Canola down, facing numerous issues

WINNIPEG – ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker at the end of trading on Monday.

Much of the trade for the day pertained to the spread, according to a Winnipeg-based trader. He commented the technical bias has shifted to the downside and spec funds remained short.

The ongoing Canada/China dispute could hurt any much needed spillover for canola from trade deal between the United States and China.

However, that deal may not be ready to sign by the end of April, as sometime in May is becoming more likely. But, US/China trade officials are negotiating by teleconferencing this week.

Canadian and Chinese officials had also been teleconferencing, according to the federal government. But, there have been no recent updates and no further word of a high-level delegation going to China, nor any update on Canada’s scientific delegation that is also to go to China.

There is growing speculation that Canadian farmers will be switching from planting canola to wheat this spring, which would provide support for canola.

As would the European rapeseed crop this year, if production decreases, as farmers there are facing drought and insect damage.

The Canadian dollar was up by midafternoon on Monday, at 75.11 U.S. cents, which also weighed on values.

About 15,400 contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when approximately 23,000 contracts changed hands.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were slightly weaker on Monday.

Traders spent the day squaring their positions ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s release of its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday. The markets are not expecting any major surprises, but are interested in the USDA’s data on old crop amounts and the South American harvest.

African Swine Fever is said to have wiped out about a third of China’s hog population. African Swine Fever is almost always fatal in hogs, but harmless to humans. The loss of so many hogs could sharply reduce China’s global demand for soybeans and oilseeds by approximately 22 million tonnes, according to a report.

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have been continuing by teleconference. The U.S. has been demanding to maintain some tariffs on Chinese imports and the right to re-impose other tariffs should China fail to comply with the agreement. China is demanding the agreement be equal to both countries.

CORN futures were weaker on Monday.

More precipitation is forecast this week for the U.S. Midwest and the Northern Plains. Such will add to flood issues that have caused billions of dollars in damages. It is now very doubtful U.S. farmers will plant the 92.8 million acres of corn projected by the USDA, as farmers will switch to soybeans.

In the first week of reporting this year’s corn planting, the USDA said about two per cent of the U.S. crop is now in the ground.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with Minneapolis and Kansas City May wheat up and Chicago wheat down.

Wheat export inspections increased to 19.8 million bushels, up by 18.5 per cent from the previous report. The Philippines was the largest customer, with purchases of 3.8 million bushels.

European Union soft wheat exports topped 551 million bushels so far in the 2018-2019 crop year. That is four per cent lower year-over-year, Barley exports, at 160.8 million bushels, were down 23 per cent year-over–year.

SovEcon has projected Russian wheat exports for April to reach 69.8 million bushels, an improvement over March exports.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.32 at US$64.40 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.05 cents, down from 74.70 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3325.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola May 19 454.50s -2.90 -0.63%

Canola Jul 19 462.60s -3.00 -0.64%

Canola Nov 19 475.80s -3.00 -0.63%

Canola Jan 20 482.20s -3.00 -0.62%

Canola Mar 20 487.00s -3.00 -0.61%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean May 19 898-6s -0-2 -0.03%

Soybean Jul 19 911-6s -0-2 -0.03%

Soybean Aug 19 917-2s -0-4 -0.05%

Soybean Sep 19 922-0s -1-0 -0.11%

Soybean Nov 19 932-2s -0-4 -0.05%

 

Soybean Meal May 19 309.2s +1.2 +0.39%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 312.9s +1.2 +0.38%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 314.6s +1.2 +0.38%

 

Soybean Oil May 19 28.88s -0.27 -0.93%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 29.20s -0.28 -0.95%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 29.36s -0.26 -0.88%

 

Corn May 19 360-0s -2-4 -0.69%

Corn Jul 19 368-4s -2-4 -0.67%

Corn Sep 19 377-2s -2-2 -0.59%

Corn Dec 19 389-0s -1-0 -0.26%

Corn Mar 20 402-6s -0-2 -0.06%

 

Oats May 19 287-4s unch unch

Oats Jul 19 278-4s +0-6 +0.27%

Oats Sep 19 269-2s +1-0 +0.37%

Oats Dec 19 260-2s +1-0 +0.39%

Oats Mar 20 255-2s -0-2 -0.10%

 

Wheat May 19 465-2s -2-4 -0.53%

Wheat Jul 19 468-6s -1-0 -0.21%

Wheat Sep 19 477-2s unch unch

Wheat Dec 19 492-4s +0-4 +0.10%

Wheat Mar 20 506-0s +0-2 +0.05%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 19 524-0s +1-4 +0.29%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 531-6s unch unch

Spring Wheat Sep 19 541-6s -0-4 -0.09%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 556-4s -0-6 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 571-2s -0-6 -0.13%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 19 431-4s +0-2 +0.06%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 439-0s +1-0 +0.23%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 450-0s +1-0 +0.22%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 471-4s +1-4 +0.32%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 490-0s +1-4 +0.31%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Apr 19 125.800s -0.250 -0.20%

Live Cattle Jun 19 120.575s +0.225 +0.19%

Live Cattle Aug 19 117.725s +0.350 +0.30%

 

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 146.725s +0.575 +0.39%

Feeder Cattle May 19 150.575s +0.350 +0.23%

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 157.700s +0.975 +0.62%

 

Lean Hogs Apr 19 78.600s -0.425 -0.54%

Lean Hogs May 19 89.450s -1.550 -1.70%

Lean Hogs Jun 19 98.150s -0.825 -0.83%

 

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