 +0.18%
Canola Jul 2015 434.90 +0.50 +0.12%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 226.00 -1.00 -0.44%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 232.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2015 236.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 143.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 1024.25 -18.75 -1.80%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1029.75 -19.25 -1.84%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1036 -20 -1.89%
Soybeans May 2015 1042.5 -20.25 -1.91%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1048.25 -21 -1.96%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1049 -18.75 -1.76%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 380 -17.2 -4.33%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 361.1 -13.5 -3.60%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 342.5 -9.7 -2.75%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 34.31 +0.13 +0.38%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 34.54 +0.13 +0.38%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 34.78 +0.1 +0.29%
Corn Dec 2014 374 -1.25 -0.33%
Corn Mar 2015 387 -1.5 -0.39%
Corn May 2015 395.75 -1.25 -0.31%
Corn Jul 2015 402.5 -1 -0.25%
Corn Sep 2015 408.5 -0.75 -0.18%
Oats Dec 2014 338.5 -12 -3.42%
Oats Mar 2015 331.25 -10.25 -3.00%
Oats May 2015 326 -8.5 -2.54%
Oats Jul 2015 318.75 -8.5 -2.60%
Oats Sep 2015 321.25 -9.25 -2.80%
Wheat Dec 2014 536 -2.25 -0.42%
Wheat Mar 2015 549 -2 -0.36%
Wheat May 2015 557 -1 -0.18%
Wheat Jul 2015 564.75 -1 -0.18%
Wheat Sep 2015 575.25 -0.75 -0.13%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 577.75 -4.75 -0.82%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 588.75 -3.75 -0.63%
Spring Wheat May 2015 597.5 -3.75 -0.62%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 607.25 -3.25 -0.53%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 615.5 -3 -0.49%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 602 -4.5 -0.74%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 607.25 -4 -0.65%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 609.25 -3.25 -0.53%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 603.75 -2.5 -0.41%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 613 -2.75 -0.45%
