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Canola closed a little higher Wednesay, supported by a weaker loonie and bargain buying in palm and soybean oil.
Gains were limited by generally good growing weather in Western Canada.
• After the close Agriculture Canada came out with updated supply and demand forecasts. The July report takes into account the June Statistics Canada seeded acreage report. Given the larger canola seeded area and an average yield forecast, Ag Canada sees production of 14.6 million tonnes of canola, up from 14.1 million in the June report.
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Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
The extra production is expected to be easily consumed by increased domestic and export demand and the carry out projection was unchaged at a tight 400,000 tonnes. The price projection was also unchanged at $560-$600 per tonne basis track Vancouver. The price for the old crop is $650-$670.
The average of 15 private analyst projections as poll by Reuters for the 2013-14 canola crop is 15 million tonnes.
• The weather forecasts in the U.S. keep shifting. Today the longer term forecast had less heat and more moisture than the forecast yesterday and that pressured corn and soybeans lower. Soybeans did not fall as much as corn, given extremely tight old crop stocks.
Corn is starting to enter its pollination stage critical for yield development and weather factors can have important impacts.
• U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke gave his mid year update to Congress today, saying that the bank’s stimulative program is not on a “preset course” and that job growth and other economic indicators will determine whether it reduces its $85 billion a month bond buying program. As it looks now, he said, he expects that the central bank will start to scale back the bond buying program, however if things don’t get better or get worse, the Fed could maintain its program or increase it.
Traders appeared to favour the comments. Stock markets rose slightly.
• After falling for several days on weak exports and expectations for higher production, Malaysian palm oil rose today on bargain buying.
• U.S. wheat futures fell, but China was believed to be in the market for 500,000 tonnes of Australian wheat. A Reuters story today said damage to the Chinese wheat crop from rain at harvest and frost earlier in the season might be worse than expected. Reuters quoted consultancy Shanghai JC Intelligence as saying as much as 15-20 million tonnes would be downgraded to feed.
The story said China might import 10 million tonnes or more making it the world’s largest importer. USDA’s latest forecast is for China to import 8.5 million tonnes.
• Argentina’s government forecast its wheat crop to climb to 12 million tonnes based on seeded area of four million hectares. That would be up from nine million tonnes last year when weather damaged the crop.
• Private forecaster Lanworth cut its forecast for global and U.S. corn and soy production.
It trimmed its U.S. corn forecast to 13.65 billion bushels from 13.9 previously. It pegged U.S. soybeans at 3.315 million bu from 3.36 billion.
USDA’s forecast for corn is 13.95 billion bu. and for soybeans is 3.42 billion.
Lanworth put global corn production at 956 million tonnes, down from 961 million previously. Soybean production was pegged at 283 million tonnes, down one millin tonnes.
USDA’s forecast for corn is 959.84 million tonnes and for soybeans is 285.89 million tonnes.
Lanworth’s global wheat production forecast climbed to 694 million tonnes, up from 692 million. USDA’s outlook is 697.8 million.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 527.40 +1.30 +0.25%
Canola Jan 2014 533.30 +1.20 +0.23%
Canola Mar 2014 537.10 unch 0.00%
Canola May 2014 536.30 +0.20 +0.04%
Canola Jul 2014 535.50 +0.40 +0.07%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 267.00 -1.00 -0.37%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 271.00 -1.00 -0.37%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 278.00 -1.00 -0.36%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 302.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 307.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 312.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1477.5 +2.25 +0.15%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1329.25 -6.25 -0.47%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1283.5 -2.75 -0.21%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1288.5 -2.75 -0.21%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1285.25 -2.5 -0.19%
Soybeans May 2014 1278.75 -2.25 -0.18%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 469.1 +2.3 +0.49%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 423.5 -1.5 -0.35%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 389.4 -2 -0.51%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 45.79 +0.08 +0.18%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 45.77 +0.09 +0.20%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 45.58 +0.18 +0.40%
Corn Sep 2013 538.5 -6.75 -1.24%
Corn Dec 2013 502 -8.75 -1.71%
Corn Mar 2014 514.25 -8.75 -1.67%
Corn May 2014 521.75 -9 -1.70%
Corn Jul 2014 528 -9 -1.68%
Oats Sep 2013 353.25 -1 -0.28%
Oats Dec 2013 340.75 -2.5 -0.73%
Oats Mar 2014 346 -3.25 -0.93%
Oats May 2014 346.25 -3.5 -1.00%
Oats Jul 2014 355.75 -3.5 -0.97%
Wheat Sep 2013 665 -4.5 -0.67%
Wheat Dec 2013 677.75 -4.75 -0.70%
Wheat Mar 2014 690.5 -4 -0.58%
Wheat May 2014 698 -3.25 -0.46%
Wheat Jul 2014 695.25 -5.25 -0.75%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 755.25 -3.75 -0.49%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 767.25 -3.5 -0.45%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 780.25 -3.75 -0.48%
Spring Wheat May 2014 788 -2.25 -0.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 792.25 -3.25 -0.41%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 702.75 -1 -0.14%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 719 -1.25 -0.17%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 731.25 -1.25 -0.17%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 737.25 -2.25 -0.30%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 732.5 -4.75 -0.64%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 48 cents at $106.48 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.92 cents US, down from 96.26 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0425 Cdn.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 51.88 points, or 0.41 percent, at 12,568.77.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 18.67 points, or 0.12 percent, to end unofficially at 15,470.52.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 4.65 points, or 0.27 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,680.91.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 11.50 points, or 0.32 percent, to close unofficially at 3,610.00
