Crop markets on Friday focused on USDA’s estimate of strong feed demand for corn and mostly ignored the department’s take on U.S soybean ending stocks.
Canola futures fell today, pressured by lower soybean oil futures and by a slightly stronger loonie. Elevator hedge selling to cover farmer deliveries and profit taking added to the pressure.
May closed at $627.80, down $5.40. November closed at $561.80, down $5.90.
For the week May climbed $10.20 while November rose only 50 cents a tonne.
The USDA report triggered a little trading but was not a real market mover.
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Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
Traders had expected USDA to increase its U.S. corn ending stocks to reflect weak exports, but while the department did cut its export number, it balanced it by an increased estimate of livestock feed demand. While there might be fewer cattle in feedlots, there is strong demand from chicken and hog feeders.
The corn feed use number was a little bearish for wheat because some had expected that feeders might switch to cheaper wheat.
Analysts expected USDA to cut domestic soybean year end stocks to reflect exports that are exceeding the pace needed to meet the USDA export estimate. USDA did not cut stocks today, but might be forced to in future reports.
U.S. soybean exports remain higher than expected because of congestion at Brazilian ports. Also, dockworkers in Brazil have announced an intention to strike for the day on March 19.
USDA did not cut South American production as traders had expected. Several Argentine forecasts put the soybean crop at less than 50 million tonnes, but USDA only trimmed it to 51.5 million.
USDA increased its outlook for U.S. and global wheat ending stocks.
The wheat market had already fallen hard this week on improved moisture in the U.S. Plains and on expectations of larger global wheat production in 2013-14. On the week, the Chicago soft wheat contract fell 3.3 percent.
However, the fall for the old crop stopped Thursday when the weekly U.S. wheat export tally was larger than expected. Today, old crop Minneapolis spring wheat edged higher, but new crop fell.
USDA Highlights:
Corn ending stocks unchanged at 632 mln bu. down from trade est. of 643 mln bu., still a 17-year low. Feb USDA was 632 mln bu.
US wheat ending stocks increased to 716 mln bu., up from trade est. of 704 mln. Feb USDA was 691 mln bu.
US soybean ending stocks unchanged at 125 mln bu., up from trade est. of 120 mln. Feb USDA was 125 mln bu.
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World wheat ending stocks pegged at 178.23 mln T, up from trade est. of 176.548 mln. Feb USDA was 176.73 mln T.
World corn ending stocks set at 117.48 mln T, down from trade est. of 117.793 mln. Feb USDA was 118.04 mln T.
USDA pegged world soybean ending stocks at 60.21 mln T, up from trade est. of 59.448 mln. Feb USDA was 60.12 mln T.
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Argentina’s corn crop pegged at 26.5 mln T, up from trade est. of 25.452 mln. Feb USDA was 27.0 mln T.
USDA pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 51.5 mln T, up from trade est. of 50.871 mln. Feb USDA was 53.0 mln T.
Brazil’s corn crop was unchanged at 72.5 mln T, up from trade est. of 72.343 mln. Feb USDA was 72.5 mln T.
Brazil’s soybean crop was unchanged at 83.5 mln T, up from trade est. of 83.145 mln. Feb USDA was 83.5 mln T.
Closing prices
Winnipeg ICE Futures priced in dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 13 $634.70 -$8.00 -1.24%
Canola May 13 $627.80 -$5.40 -0.85%
Canola Jul 13 $616.60 -$5.70 -0.92%
Canola Nov 13 $561.80 -$5.90 -1.04%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $289, unchanged
Milling Wheat May 13 $292, unchanged
Milling Wheat Jul 13 $294, unchanged
Milling Wheat Oct 13 $294, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $307, unchanged
Durum Wheat May 13 $311, unchanged
Durum Wheat Jul 13 $314, unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 13 $299.30, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $242, unchanged
Barley May 13 $243, unchanged
Barley Jul 13 $243.5, unchanged
Barley Oct 13 $243.5, unchanged
U.S. crop prices in cents per bushel
Chicago
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 1508.5 +5.0 +0.33%
Soybeans (P) May 13 1471 -2.5 -0.17%
Soybeans (P) Jul 13 1447.25 -6.5 -0.45%
Soybeans (P) Aug 13 1404 -10.5 -0.74%
Soybeans (P) Sep 13 1322.25 -11.75 -0.88%
Soybeans (P) Nov 13 1268.5 -9.5 -0.74%
Corn (P) Mar 13 725.25 +13.75 +1.93%
Corn (P) May 13 703.5 +13.25 +1.92%
Corn (P) Jul 13 680.5 +8.0 +1.19%
Corn (P) Sep 13 571.25 +8.0 +1.42%
Corn (P) Dec 13 547 +4.75 +0.88%
Oats (P) Mar 13 404.25 +9.25 +2.34%
Oats (P) May 13 388 +3.5 +0.91%
Oats (P) Jul 13 380 +1.75 +0.46%
Oats (P) Sep 13 369.75 +0.25 +0.07%
Oats (P) Dec 13 363 +0.5 +0.14%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Mar 13 806.25, unchanged
Spring Wheat May 13 792 -3-4 -0.44%
Spring Wheat Jul 13 791.5 -3-4 -0.44%
Spring Wheat Sep 13 791.5 -2-2 -0.28%
Spring Wheat Dec 13 796.75 -2-6 -0.34%
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 97.34 cents US, up from 97.07 cents on Thursday. The U.S. buck was $1.0273 Cdn.
Nearby crude oil in New York rose 39 cents to $91.95 per barrel.
Canada and U.S. issued stronger than expected February job reports today.
U.S. employment rose 236,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent, from 7.9 percent.
The Canadian economy created 50,700 positions in February, well above the expected 8,000. Unemployment stayed the same at 7.0 percent as more people participated in the labour market.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index climbed 9.09 points, or 0.07 percent, at 12,835.61.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 67.58 points, or 0.46 percent, to close at 14,397.07.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 6.92 points, or 0.45 percent, at 1,551.18.
The Nasdaq Composite Index ROSE 12.28 points, or 0.38 percent, to close at 3,244.37.
For the week, the TSX was up 0.8 percent, the Dow was up 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 was up 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq was up 2.4 percent.
