Statistics Canada increased its forecast of the Canadian canola crop as many expected, but it was a stronger loonie and weaker soybeans that were the key cause for the slightly lower close in the November contract.
The Statistics Canada report today is a new way of judging the crop. It was based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada’s Field Crop Reporting Series and agroclimatic data.
With that, it put the canola crop at 14.4 million tonnes, up a little more than one million tonnes from the July estimate of 13.3 million. Last year’s crop, which was recently revised, was 16.4 million tonnes.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures jump on hopes for US export demand
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures jumped on hopes for U.S. export demand on Wednesday, while corn futures rose for a third day to extend a recovery from contract lows, analysts said.
The trade was expecting an increase and some believe the crop could yet be 15 million tonnes or more, so traders took today’s report in stride.
The Canadian dollar rose about a penny immediately following the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve that it would not raise interest rates this month, but then it fell back again and was little changed at the close. The Fed said international instability, including China’s slowing economy, and inflation still running below its target of two percent caused it to hold the line. It will need to see improved U.S. employment and stronger inflation to prompt a rate hike.
Soybeans and soy oil dipped a fraction on slow demand and worries that China might for the first time in years reduce its purchases of soybeans due to slower demand from its livestock feeding industry and its weaker currency.
Exports of American soybeans to China in recent months have been strong but crush margins in China are weak and Brazilian soybeans are cheaper than American product.
Corn fell more than one percent on pressure from the U.S. harvest and on profit taking after recent gains.
Wheat fell on corn’s weakness, on the ample domestic and global supply of wheat and on strong competition from cheap Bla
Turning back to the Statistics Canada report, it pegged the spring wheat crop at 18.4 million tonnes, up from the July estimate of almost 18 million, but still down from last year’s 21.3 million.
The average spring wheat yield was seen at 40.5 bushels per acre, down from last year’s 45.9 bu. Wheat yield is expected to be down about 20 percent in Alberta due to the drought, and down 14 percent in Saskatchewan where it was also dry in western regions. Manitoba wheat yield is expected to increase seven percent over last year.
Durum production was pegged at 4.8 million tonnes, up from 4.47 million in the July report but down from 5.19 million last year.
The average canola yield is expected to be 32.6 bushels an acre, down from 35.1 bu. last year.
Barley production is expected at seven million tonnes, down from 7.3 million in July and oats production was pegged at 3.2 million tonnes down slightly from 3.3 million in July.
StatsCan will still issue its regular crop forecast based on a farmer survey on Oct. 2.
It is testing out the new process to determine if it can replace the survey based report.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 25 cents to US$46.90 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.84 cents, down from 75.88 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3186.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 23.38 points, or 0.17 percent, at 13,787.16.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 65.27 points, or 0.39 percent, to 16,674.68, the S&P 500 lost 5.11 points, or 0.26 percent, to 1,990.2 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.71 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,893.95.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 470.30 -2.70 -0.57%
Canola Jan 2016 475.20 -2.50 -0.52%
Canola Mar 2016 477.30 -2.40 -0.50%
Canola May 2016 477.70 -2.20 -0.46%
Canola Jul 2016 477.60 -2.00 -0.42%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 232.00 -2.00 -0.85%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 237.00 -2.00 -0.84%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 242.00 -2.00 -0.82%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 340.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 340.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 345.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Barley Oct 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 186.00 unch 0.00%
Soybeans Nov 2015 884.5 -2.75 -0.31%
Soybeans Jan 2016 888.75 -2.25 -0.25%
Soybeans Mar 2016 892 -1.25 -0.14%
Soybeans May 2016 894.75 -0.25 -0.03%
Soybeans Jul 2016 898.75 unch 0.00%
Soybeans Aug 2016 898 +0.5 +0.06%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 313.2 -3.1 -0.98%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 312.3 -3.1 -0.98%
Soybean Meal Jan 2016 310.6 -2.8 -0.89%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 26.67 -0.01 -0.04%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 26.87 -0.02 -0.07%
Soybean Oil Jan 2016 27.19 -0.02 -0.07%
Corn Dec 2015 379.75 -6.25 -1.62%
Corn Mar 2016 391 -6.25 -1.57%
Corn May 2016 398.5 -6 -1.48%
Corn Jul 2016 403.75 -5.5 -1.34%
Corn Sep 2016 397 -5 -1.24%
Oats Dec 2015 231.75 -2 -0.86%
Oats Mar 2016 234.5 -1 -0.42%
Oats May 2016 236.75 -0.75 -0.32%
Oats Jul 2016 237.75 -0.75 -0.31%
Oats Sep 2016 237.75 -0.75 -0.31%
Wheat Dec 2015 481.5 -6.75 -1.38%
Wheat Mar 2016 488.5 -6.75 -1.36%
Wheat May 2016 493.5 -7 -1.40%
Wheat Jul 2016 497.5 -7.25 -1.44%
Wheat Sep 2016 506 -8 -1.56%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 510.25 -6.25 -1.21%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 524.5 -6.5 -1.22%
Spring Wheat May 2016 534.5 -6.5 -1.20%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 544.75 -6.5 -1.18%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 555.25 -6 -1.07%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 479.25 -7.25 -1.49%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 493.5 -7.5 -1.50%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 503.5 -7.25 -1.42%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 512.75 -7.25 -1.39%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 527 -7 -1.31%
