It still sucks to be canola.
A day after a presumably bullish Statistics Canada production report, canola futures fell again Friday, breaking step once more with almost all other North American crop futures.
Spring and hard red winter wheat futures rose more than 10 cents per bushel Friday, soybeans were up three cents and oats were up seven cents per bu., but canola fell another $1.30 per tonne to $418.30, continuing its journey beneath the $420 level that many had hoped was support. Soyoil, canola’s closest futures relationship, was also down on the day and the Canadian dollar was slightly higher.
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Being at contract lows and falling while other crop futures rise has many traders wondering how low canola can go. The usual harvest rush of crop to the elevator hasn’t begun yet in most areas, but few traders seem worried that StatsCan’s estimated sub-14 million tonne canola crop will worry markets any time soon.
However, some mid-winter canola basis level are reported to be showing more anxiety over supply, suggesting commercial users aren’t worried about getting canola, but some elevator companies might be concerned about guaranteeing crop flow once the 2013-14 glut is finally gone.
After the four-day U.S. Pro Farmer tour of the U.S. Midwest, the picture of the American situation is much clearer.
Pro Farmer is estimating U.S. soybean production at 3.81 billion bushels, based on average yields of 45.35 bu. per acre. The corn crop it estimates at 14.1 billion bu. based on an average yield of 169.3 bu. per acre.
The situation of various state corn crops is mixed, with Indiana and Illinois impressing tour members as possibly the best ever, while Iowa has a range of good to poor averaging “solid,” and the western and northern parts of the corn growing area showing mixed and average crops.
World stock markets were generally weaker as doubts about future U.S. interest rate policy and anxiety over Russia’s present incursion into Ukraine territory knocked traders from the generally positive feeling of the rest of the week.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 14 418.30 -1.30 -0.31%
Canola Jan 15 423.60 -1.30 -0.31%
Canola Mar 15 428.40 -1.60 -0.37%
Canola May 15 428.60 -1.50 -0.35%
Canola Jul 15 428.40 -1.10 -0.26%
Milling Wheat Oct 14 206.00 +4.00 +1.98%
Milling Wheat Dec 14 211.00 +4.00 +1.93%
Milling Wheat Mar 15 219.00 +4.00 +1.86%
Durum Wheat Oct 14 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 14 256.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 15 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 14 135.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 14 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 15 138.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 14 1166 +29.75 +2.62%
Soybeans Nov 14 1042 +3.75 +0.36%
Soybeans Jan 15 1048.75 +3.5 +0.33%
Soybeans Mar 15 1055 +2.75 +0.26%
Soybeans May 15 1059.5 +1.75 +0.17%
Soybean Meal Sep 14 433.3 +19.5 +4.71%
Soybean Meal Oct 14 367.1 +10.2 +2.86%
Soybean Meal Dec 14 352.7 +6.2 +1.79%
Soybean Oil Sep 14 32.36 -0.42 -1.28%
Soybean Oil Oct 14 32.4 -0.46 -1.40%
Soybean Oil Dec 14 32.6 -0.51 -1.54%
Corn Sep 14 365.5 +3.25 +0.90%
Corn Dec 14 371.5 +2.5 +0.68%
Corn Mar 15 384.25 +2.5 +0.65%
Corn May 15 392 +2.25 +0.58%
Corn Jul 15 398.5 +2 +0.50%
Oats Sep 14 384 +7.75 +2.06%
Oats Dec 14 355.25 +7 +2.01%
Oats Mar 15 339.25 +7.75 +2.34%
Oats May 15 328.5 +6 +1.86%
Oats Jul 15 324.25 +6 +1.89%
Wheat Sep 14 552 +5.75 +1.05%
Wheat Dec 14 562.25 +6.75 +1.22%
Wheat Mar 15 580.25 +8 +1.40%
Wheat May 15 589.25 +7.25 +1.25%
Wheat Jul 15 596 +6.75 +1.15%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 14 634.5 +11.5 +1.85%
Spring Wheat Mar 15 644.5 +10.5 +1.66%
Spring Wheat May 15 653.25 +10.5 +1.63%
Spring Wheat Jul 15 660.5 +10.5 +1.62%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 14 633.5 +11.5 +1.85%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 14 644 +11.75 +1.86%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 15 652 +11.75 +1.84%
Hard Red Wheat May 15 654.25 +10.5 +1.63%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 15 644 +10 +1.58%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 31 cents at $93.65 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.32 cents US, down from 91.34 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0950 Cdn.
