Canola continues to fall

It still sucks to be canola.

A day after a presumably bullish Statistics Canada production report, canola futures fell again Friday, breaking step once more with almost all other North American crop futures.

Spring and hard red winter wheat futures rose more than 10 cents per bushel Friday, soybeans were up three cents and oats were up seven cents per bu., but canola fell another $1.30 per tonne to $418.30, continuing its journey beneath the $420 level that many had hoped was support. Soyoil, canola’s closest futures relationship, was also down on the day and the Canadian dollar was slightly higher.

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Being at contract lows and falling while other crop futures rise has many traders wondering how low canola can go. The usual harvest rush of crop to the elevator hasn’t begun yet in most areas, but few traders seem worried that StatsCan’s estimated sub-14 million tonne canola crop will worry markets any time soon.

However, some mid-winter canola basis level are reported to be showing more anxiety over supply, suggesting commercial users aren’t worried about getting canola, but some elevator companies might be concerned about guaranteeing crop flow once the 2013-14 glut is finally gone.

After the four-day U.S. Pro Farmer tour of the U.S. Midwest, the picture of the American situation is much clearer.

Pro Farmer is estimating U.S. soybean production at 3.81 billion bushels, based on average yields of 45.35 bu. per acre. The corn crop it estimates at 14.1 billion bu. based on an average yield of 169.3 bu. per acre.

The situation of various state corn crops is mixed, with Indiana and Illinois impressing tour members as possibly the best ever, while Iowa has a range of good to poor averaging “solid,” and the western and northern parts of the corn growing area showing mixed and average crops.

World stock markets were generally weaker as doubts about future U.S. interest rate policy and anxiety over Russia’s present incursion into Ukraine territory knocked traders from the generally positive feeling of the rest of the week.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 14    418.30    -1.30    -0.31%
Canola Jan 15    423.60    -1.30    -0.31%
Canola Mar 15    428.40    -1.60    -0.37%
Canola May 15    428.60    -1.50    -0.35%
Canola Jul 15    428.40    -1.10    -0.26%

Milling Wheat Oct 14    206.00    +4.00    +1.98%
Milling Wheat Dec 14    211.00    +4.00    +1.93%
Milling Wheat Mar 15    219.00    +4.00    +1.86%

Durum Wheat Oct 14    250.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 14    256.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 15    257.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 14    135.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 14    137.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 15    138.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 14    1166    +29.75    +2.62%
Soybeans Nov 14    1042    +3.75    +0.36%
Soybeans Jan 15    1048.75    +3.5    +0.33%
Soybeans Mar 15    1055    +2.75    +0.26%
Soybeans May 15    1059.5    +1.75    +0.17%

Soybean Meal Sep 14    433.3    +19.5    +4.71%
Soybean Meal Oct 14    367.1    +10.2    +2.86%
Soybean Meal Dec 14    352.7    +6.2    +1.79%

Soybean Oil Sep 14    32.36    -0.42    -1.28%
Soybean Oil Oct 14    32.4    -0.46    -1.40%
Soybean Oil Dec 14    32.6    -0.51    -1.54%

Corn Sep 14    365.5    +3.25    +0.90%
Corn Dec 14    371.5    +2.5    +0.68%
Corn Mar 15    384.25    +2.5    +0.65%
Corn May 15    392    +2.25    +0.58%
Corn Jul 15    398.5    +2    +0.50%

Oats Sep 14    384    +7.75    +2.06%
Oats Dec 14    355.25    +7    +2.01%
Oats Mar 15    339.25    +7.75    +2.34%
Oats May 15    328.5    +6    +1.86%
Oats Jul 15    324.25    +6    +1.89%

Wheat Sep 14    552    +5.75    +1.05%
Wheat Dec 14    562.25    +6.75    +1.22%
Wheat Mar 15    580.25    +8    +1.40%
Wheat May 15    589.25    +7.25    +1.25%
Wheat Jul 15    596    +6.75    +1.15%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 14    626.75    +11    +1.79%
Spring Wheat Dec 14    634.5    +11.5    +1.85%
Spring Wheat Mar 15    644.5    +10.5    +1.66%
Spring Wheat May 15    653.25    +10.5    +1.63%
Spring Wheat Jul 15    660.5    +10.5    +1.62%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 14    633.5    +11.5    +1.85%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 14    644    +11.75    +1.86%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 15    652    +11.75    +1.84%
Hard Red Wheat May 15    654.25    +10.5    +1.63%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 15    644    +10    +1.58%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 31 cents at $93.65 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.32 cents US, down from 91.34 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0950 Cdn.