Canola dips Tuesday; India issues pulse crop estimate

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Published: September 26, 2017

Canola futures stalled out on Tuesday, giving back most of the modest gains it had made over the past week.

Canola futures are in a holding pattern generally. with the bearish effects of a record large crop offset by expectations of good demand.

Soybeans also dipped Tuesday with pressure coming from advancing harvest and expectations of good Midwest weather.

All U.S. crop markets were slightly lower.

U.S. soybean harvest was 10 percent complete as of Sunday, while 11 percent of U.S. corn has been harvested, according to the weekly USDA crop progress report late Monday.

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The market is adjusting ahead of Friday’s USDA quarterly stocks report.

Soybeans have been supported recently by concerns about dry weather in central Brazil.

Forecasts today indicate that the driest areas could get welcome rain in the coming seven days.

PRAIRIE WEATHER

The outlook for the rest of this week is mostly dry with temperatures rising at times into the 20s C.

Temperatures drop again early next week with a system that is expected to bring significant rain to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan and lesser amounts in the rest of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

INDIA PULSES

India released its first official estimate of summer crop production.

It pegged pulse production at 8.71 million tonnes, slightly off the government’s target of 8.75 million.

It was down 7.5 percent from last year’s record large crop, but still the second largest ever.

One category of the summer pulse crop, tur or pigeon peas, is down 16.5 percent from last year, but it too would be the second largest tur crop ever.

India produced a huge pulse crop last year and it is expected to have a large carry over making for ample supply at least through the first half of the year and maybe beyond that.

Although nationwide the monsoon accumulated rains are only a little off of the forecast, the north central region is drier.

The winter pulse crop that will be planted in coming weeks tends to be about 50 percent larger than the summer crop.

The monsoon retreats at about this time every year, leaving the winter pulse crop mostly reliant on the moisture built up during the rainy season.

The large supply of pulses in India has lead to a slower than normal pace of pulse exports from Canada in the first seven weeks of the crop year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 34 cents at US$51.88 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.97 cents, up from 80.83 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2350.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index finished down 42.11 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 15,474.12.

U.S. stock markets were little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 10.05 points, or 0.05 percent, to 22,286.04, the S&P 500 gained 0.23 points, or 0.01 percent, to 2,496.89 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.57 points, or 0.15 percent, to 6,380.16.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   492.00s   -3.30   -0.67%

Canola Jan 18   498.60s   -3.20   -0.64%

Canola Mar 18   503.10s   -3.50   -0.69%

Canola May 18   505.50s   -3.80   -0.75%

Canola Jul 18 506.60s   -3.80   -0.74%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   235.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Dec 17   237.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Mar 18   243.00s   unch   unch

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   279.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   283.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   286.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   963-4s   -7-6   -0.80%

Soybeans Jan 18   974-0s   -7-6   -0.79%

Soybeans Mar 18   983-4s   -7-2   -0.73%

Soybeans May 18   992-0s   -7-2   -0.73%

Soybeans Jul 18   999-4s   -6-4   -0.65%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   308.8s   -1.3   -0.42%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   313.1s   -1.2   -0.38%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   315.3s   -1.1   -0.35%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   33.23s   -0.55   -1.63%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   33.45s   -0.56   -1.65%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.62s   -0.55   -1.61%

 

Corn Dec 17   352-2s   -1-4   -0.42%

Corn Mar 18   365-2s   -1-2   -0.34%

Corn May 18   373-6s   -1-0   -0.27%

Corn Jul 18   381-0s   -0-6   -0.20%

Corn Sep 18   387-6s   -0-4   -0.13%

 

Oats Dec 17   250-2s   -0-4   -0.20%

Oats Mar 18   254-6s   -0-6   -0.29%

Oats May 18   253-6s   -1-4   -0.59%

Oats Jul 18   249-6s   -3-2   -1.28%

Oats Sep 18   249-6s   -3-2   -1.28%

 

Wheat Dec 17   453-6s   -0-2   -0.06%

Wheat Mar 18   473-4s   -0-2   -0.05%

Wheat May 18   487-0s   unch   unch

Wheat Jul 18   498-4s   +1-0   +0.20%

Wheat Sep 18   512-4s   +0-6   +0.15%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   646-0s   -2-6   -0.42%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   658-6s   -2-0   -0.30%

Spring Wheat May 18   661-6s   -1-6   -0.26%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   659-2s   -1-6   -0.26%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   643-6s   -2-2   -0.35%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   452-2s   -1-6   -0.39%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   470-0s   -2-0  -0.42%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   483-0s   -1-4   -0.31%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   500-0s   -1-4   -0.30%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   518-4s   -1-2   -0.24%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   108.275s   -0.950   -0.87%

Live Cattle Dec 17   113.475s   -0.950   -0.83%

Live Cattle Feb 18   117.275s   +0.025   +0.02%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   150.575s   +0.100   +0.07%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   150.650s   -0.950   -0.63%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   152.275s   -0.850   -0.56%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   55.250s   -1.075   -1.91%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.100s   +0.675   +1.18%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   63.150s   +0.550   +0.88%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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