Canola futures mostly dropped on Monday as investors lightened long positions ahead of key crop reports Tuesday in Canada and the United States.
Statistics Canada will report on crop acreage tomorrow morning, with the trade expecting a slight increase in its canola estimate. But ultimately the acreage number will have less impact than yield and with dry weather continuing in much of the western Prairies, the yield outlook is declining.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release acreage and quarterly stocks reports on Tuesday.
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Rain was limited mostly to southern Manitoba during the weekend on the dry Canadian Prairies. Mid-week showers might offer slight, spotty relief but not enough to change the big picture.
Lightly traded July canola rose $11.20 to close at $523 per tonne. A trader said a commercial might have been caught short with deliveries starting this week.
Most-active November canola dropped $3 to $520.60 per tonne, in advance of the Statistics Canada acreage report. Also soy oil was lower.
Canola basis levels have improved in recent days indicating that exporters and processors need supply.
U.S. Chicago wheat hit a six month high and European wheat futures also surged for a third consecutive session, buoyed by concerns about rain-hit crops in the United States and potential damage from a hot spell in western Europe, traders said.
Meteorologists said wet conditions were forecast to persist in southern portions of the U.S. Midwest this week, slowing the harvest of soft red winter wheat
By contrast, in France, the EU’s top wheat producer, there is virtually no rain forecast in the next 10 days while temperatures are expected to reach record highs at between 30 and 40 degrees C in most of the country until at least Wednesday next week. It is also in high 30s in Germany
The hot spell for crops, which are at a crucial phase of grain filling, could lead to heat stress and hurt yields
However, brokers stressed the impact would vary widely between deep and shallow soils and crop varieties.
Chicago July wheat rose more than three percent while Minneapolis was up 1.38 percent.
Soybean futures ended mixed, with the front-month contract edging higher on short-covering while deferreds eased as traders took positions ahead of the USDA reports.
The front-month contract, which has risen for three sessions in a row, received additional support from better-than-expected export data
Soyoil futures weakened on pressure from declines in crude oil prices
The USDA reports, which will be released on Tuesday, were expected to show farmers planted a record 85.171 million acres of soybeans, up from the March estimates of 84.635 million
Analysts also expect that domestic soybean stocks as of June 1 totaled 670 million bushels, the largest for that time of year since 2008
Corn futures were mostly lower, reversing from earlier steep gains on pressure from profit taking ahead of the USDA reports.
Most corn contracts reached multimonth peaks during the session on worries that record U.S. rainfall over the past two months would reduce yield potential for the developing crop.
Wet conditions are forecast to persist in southern portions of the U.S. Midwest this week, threatening yield prospects for corn and soybeans there and slowing the harvest of soft red winter wheat, meteorologists said
U.S. corn and soybean conditions are still sliding as young plants sit in saturated soils after heavy rains fell across the central crop belt last week, grain analysts said on Monday before the government’s weekly crop progress report.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.30 to US$58.33 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.76 cents, down from 80.91 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2382.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 523.00 +11.20 +2.19%
Canola Nov 2015 520.60 -3.00 -0.57%
Canola Jan 2016 518.50 -3.20 -0.61%
Canola Mar 2016 516.00 -3.10 -0.60%
Canola May 2016 512.50 -2.90 -0.56%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 236.00 +7.00 +3.06%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 238.00 +4.00 +1.71%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 238.00 +4.00 +1.71%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 208.40 +4.00 +1.96%
Barley Oct 2015 203.40 +4.00 +2.01%
Barley Dec 2015 208.40 +4.00 +1.96%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 1002.5 +0.5 +0.05%
Soybeans Aug 2015 994.5 -3.25 -0.33%
Soybeans Sep 2015 984.5 -5 -0.51%
Soybeans Nov 2015 980 -6 -0.61%
Soybeans Jan 2016 985 -6.25 -0.63%
Soybeans Mar 2016 983.25 -7 -0.71%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 341.9 +0.6 +0.18%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 334 -0.8 -0.24%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 329 -0.6 -0.18%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 33.05 -0.17 -0.51%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 33.11 -0.2 -0.60%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 33.17 -0.21 -0.63%
Corn Jul 2015 383.25 -1.75 -0.45%
Corn Sep 2015 392 -0.5 -0.13%
Corn Dec 2015 402.25 +0.25 +0.06%
Corn Mar 2016 412.5 -0.25 -0.06%
Corn May 2016 418.5 -0.75 -0.18%
Oats Jul 2015 246 -13.5 -5.20%
Oats Sep 2015 256.75 -10.5 -3.93%
Oats Dec 2015 267 -6.5 -2.38%
Oats Mar 2016 271.75 -5.25 -1.90%
Oats May 2016 276 -5.25 -1.87%
Wheat Jul 2015 580.5 +18.25 +3.25%
Wheat Sep 2015 583.5 +15.5 +2.73%
Wheat Dec 2015 590.75 +14.75 +2.56%
Wheat Mar 2016 595.25 +12 +2.06%
Wheat May 2016 598.75 +10.5 +1.78%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 604 +8.25 +1.38%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 618.75 +9.5 +1.56%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 631.75 +9.5 +1.53%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 641.75 +9 +1.42%
Spring Wheat May 2016 648.5 +8.25 +1.29%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 571.5 +12.25 +2.19%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 581.5 +12.5 +2.20%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 600.25 +11.75 +2.00%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 612.5 +11 +1.83%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 620.5 +10.25 +1.68%
